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a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman sunday august 31 2014 was an industrial revolution inevitable part three let s not ask whether the industrial revolution was inevitable let s ask something a little less hypothetical why england and why around 1800 the answer of course is money production and consumption both depend on spending spending can t happen without money so if you want an inexplicable increase of industry you re going to need a matchingly inexplicable growth of funding i suppose you could say supply creates its own demand and a doubling of output generates a doubling of income and you know during the era we call the industrial revolution you just might be right for nothing short of the exuberance of the greatest age of the inducement to investment could have made it possible to lose sight of the theoretical possibility of its insufficiency still the doubling of income comes during or after the doubling of output not before so where does the money come to increase output in the first place so that income may increase enough to sustain the higher level of output but maybe i shouldn t be calling it money maybe i should be calling it accumulated financial capital money people would want to sink into new ventures if they had it so where does that money come from from government spending perhaps government spending is the source of private sector net assets government spending could have been a catalyst providing the funds to generate a doubling of output and another doubling and more till the process took on a life of its own government spending as catalyst the following is brought forward from mine of 31 august 2010 tweaked just a tad graph 1 you see in graph 1 a mountain of united kingdom debt spanning two centuries and more remarkably that mountain of debt occurred at the same time as the industrial revolution and the same time as the rise and reign of the british empire to expand upon coincidence the two centuries of the mountain of u k debt completely envelop the 150 years keynes called the greatest age of the inducement to invest as i noted in an earlier post one is almost forced to wonder whether that mountain of debt actually helped the economy along encouraging the industrial revolution and leading britain to the top of the heap four years ago when i wrote the above paragraph i did not know there was the question why england and why around 1800 so four years ago i said one is almost forced to wonder about a relation between england s public debt and the industrial revolution now i know there is that question so now i will say why england because of the public debt why 1800 because of the public debt graph 2 outrageous thought maybe maybe not numbers from measuringworth show gdp increasing at an accelerating pace in the early years of the industrial revolution the 2nd and 3rd dots on the trendline at right years 1759 and 1801 show the awakening of growth the 4th 5th and 6th dots 1811 1821 and 1830 show accelerating gdp growth the sharpest growth occurs in the 1821 1830 period just as the uk s mountain of debt peaks and begins its descent so the general trend was a steep increase in debt from 1700 to 1820 and after more than a century of persistent increase in public debt gdp was growing like never before graph 3 debt numbers for graph 3 come from robert j barro in macroeconomics a modern approach chapter 14 page 342 barro s mountain figure 14 2 page 344 is smaller than chantrill s graph 1 above but both show a mountain when debt is compared to gdp this look at the raw numbers shows that public debt in the uk did not peak it simply stabilized after 1820 it was the growth of gdp that made public debt seem to shrink the increase in government debt comes before the increase in growth we have public debt increasing 1740 1790 increasing rapidly 1790 1820 then stabilizing at a high level we have real gdp stable before 1759 increasing slightly at the beginning of the industrial revolution 1759 1811 accelerating 1811 1830 and then achieving the sort of growth we long for today we have the increase in public debt first followed by the increase in gdp then there is an acceleration of public debt first followed by acceleration in gdp and then we have public debt stabilizing while gdp growth continues causing the long decline in debt as a percent of gdp that appears on graph 1 in these events we witness the birth of capitalism the industrial revolution began in england around the year 1800 why because society was ready and technology was ready but most of all because net financial assets were available in sufficient quantity posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 10 comments saturday august 30 2014 was an industrial revolution inevitable part two today s post is a direct continuation from yesterday s gregory clark s paper is the sixteen page economic history of the world recommended by integralds at reddit on page three of his paper gregory clark writes thus world economic history poses three interconnected problems why did the malthusian trap persist for so long why did the initial escape from that trap in the industrial revolution occur on one tiny island england in 1800 why was there the consequent great divergence this book proposes an swers to all three of these puzzles answers that point up the connections among them the explanation for both the timing and the nature of the in dustrial revolution and at least in part for the great divergence lies in pro cesses that began thousands of years ago deep in the malthusian era clark asks why did the initial escape from that trap in the industrial revolution occur on one tiny island england in 1800 integralds asks why britain why not japan china india or europe yeah so what does gregory clark have to say about it his is an odd analysis and i have some trouble with it because of the way i was brought up clark s processes that began thousands of years ago is a euphemism for ongoing human evolution for openers he writes in this model the economy of humans in the years before 1800 turns out to be just the natural economy of all animal species with the same kinds of factors determining the living conditions of animals and humans in the years before 1800 clark suggests we were still like dogs and cats and goldfish he writes the darwinian struggle that shaped human nature did not end with the neolithic revolution but continued right up until the industrial revolution note the darwinian struggle for gregory clark this is not a metaphor it is an explanation not only did we evolve from apes later we evolved from cave men we evolved from hunter gatherers into agricultural societies and then at least some of us evolved yet again and it became possible to have an industrial revolution and then i suppose we evolved further because we had an industrial revolution clark plays fast and loose with the concept of evolution for me human nature is human nature that s what makes us human for me human nature doesn t change i m not offering evidence to support my view i m just telling you what i have always thought i read something one time about hitler and his master race and how after world war two in the u s we have de emphasized the idea of genetic superiority as a causal factor and i think that s probably true and i think that s how i was raised and i have to say that for me the idea of human evolution as the cause of the industrial revolution is way off base clark writes for england we will see compelling evidence of differential survival of types in the years 1250 1800 in particular economic success translated powerfully into reproductive success the richest men had twice as many surviving chil dren at death as the poorest the poorest individuals in malthusian england had so few surviving children that their families were dying out the genes of poor people were filtered out of the gene pool and the genes of rich people spread i have trouble evaluating this idea because it s creepy plus i want to say it is wrong people are not poor because of their genes it s a there but for the grace of god thing you know those whose courage and initiative have not been supplemented by exceptional skill or unusual good fortune and yet clark seems to be backing his argument with data all i have is the word creepy clark the attributes that would ensure later economic dynamism patience hard work ingenuity innovativeness education were thus spread ing biologically throughout the population yeah i still have creepy clark softens his touch saying the economy of the preindustrial era was shaping people at least culturally and perhaps also genetically emphasis added perhaps but i cannot evaluate the merits of his idea what i can say is it s not my kind of economics economists always seem to want to manipulate people to change people s behavior in particular ways so as to create particular economic effects i think that s bullshit i think the economists who do that are the ones who don t have a clue about the economy and that s just what gregory clark is doing with evolution one more quote from clark this must be the one integralds had in mind why an industrial revolution in england why not china india or japan the answer hazarded here is that england s advantages were not coal not colonies not the protestant reformation not the enlightenment but the accidents of institutional stability and demography in particular the extraordinary stability of england back to at least 1200 the slow growth of english population between 1300 and 1760 and the extraordinary fecundity of the rich and economically successful the embedding of bourgeois values into the culture and perhaps even the genetics was for these reasons the most advanced in england fecundity and genetics and values oh my posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 6 comments friday august 29 2014 was an industrial revolution inevitable part one i know i just dissed reddit and now i m back well it s not like that really i went back to reddit because i was working on this industrial revolution post this one right here and while i was at reddit i read the rules and took offense to rule two i think those rules were recently changed maybe not maybe i ve been going there for n years and never noticed rule two before i don t think so maybe i m being overly sensitive i don t think so maybe i am thanks g but anyway that s not why we re here right now i went back to r economics for the discussion at the link mberre put up was an industrial revolution inevitable economic growth over the very long run who could resist a title like that not me besides the discussion there s a link to a 54 page pdf by charles i jones bearing the same title as mberre s link it is an nber working paper paper 7375 dated october 1999 and i should get this out of the way first thing the paper is 1999 by charles i jones all rights reserved having said that it seems i am now allowed to quote short sections not over two paragraphs in length without first getting permission i want to quote a short section from the introduction of the jones paper conservative estimates suggest that humans were already distinguishable from other primates 1 million years ago imagine placing a time line corresponding to this million year period along the length of a football field on this time line humans were hunters and gatherers until the agricultural revolution perhaps 10 000 years ago that is for the first 99 yards of the field the height of the roman empire occurs only 7 inches from the rightmost goal line and the industrial revolution begins less than one inch from the field s end large sustained increases in standards of living our working definition of an industrial revolution have occurred during a relatively short time equivalent to the width of a golf ball resting at the end of a football field i like that imagery let me jump back now from the jones pdf to the discussion at mberre s link no says integralds you will not drag me into an industrial revolution discussion today but this paper gives me ideas for an article of the week around november december you can tell from reading his stuff integralds has the perspectives of an economist nobody s gonna boot his stuff off the site you can tell he s good you can t i can t tell he s a he but i...
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