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nitiating limited reforms that get out of hand and selecting a covert democrat as leader these mistakes reflect well known cognitive biases such as overconfidence and the illusion of control 164 sharun mukand and dani rodrik dispute that elite driven democratization produce liberal democracy they argue that low levels of inequality and weak identity cleavages are necessary for liberal democracy to emerge 165 a 2020 study by several political scientists from german universities found that democratization through bottom up peaceful protests led to higher levels of democracy and democratic stability than democratization prompted by elites 166 the three dictatorship types monarchy civilian and military have different approaches to democratization as a result of their individual goals monarchic and civilian dictatorships seek to remain in power indefinitely through hereditary rule in the case of monarchs or through oppression in the case of civilian dictators a military dictatorship seizes power to act as a caretaker government to replace what they consider a flawed civilian government military dictatorships are more likely to transition to democracy because at the onset they are meant to be stop gap solutions while a new acceptable government forms 167 168 169 research suggests that the threat of civil conflict encourages regimes to make democratic concessions a 2016 study found that drought induced riots in sub saharan africa lead regimes fearing conflict to make democratic concessions 170 scrambled constituencies edit mancur olson theorizes that the process of democratization occurs when elites are unable to reconstitute an autocracy olson suggests that this occurs when constituencies or identity groups are mixed within a geographic region he asserts that this mixed geographic constituencies requires elites to for democratic and representative institutions to control the region and to limit the power of competing elite groups 171 death or ouster of dictator edit one analysis found that compared with other forms of leadership turnover in autocracies such as coups elections or term limits which lead to regime collapse about half of the time the death of a dictator is remarkably inconsequential of the 79 dictators who have died in office 1946 2014 in the vast majority 92 of cases the regime persists after the autocrat s death 172 women s suffrage edit one of the critiques of huntington s periodization is that it doesn t give enough weight to universal suffrage 173 174 pamela paxton argues that once women s suffrage is taken into account the data reveal a long continuous democratization period from 1893 1958 with only war related reversals 175 international factors edit war and national security edit jeffrey herbst in his paper war and the state in africa 1990 explains how democratization in european states was achieved through political development fostered by war making and these lessons from the case of europe show that war is an important cause of state formation that is missing in africa today 176 herbst writes that war and the threat of invasion by neighbors caused european state to more efficiently collect revenue forced leaders to improve administrative capabilities and fostered state unification and a sense of national identity a common powerful association between the state and its citizens 176 herbst writes that in africa and elsewhere in the non european world states are developing in a fundamentally new environment because they mostly gained independence without having to resort to combat and have not faced a security threat since independence 176 herbst notes that the strongest non european states south korea and taiwan are largely warfare states that have been molded in part by the near constant threat of external aggression 176 elizabeth kier has challenged claims that total war prompts democratization showing in the cases of the uk and italy during world war i that the policies adopted by the italian government prompted a fascist backlash whereas uk government policies towards labor undermined broader democratization 177 war and peace edit main article territorial peace theory two british marine commandos take protection behind debris during the capture of walcheren island during world war ii the link between war and democratization has been a focus of some theories wars may contribute to the state building that precedes a transition to democracy but war is mainly a serious obstacle to democratization while adherents of the democratic peace theory believe that democracy causes peace the territorial peace theory makes the opposite claim that peace causes democracy in fact war and territorial threats to a country are likely to increase authoritarianism and lead to autocracy this is supported by historical evidence showing that in almost all cases peace has come before democracy a number of scholars have argued that there is little support for the hypothesis that democracy causes peace but strong evidence for the opposite hypothesis that peace leads to democracy 178 179 180 christian welzel s human empowerment theory posits that existential security leads to emancipative cultural values and support for a democratic political organization 181 this is in agreement with theories based on evolutionary psychology the regality theory finds that people develop a psychological preference for a strong leader and an authoritarian form of government in situations of war or perceived collective danger on the other hand people will support egalitarian values and a preference for democracy in situations of peace and safety the consequence of this is that a society will develop in the direction of autocracy and an authoritarian government when people perceive collective danger while the development in the democratic direction requires collective safety 182 international institutions edit a number of studies have found that international institutions have helped facilitate democratization 183 184 185 thomas risse wrote in 2009 there is a consensus in the literature on eastern europe that the eu membership perspective had a huge anchoring effects for the new democracies 186 scholars have also linked nato expansion with playing a role in democratization 187 international forces can significantly affect democratization global forces like the diffusion of democratic ideas and pressure from international financial institutions to democratize have led to democratization 188 promotion foreign influence and intervention edit main article democracy promotion the european union has contributed to the spread of democracy in particular by encouraging democratic reforms in aspiring member states thomas risse wrote in 2009 there is a consensus in the literature on eastern europe that the eu membership perspective had a huge anchoring effects for the new democracies 186 steven levitsky and lucan way have argued that close ties to the west increased the likelihood of democratization after the end of the cold war whereas states with weak ties to the west adopted competitive authoritarian regimes 189 190 a 2002 study found that membership in regional organizations is correlated with transitions to democracy during the period from 1950 to 1992 191 a 2004 study found no evidence that foreign aid led to democratization 192 democracies have sometimes been imposed by military intervention for example in japan and germany after world war ii 193 194 in other cases decolonization sometimes facilitated the establishment of democracies that were soon replaced by authoritarian regimes for example syria after gaining independence from french mandatory control at the beginning of the cold war failed to consolidate its democracy so it eventually collapsed and was replaced by a ba athist dictatorship 195 robert dahl argued in on democracy that foreign interventions contributed to democratic failures citing soviet interventions in central and eastern europe and u s interventions in latin america 65 however the delegitimization of empires contributed to the emergence of democracy as former colonies gained independence and implemented democracy 65 geographic factors edit some scholars link the emergence and sustenance of democracies to areas with access to the sea which tends to increase the mobility of people goods capital and ideas 196 197 historical factors edit historical legacies edit in seeking to explain why north america developed stable democracies and latin america did not seymour martin lipset in the democratic century 2004 holds that the reason is that the initial patterns of colonization the subsequent process of economic incorporation of the new colonies and the wars of independence differ the divergent histories of britain and iberia are seen as creating different cultural legacies that affected the prospects of democracy 198 a related argument is presented by james a robinson in critical junctures and developmental paths 2022 199 sequencing and causality edit scholars have discussed whether the order in which things happen helps or hinders the process of democratization an early discussion occurred in the 1960s and 1970s dankwart rustow argued that the most effective sequence is the pursuit of national unity government authority and political equality in that order 200 eric nordlinger and samuel huntington stressed the importance of developing effective governmental institutions before the emergence of mass participation in politics 200 robert dahl in polyarchy participation and opposition 1971 held that the commonest sequence among the older and more stable polyarchies has been some approximation of the path in which competitive politics preceded expansion in participation 201 in the 2010s the discussion focused on the impact of the sequencing between state building and democratization francis fukuyama in political order and political decay 2014 echoes huntington s state first argument and holds that those countries in which democracy preceded modern state building have had much greater problems achieving high quality governance 202 this view has been supported by sheri berman who offers a sweeping overview of european history and concludes that sequencing matters and that without strong states liberal democracy is difficult if not impossible to achieve 203 however this state first thesis has been challenged relying on a comparison of denmark and greece and quantitative research on 180 countries across 1789 2019 haakon gjerløw carl henrik knutsen tore wig and matthew c wilson in one road to riches 2022 find little evidence to support the stateness first argument 204 based on a comparison of european and latin american countries sebastián mazzuca and gerardo munck in a middle quality institutional trap 2021 argue that counter to the state first thesis the starting point of political developments is less important than whether the state democracy relationship is a virtuous cycle triggering causal mechanisms that reinforce each 205 in sequences of democratization for many countries morrison et al found elections as the most frequent first element of the sequence of democratization but found this ordering does not necessarily predict successful democratization 206 the democratic peace theory claims that democracy causes peace while the territorial peace theory claims that peace causes democracy 207 notes edit in 1848 camillo benso count of cavour had formed a parliamentary group in the kingdom of sardinia parliament named the partito liberale italiano italian liberal party from 1860 with the unification of italy substantially realized and the death of cavour himself in 1861 the liberal party was split into at least two major factions or new parties later known as the destra storica on the right wing who substantially assembled the count of cavour s followers and political heirs and the sinistra storica on the left wing who mostly reunited the followers and sympathizers of giuseppe garibaldi and other former mazzinians the historical right destra storica and the historical left sinistra storica were composed of royalist liberals at the same time radicals organized themselves into the radical party and republicans into the italian republican party some historians suggest an earlier date for the conclusion of the transition 38 including the 1977 general election the 1978 constitution or the 1981 attempted coup one writer suggests the transition only concluded in 2006 with the end of consensus politics and the re emergence of open debate on divisive issues 39 references edit arugay aries a 2021 democratic transitions the palgrave encyclopedia of global security studies cham springer international publishing pp 1 7 doi 10 1007 978 3 319 74336 3_190 1 isbn 978 3 319 74336 3 s2cid 240235199 lindenfors patrik wilson matthew lindberg staffan i 2020 the matthew effect in political science head start and key reforms important for democratization humanities and social sciences communications 7 106 106 doi 10 1057 s41599 020 00596 7 schmitz hans peter 2004 domestic and transnational perspectives on democratization international studies review 6 3 international studies association wiley 403 426 doi 10 1111 j 1521 9488 2004 00423 x issn 1521 9488 jstor 3699697 bogaards matthijs 2010 measures of democratization from degree to type to war political research quarterly 63 2 university of utah sage publications 475 488 doi 10 1177 1065912909358578 issn 1065 9129 jstor 20721505 s2cid 154168435 global dashboard bti 2022 retrieved 17 april 2023 huntington samuel p 1991 democratization in the late 20th century norman university of oklahoma press renske doorenspleet reassessing the three waves of democratization world politics 52 3 2000 384 406 1 2 john markoff waves of democracy social movements and political change second edition new york routledge 2015 1 2 gunitsky seva 2018 democratic waves in historical perspective pdf perspectives on politics 16 3 634 651 doi 10 1017 s1537592718001044 issn 1537 5927 s2cid 149523316 archived pdf from the original on 26 december 2022 skaaning svend erik 2020 waves of autocratization and democratization a critical note on conceptualization and measurement democratization 27 8 1533 1542 doi 10 1080 13510347 2020 1799194 s2cid 225378571 miller michael k 2021 ch 2 shock to the system coups elections and war on the road to democratization princeton oxford princeton university press isbn 978 0 691 21701 7 miller michael k april 2021 don t call it a comeback autocratic ruling parties after democratization british journal of political science 51 2 559 583 doi 10 1017 s0007123419000012 issn 0007 1234 s2cid 203150075 1 2 berman sherri january 2007 how democracy works lessons from europe pdf journal of democracy archived from the original pdf on 11 february 2012 retrieved 17 april 2008 hegre håvard 15 may 2014 democratization and political violence ourworld unu edu retrieved 14 february 2021 1 2 andersen 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