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least how do you know an initial gradual start will stay smooth and gradual fig 2 avalanches start small grow fast avalanche strategy avalanches fig 2 begin with a tiny bit of snow rolling down a hill the core picks up volume excite other snow ice bits to move until the ensemble is a moving mass that cannot be stopped no one knows exactly what the end effects are how will the hill and valley be changed rule do not use an avalanche for landscape architecture results from the avalanche strategy cannot be predicted exactly this is unlike the ocean ship strategy there is no similar resistance to growth for a rolling sliding chip of ice and results are not gradual if the temperature slope and other factors are correct and if the initial material in motion can pick up enough momentum the result will be roaring growth to the slide chaotic change here change means a tumultuous jump from before the smooth slope with rocks and trees to after the final jumbled and torn landscape continue reading posted in general 1 comment iter 2 machine is being built will it work posted on 2017 08 11 by lasttechage fusion waste disposal is an issue that may limit iter s success the long awaited fusion test bed iter is under construction the facility buildings are well on the way towards completion and machine assembly should begin in the last months of 2018 we discussed the iter machine structure and various fusion concepts in our iter 1 post we will not repeat them here comment 1 iter timeline but note iter is not an acronym anymore it is okay to write it iter or iter or iter comment 1 is the currently expected schedule for iter operations the official timeline is reasonable the 2025 and 2035 targets allow for a reasonable break in with this new machine assumptions behind the personal estimates no operating issues arise during start up trials 1 operation schedules base on impatience pushing boundaries without checking in the 1980s the fusion flagship tftr powered up its tf coils too high and too soon one of their big coils broke issues 2 hoping without testing iter is a major jump in capabilities what if long lived fusion hot plasma is operates somewhat differently from short pulse hot plasma comment 2 issues this post is based on an issue that might violate assumption 2 plasma operates as anticipated see comment 2 our question do the techniques chosen to remove waste heat power and particles form a basic issue that is a background worry to the physics staff maybe the technique to remove the waste heat and particles that flow from the fusion region relies on an array of divertors that is on the material surfaces that the plasma strikes first will divertor operation become an functional issue this is what we discuss iter has a potentially serious divertor issue fig 1 iter cross section with field lines waste heat the intense heat from the fusion core will conduct out to its edge the separatrix and will cross into the unconfined field volume called the scrape off layer sol in fig 1 the separatrix is the green field line with the sharp point it separates the confined plasma from the unconfined the sol is the dark brown much cooler plasma outside the separatrix see iter 1 for a more complete description of the tokamak most of the heat flows along the separatrix and out through its point but some will enter the sol to cause wall erosion wall atoms can will diffuse into the plasma absorb energy radiate like mad cool the plasma and quench the fusion waste ash what is left over from a fusion reaction is a neutron which has four fifths 80 of the energy the other one fifth 20 of fusion energy is very high energy helium nucleus called an alpha particle usually written α continue reading posted in technology tagged doublet iii expanded boundary fusion ash iter iter divertor iter timeline jaeri diverted plasma snowflake divertor steady state iter super x divertor leave a comment iter 1 the international fusion test facility posted on 2017 08 11 by lasttechage iter will begin fusion tests within a decade we discuss this huge machine the long awaited fusion test bed the international thermonuclear experimental reactor is under construction in cadarache france iter is an hour 70 km north of marseilles south eastern france not far from the mediterranean the facility construction is on going in france and the machine components are being assembled all around the world the iter team has ambitious goals this is to be the first magnetic fusion machine to hold a stable plasma for 10 minutes they plan to extend operations to 1000 seconds abut 16 minutes the fuel will be deuterium d and tritium t d is a stable type of hydrogen h twice as heavy as h fusion techniques are discussed toward the end of stirring the pot comment 1 fusion terms it will reach fusion temperatures about 150 m c 300 m f and ignite their goal is to use their ignited plasma to generate 500 mw of output power with a device efficiency of q p output p input 10 see comment 1 this exceeds the previous record set 1997 at the jet tokamak jet p output 16 mw q 0 67 this is hotter than any welding torch in any shop anywhere hotter than the center of the sun good thing too since the sun has to last tens of billions of years if the sun had iter temperatues it would last only a small fraction of that in this post we describe the iter tokamak in our next iter post we will use this discussion to describe a potential design feature that may limit the success of the program though not until they have tried to reach their goals of fusion temperature efficiency q and burn times 15 20 years from now iter overview iter the pronunciation most people in the business say eat er you are allowed to say it anyway you want just be consistent iter the acronym the program started up in 1988 as the international thermonuclear experimental reactor it was an english abbreviation and the central words were thermonuclear and experimental although pretty good the word nuclear had to go sketch a torus donut shape the t stands for thermonuclear and could have been changeable to tokamak its shape is a torus sketch a looks like a bagel a donut or a car tire the e is the important part this machine is truly an experiment to test out ideas not a prototype for a mass produced product like a car but after 120 years of building automobiles companies that release a new model require thousands of prototype parts and vehicles for destructive testing thousands not going to happen definitely not a prototype iter the history it started in 1988 as a joint venture of 4 countries the u s pulled out maybe a decade ago then rejoined nearly withdrew during the obama days our doe just lost significant funding want to make a bet on our presence 4 years from now brexit may remove the last english speaking country the countries currently on its guiding council are shown in the logo soon there might be no english speaking countries left so disconnect the name from a living language voilá iter is no longer an acronym it is okay to write it iter or iter iter is the chosen name because it is dead latin for the way iter the tokamak iter s goal is to generate 500 mw of fusion power support a fusion burn that lasts for 10 minutes they will try for 1000 seconds about 16 min and produce 10 times more power than used by the facility q 10 the machine to ultimately perform these is shown in fig 1 the left side shows its interior lined with its protective first wall blanket the right side depicts the blanket being installed fig 1 iter cutaway man lower left fig 2 thin slice through iter showing the key features click any figure to see a full sized image the colors are for identification unless someone uses a paintbrush the actual iter will be metal toned from dull to shiny gray unless otherwise stated the source of the figures originate with iter org we have modified and colorized most but the basic drawings for the images are from iter organization fig 2 is a thin slice out of fig 1 continue reading posted in technology tagged fusion reactor fusion timeline ignition iter tokamak divertor leave a comment if i explain they will accept uh umm posted on 2017 08 09 by lasttechage today s skepticalscience com has a link to one of katharine hayhoe s latest videos facts don t convince this video fig 1 is a very solid description on why you cannot come up to someone just explain the technical facts about something then expect them to change their ideas change their acceptances their beliefs their feelings of happiness or anger fig 1 opening screen to a very grown up presentation this is very true and the person becomes less amenable to facts the more technical training they have she uses global warming as her topic but it is true throughout all experience her reasons are _ well watch it for yourself fig 2 global weirding start screen katharine is one sharp person who has been the topic two of lasttechage posts she is an evangelical christian and an important climate scientist i think i have her correct order of importance though i have never met her nor had any kind of communication oh brother do i agree with her discussion our last two global warming posts were not to change anyone s attitude but to explain to those who want to accept the inevitable that it is okay to say that climate change destruction is new horrible and is our doings postscript i refer to her here as katharine because normal americans are uncomfortable with dr whatsthename same kind of reason i sign off as charles although i actually go by either charlie or dr armentrout more people than imagined by my younger self have an uncomfortable even hostile response to my preferred personal name charles j armentrout ann arbor 2017 aug 9 this is listed under natural resources in the global warming thread have a comment click on the title of this post go to bottom let us know related posts click the index button under the banner picture posted in natural resources tagged global warming global weirding katharine hayhoe skeptical science leave a comment climate shift denialists 2 religious posted on 2017 07 05 by lasttechage trump and his religious followers deny climate change why on june 1 2017 pres trump pulled the u s out of the international paris agreement on climate change this is a major action that will haunt our grandchildren s grandchildren it also has the support of many leaders religious as well as political in this country our discussion began in climate shift denialists 1 which discussed climate change denialists in business and politics religious denialists are possibly more important climate shift is real d religious denialists fig 3 meaning of third rail a third rail issue in discussions is the discussion of religion here this would be the why and how of religious support in politics see fig 3 figs 1 and 2 are in our postscript most of the religious people to whom i have spoken and who also deny that climate change is an issue describe themselves as evangelical christians they have 2 categories for denial first denial the religious leaders and tv personalities they respect say that it is a misunderstanding at best and a horrid lie at worst second denial they say that even if it starts to happen god will take care of it will protect the righteous the world will survive and the blessed will be left to enjoy its beauty frequently both assertions are made continue reading posted in natural resources politics pres trump tagged billy graham climate change climate change denialists donald trump evangelical christian katharine hayhoe paris agreement on climate change skeptical science tim walberg 3 comments climate shift denialists 1 business and politics posted on 2017 06 27 by lasttechage trump and other denialists reject climate change why on june 1 pres trump pulled the u s out of the international paris agreement on climate change and pushed climate change into one of the major stories of the year this has opened many more questions than can be covered in any single post we consider only that small facet of the climate change argument about why many business and political leaders deny it is happening this is the first of two discussions on why leaders deny that earth s climate is changing at an unnatural rate in climate shift denialists 2 we will discuss why some religious leaders might become denialists climate shift is real a prologue human caused climate change is happening right now and we will start with that it is a feature of chaos shift events that effects once done can never be reversed the sea level is rising now example islands coastal towns bays and bayous are being swallowed by the ocean and scoured with its currents and tides even if the level drops in a century or so these features will never be same again weather is becoming fiercer all who die because of extended day temperatures of 120 to 140 f 50 60 c will be lost forever although real and currently happening it is strongly disputed in the us we start with the fact of its existence definitions weather what happens every day it is like a snapshot across the your street today your image shows part of a bakery a white panel truck and a blue suv tomorrow you see a different part of the bakery a florist shop bicyclists and a pickup climate the long average of the weather it is like adding together a series of snaps of your street scene if you average a large number of pictures the incidental traffic no matter how large will be removed and all the shops become apparent fig 1 climate escalator world average temperature rose 0 18 c 0 324 f every decade since 1970 skeptical science features the world temperature graph by dana nuccitelli fig 1 is from the author s youtube presentation click the image for a readable version world weather is the jagged green line world climate is the straight red line temperature changes are just one of the indicators of our shifting climate others such as desertification and rising sea coasts may have more impact on us as a species check the skeptical science website for the 10 top alt facts used by denialists fig 2 katharine hayhoe environmental scientist dr katharine hayhoe fig 2 of texas tech university is one of the many scientists who talk about the climate shift problem watch as she discusses various climate facts false and true to a group of interested people it is climate that is shifting the weather will just grow more violent as the change continues so q why do americans doubt climate change a their leaders and tv talking heads tell them to q why do people in authority deny what is happening a motives of business execs and politicians are easy religious leaders the second post will be my very personal answer to christians in denial climate shift is real b why are business leaders climate denialists business resistance is totally understandable check the relation between stock prices and executive compensation this an issue is about how people work the people who run large businesses are among th...