Meta tags:

Headings (most frequently used words):

the, new, arthurian, economics, so, good, debt, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, saturday, april, 30, 2011, or, not, that, is, question, comments,

Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (113), and (47), debt (32), that (20), for (18), april (17), policy (16), post (15), not (13), good (13), def (12), but (11), this (11), what (11), growth (11), curve (11), you (10), january (10), money (9), shifts (9), inflation (9), february (9), march (9), june (9), july (9), august (9), september (9), october (9), november (9), december (9), arthurian (8), question (8), may (8), private (8), 2011 (7), was (7), more (7), said (7), about (7), economy (7), phillips (7), noah (7), time (7), economic (7), issues (7), out (6), how (6), say (6), keynesian (6), link (6), over (6), graph (6), like (6), new (6), credit (6), tax (5), shift (5), read (5), late (5), have (5), look (5), tradeoff (5), data (5), economics (5), spending (5), cost (5), louis (4), fred (4), federal (4), taxes (4), think (4), 1990s (4), change (4), see (4), thing (4), problem (4), taylor (4), with (4), red (4), one (4), fed (3), graphs (3), all (3), comments (3), his (3), some (3), from (3), also (3), something (3), saw (3), 1998 (3), pdf (3), because (3), budget (3), happened (3), before (3), everything (3), accumulation (3), structure (3), much (3), does (3), things (3), years (3), ability (3), increase (3), too (3), between (3), better (3), five (3), words (3), structural (3), why (3), friedman (3), right (3), they (3), two (3), than (3), different (3), john (3), timeline (3), productivity (3), krugman (3), gdp (3), crisis (3), page (3), blog (3), same (3), reserve (2), bank (2), 2016 (2), http (2), org (2), can (2), make (2), him (2), newer (2), comment (2), times (2), changes (2), poppy (2), after (2), necessity (2), rethugs (2), matter (2), pledge (2), never (2), few (2), however (2), were (2), deficit (2), through (2), www (2), did (2), call (2), accidental (2), back (2), cheers (2), jzb (2), jazzbumpa (2), okay (2), get (2), your (2), balanced (2), until (2), whatever (2), 1992 (2), didn (2), wrong (2), other (2), technology (2), are (2), these (2), principles (2), refer (2), 1947 (2), dates (2), don (2), our (2), believe (2), there (2), into (2), again (2), significant (2), makes (2), early (2), had (2), analysis (2), thought (2), shifting (2), says (2), left (2), only (2), doesn (2), really (2), milton (2), labels (2), represents (2), 1960s (2), during (2), very (2), recessions (2), particularly (2), bad (2), puts (2), periods (2), performance (2), curves (2), 2010 (2), 2018 (2), know (2), long (2), sumner (2), recession (2), household (2), loops (2), laffer (2), jerry (2), historical (2), banking (2), financial (2), expectations (2), civilization (2), push (2), 2013 (2), dave (2), ross (2), image (2), google (2), translate (2), html (2), blogger (2), economist (2), charts (2), use (2), seeing (2), life (2), three (2), magic (2), here (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, appear, courtesy, research, stlouisfed, fred2, lead, horse, water, drink, stay, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, home, older, well, reagan, increased, net, effect, various, burden, rich, poor, infamous, lips, gaffe, raised, current, crowd, won, great, running, national, office, take, authored, grover, norquist, raise, any, included, closing, loopholes, violated, just, days, ago, whenever, groundwork, laid, territory, under, clinton, declined, steadily, surpluses, ran, 2001, cbo, gov, ftpdocs, 108xx, doc10871, historicaltables, remember, them, keynesians, going, less, touch, couple, weeks, later, jazz, view, keynesianism, yeah, dunno, maxing, fell, consistently, balance, achieved, changed, inkling, 1989, 1990, 1991, permit, trend, develop, probably, code, could, conversation, perhaps, attribute, trick, doing, encourages, add, costs, institutions, politics, nothing, offer, mentioned, 1977, reaganomics, 1978, 2008, likely, been, blithe, tell, based, answering, fundamental, answer, suits, record, offered, plan, need, evaluation, run, has, gloss, blithely, unless, relationship, results, note, following, got, briefly, confirmation, bias, level, reason, root, inability, posted, came, upon, noahpinion, already, noticed, myself, looked, course, liked, provided, woke, next, day, ready, write, knew, should, always, first, plotted, goes, ratio, reasons, explanation, address, people, anticipate, their, behavior, disrupts, find, unsatisfactory, check, longest, lowest, leftmost, shortest, upper, corner, severe, those, healthy, low, sickly, high, others, compare, placement, related, isn, inadequate, then, remembered, else, will, unemployment, decade, series, took, now, thoughts, come, together, own, draws, saturday, copyright, arthur, shipman, zoho, withering, shoots, waste, fraud, abuse, verdoorn, urgency, unsustainable, umic, ulc, tot, tongue, cheek, tint, knob, supply, side, decline, transaction, difference, rule, symmetry, deception, stimulus, star, trek, standard, deviation, stagflation, spreadsheeting, special, report, slack, simulated, evidence, simulacron, serfdom, sequence, scott, reviews, reduction, green, reading, writing, questions, printing, price, controls, predicting, pfi, parameters, oil, non, linear, tools, moving, average, motives, multiplier, mmt, military, medium, account, math, problems, matched, set, fekete, malaise, variable, limits, ego, captain, introduction, iceberg, couldn, sleep, humor, might, pay, hover, craft, hodrick, prescott, hoarding, revisionism, phase, rate, calc, gross, domestic, gresham, law, gold, shortage, gds, gang8, fun, mpc, full, disclosure, free, era, fpi, forget, digit, financialization, final, feedback, fcm, fallacy, composition, failure, embrace, factors, evolution, excuse, erosion, eroc, forces, echoes, dpd, disarray, demand, pull, deflation, outside, limit, issue, reissue, investment, inside, general, equilibrium, activity, bulge, recovery, context, debasement, cycle, chronicles, efficiency, coping, coinage, civ, calculating, labor, share, wealth, bullard, earthquake, best, put, downs, behavioral, finte, greater, artish, adjusting, discoveries, accelerated, repayment, little, argument, 400k, smoothing, revision, 1986, 2000, 1970s, 1966, real, calculation, contact, website, stuff, tufte, normalized, scaled, mental, workout, numerical, ignorance, kardi, teknomo, interesting, jim, organize, supreme, court, jester, prac, vin, faq, nice, bloogger, within, color, codes, sentral, test, help, schools, menu, host, tips, spoiler, theory2life, irrational, unsettling, broad, oak, redonomics, thinking, margin, year, old, freshman, dolor, rants, dredd, mayday, books, jbpeebles, truth, addicts, anon, frozen, arctic, tundra, blended, purple, candid, troublesome, action, nextblog, skeptical, optimist, worthwhile, canadian, father, tim, duy, cybereconomics, crises, businomics, ecometry, william, hummell, flavianopolis, aquinum, razor, crystal, bull, williams, sgs, econompic, secret, mark, wieczorek, perot, historicalstatistics, sources, irs, corp, 2006, top, rates, usgovernmentspending, economagic, stock, flow, funds, bls, jobs, bea, accounts, measuringworth, statistical, abstracts, gavin, kennedy, mason, paul, pages, scribd, links, 2009, 361, fools, man, island, history, repeat, itself, rhymes, setting, imbalance, reaction, prices, panics, conclusion, dirk, maybe, canada, details, wife, away, weekend, unlikely, character, big, predux, worth, oft, repeated, saying, badly, tiptoe, tulips, dog, equity, another, watch, want, explaining, sector, rise, neo, feudal, society, enemy, forest, trees, social, currency, keen, easter, endogenous, expansion, wine, title, equivalents, point, interest, end, york, fascinating, oscar, wilde, collection, andy, harless, moment, points, playtime, 571, 476, 2012, 412, 374, 2014, 283, 2015, 318, 274, 2017, archive, versions, model, showing, accumulating, hurts, mine, brings, preview, window, click, template, button, open, introductory, googledocs, file, stand, alone, php, version, art, vigor, start, unusual, mess, still, overview, download, death, policies, overlap, recommendations, surprising, trends, short, longer, most, important, views, posts, econcrit, challenging, premisses,

Text of the page (random words):
the new arthurian economics so good or not so good that is the question the new arthurian economics challenging the premisses newer posts at econcrit start with the debt problem three views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 playtime so good or not so good that is the question two points same moment same magic the magic of policy andy harless one more for the collection the fascinating oscar wilde and that was the end of the new york times point of interest money equivalents and other things had too much wine to think up a title for this post endogenous credit expansion a keen easter three graphs social currency the forest for the trees the wrong enemy the rise of neo feudal society one more time explaining the growth of private sector debt we see what we want to see inflation watch another good one money is equity a dog s life tiptoe through the tulips saying the same thing badly oft repeated for what it s worth seeing red seeing red predux not like krugman big red character words i m unlikely to use oh look at that why accumulation the wife is away for the weekend details maybe it s different in canada dirk private issues post post private issues 5 conclusion private issues 4 growth private issues 3 prices and panics private issues 2½ imbalance and reaction private issues 2 the setting private issues history doesn t repeat itself but it rhymes what is debt no man is an island april fools march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman saturday april 30 2011 so good or not so good that is the question back early april i came upon john taylor draws a phillips curve at noahpinion i had already noticed for myself that taylor s graph looked much like the phillips curve so i did like noah s post of course i liked my own analysis better but noah also provided a graph that woke me up early the next day ready to write it took until now however for my thoughts to come together from noah s post and then i remembered something else about phillips curves they shift over time policy shifts and structural shifts in the economy will over time change the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment if you look at data over more than a decade you see a series of different curves for different time periods i never saw a graph like this before i knew it should look like this because the curve shifts over time and i always thought this shifting significant but noah s graph is the first time i saw it plotted out in his post noah goes on to say that taylor s ratio too shifts over time but he says no more about reasons for the shifting as an explanation of the phillips shifts we are left with only five words policy shifts and structural shifts isn t that inadequate the question is why does the phillips curve shift noah doesn t really address the question milton friedman if i have it right said people anticipate policy changes and they change their behavior and this disrupts the curve i find that unsatisfactory check out the labels on noah s graph the longest lowest and leftmost curve represents the phillips tradeoff of the 1960s and the late 1990s the shortest curve in the upper right corner represents the tradeoff during two very severe recessions growth was particularly good in the 1960s and again in the late 1990s growth was particularly bad during those recessions the placement of the curve is related to economic performance not structural shifts but performance shifts a healthy economy puts the tradeoff low and left on the graph a sickly economy puts the tradeoff high and to the right compare that to what friedman said so the question really is not why does the phillips curve shift the question is what makes growth so good in some periods and not so good in others posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments the arthurian said the thing that makes growth good or not good is the ability or inability of debt to increase april 30 2011 at 5 00 am jazzbumpa said i think you gloss over policy and structure too blithely unless you believe that there is no relationship between these things and results note that in the 60 s we were following keynesian principles we got into that again briefly in the late 90 s also be on the look out for confirmation bias the debt level and ability to increase is significant but there is no reason to believe it is at the root of everything cheers jzb april 30 2011 at 7 35 am the arthurian said okay i could have a conversation on this perhaps i didn t say it in this post but i attribute everything to policy the trick is to see what it is that policy is doing wrong i say policy encourages the accumulation of debt structure to me is the structure of money how much of it is debt and what does that add to costs other things technology is technology and institutions are politics and i have nothing to offer on these you mentioned before the keynesian principles thing i do refer to 30 years of keynesian policy 1947 1977 and 30 years of reaganomics 1978 2008 but i ve likely been blithe about the dates so don t refer me to a link tell me something that happened in the late 1990s to make it keynesian what we balanced the budget everything i do is based on answering the question what is the fundamental problem in our economy i have an answer that suits me for the record my comment about ability to increase debt is not offered as a plan of what we need to do but as an evaluation of how we run our economy and what has to change april 30 2011 at 8 04 am the arthurian said so okay jazz i read the link post and the link link post and i get your view of keynesianism i think yeah you think it was keynesian in the late 1990s because we balanced the budget dunno about that after maxing out in 1992 the federal budget deficit fell consistently until balance was achieved in 1998 whatever happened whatever changed and i have an inkling but not a post to link to it happened in 1992 or before say 1989 1990 1991 to permit the trend to develop probably a change in the tax code april 30 2011 at 1 42 pm jazzbumpa said well reagan increased taxes 11 times the net effect of his various tax changes was to shift some of the burden from the rich to the poor poppy after his infamous read my lips gaffe also raised taxes out of necessity something the current crowd of rethugs won t do no matter how great the necessity all rethugs running for national office take a pledge authored by grover norquist to never raise any tax and this included closing loopholes poppy violated the pledge i saw him say this on tv just a few days ago whenever and however the groundwork was laid we were in keynesian territory by 1998 under clinton the deficit declined steadily and surpluses ran from 1998 through 2001 http www cbo gov ftpdocs 108xx doc10871 historicaltables pdf remember i did call them accidental keynesians i m going to be more or less out of touch for a couple of weeks back at you later cheers jzb april 30 2011 at 11 55 pm post a comment newer post older post home subscribe to post comments atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of federal reserve bank of st louis http research stlouisfed org fred2 the st louis fed