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n production jazzbumpa quotes wikipedia tfp cannot be measured directly instead it is a residual often called the solow residual which accounts for effects in total output not caused by inputs total factor productivity is a residual we use it to explain the part of growth that we can t explain tfp is like the ether or einstein s cosmological constant tfp is not an explanation it is a fudge factor total factor productivity is not a sound basis upon which to make the kind of judgement that beckworth is making he d be better off looking at slowing income growth or inflation adjusted gdp i took beckworth s jpg saved it as a png and used paint net to erase the background then i overlaid it on the fred graph of total factor productivity graph 3 beckworth s tfp blue overlaid on fred tfp red for the overlay i matched up the early years and let the rest of it blow in the wind you can see the the red fred numbers are obviously lower that beckworth s blue during the 1970s but after about 1982 the red version rises sooner and more quickly than the blue fred s red line even comes pretty near to getting back to beckworth s 1947 1973 trend line which numbers are less iffy i really can t say posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments sunday september 21 2014 frances in the moment from frances coppola s ultra liquidity we already know that post crisis monetary policy can no longer use reserve scarcity to create the illusion of money drought if ultra liquidity is here to stay as seems likely we must either re unify monetary and fiscal policy or resign ourselves to central bank impotence from bis central bank warns against illusion of permanent liquidity loose monetary policies have created an illusion of permanent liquidity the longer the music plays and the louder it gets the more deafening is the silence that follows claudio borio who heads the bis s monetary and economic unit told reporters markets will not be liquid when that liquidity is needed most he warned urging sound prudential policies and extra prudence on the part of market participants themselves posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday september 20 2014 challenge and response in a growing civilization a challenge meets with a successful response which proceeds to generate another and a different challenge which meets with another successful response there is no term to this process of growth unless and until a challenge arises which the civilization in question fails to meet a tragic event which means a cessation of growth arnold j toynbee think of toynbee s growth as economic growth the great depressions of the capitalist era are our correlative rhythm the challenge is rising cost due to the growth of finance we fail to meet the challenge thinking we need only to choke off inflation but our response only makes the problem worse marcus nunes writes on becoming chairman of the fed volker challenged the keynesian orthodoxy which held that the high unemployment high inflation combination of the 1970 s demonstrated that inflation arose from cost push and supply shocks a situation dubbed stagflation volker s challenge placed inflation as the fomc s top priority he also brought to the fore of policy discussions the ideas developed during the previous 12 years since friedman s address to the 1967 aea meetings on the importance of inflation expectations to volker the policy adopted by the fomc rests on a simple premise documented by centuries of experience that the inflation process is ultimately related to excessive growth in money and credit this view an overhaul of fed doctrine implicitly accepts that rising inflation is caused by demand pull or excess aggregate demand or nominal spending i summarized those remarks thus after the change in doctrine policymakers held that inflation is related to the quantity of money or to the growth of the quantity of money and excuses be damned that they could control inflation by controlling the quantity of money with the change in doctrine policymakers denied that there was a problem of rising costs they thought they could stop inflation by limiting the growth of money or you know by fiddling with interest rates they chose to see inflation as a monetary phenomenon rather than a cost phenomenon neoliberalism is corporatization privatization and deregulation according to lorenzo plus the adoption of inflation targeting by central banks as a way of operationalising their responsibility for inflation as a monetary phenomenon emph asis added but the root cause of inflation in our time is not money growth the root cause is rising cost in the 1960s and 70s perhaps policymakers goosed the quantity of money to compensate for rising costs since volcker policymakers have quashed money and income growth and simply ignored the problem of rising costs as a result they have forced down not only inflation but also economic growth yet rising cost remains a problem policymakers have therefore given up on the idea of stable prices and have accepted instead that they should aim for stable inflation rising cost driven by the growth of finance is the challenge that our civilization fails to meet our response is to pretend that the problem lies elsewhere the failure of policymakers to address the problem of rising cost means a cessation of growth and what toynbee has called a breakdown the challenge has not been met but it nonetheless continues to present itself wesley changed my life posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments friday september 19 2014 miscellaneous toynbee excerpts from d c somervell s two volume abridgement of arnold j toynbee s a study of history challenge and response in a growing civilization a challenge meets with a successful response which proceeds to generate another and a different challenge which meets with another successful response there is no term to this process of growth unless and until a challenge arises which the civilization in question fails to meet a tragic event which means a cessation of growth and what we have called a breakdown here the correlative rhythm begins the challenge has not been met but it nonetheless continues to present itself a second convulsive effort is made to meet it and if this succeeds growth will of course be resumed charm and force the radiation of any civilization may be analysed into three elements economic political and cultural and so long as a society is in a state of growth all three elements seem to be radiated with equal power or to speak in human rather than physical terms to exercise an equal charm but as soon as the civilization has ceased to grow the charm of its culture evaporates its powers of economic and political radiation may and indeed probably will continue to grow faster than ever for a successful cultivation of the pseudo religions of mammon and mars and moloch is eminently characteristic of broken down civilizations but since the cultural element is the essence of a civilization and the economic and political elements are relatively trivial manifestations of the life that it has in it it follows that the most spectacular triumphs of economic and political radiation are imperfect and precarious in the contest that now ensues the broken down civilization radiates force instead of attracting mimesis the genesis of civilization the differentiation takes place within the body of the antecedent civilization when that civilization begins to lose the creative power through which in its period of growth it had at one time inspired a voluntary allegiance in the hearts of the people below its surface or beyond its borders when this happens the ailing civilization pays the penalty for its failing vitality by being disintegrated into a dominant minority which rules with increasing oppressiveness but no longer leads and a proletariat internal and external which responds to this challenge by becoming conscious that it has a soul of its own and by making up its mind to save its soul alive the dominant minority s will to repress evokes in the proletariat a will to secede and a conflict between these two wills continues while the declining civilization verges toward its fall until when it is in articulo mortis the proletariat at length breaks free from what was once its spiritual home but has now become a prison house and finally a city of destruction the secession of the proletariat is the dynamic act in response to the challenge through which the change from yin to yang is brought about and in this dynamic separation the affiliated civilization is born the nature of the breakdown the nature of the breakdown can be summed up in three points a failure of creative power in the creative minority which henceforth becomes a merely dominant minority an answering withdrawal of allegiance and mimesis on the part of the majority a consequent loss of social unity in the society as a whole like a shark when a frontier between a more highly and a less highly civilized society ceases to advance the balance does not settle down to a stable equilibrium but inclines with the passage of time in the more backward society s favour toynbee s observations about civilization in decline seem to describe our world posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments thursday september 18 2014 this is my short and short attention span review of noah smith s full 5 part review of big ideas in macroeconomics by karthik athreya dumb luck maybe at the top of noah s sidebar a link to his review of the book big ideas in macroeconomics from its title the book sounds like it might be a useful summary of the big ideas it isn t or at least i couldn t tell if it is from as much as i read of noah s post but he did irk me noah did so here we are noah writes deep within my cultural memory is buried a legend the legend of the scholastics the legend goes like this at the dawn of the modern age when european rationalists and scientists began to unleash an explosion of creativity and free thought there were a tribe of very smart very learned people called the scholastics who devoted all their mental powers to defending the old medieval understanding of the universe they produced exhaustive treatises defending old dogmas and honed their logical thinking to a fine edge but in the end they could not stand in the way of progress and were swept away deep within my cultural memory lies the boyish fantasy of confronting and defeating a scholastic in an intellectual confrontation in the name of a new scientific revolution the 14 year old in me still wants to be a fictionalized hollywood ized version of descartes galileo or francis bacon fighting for rationality enlightenment etc etc yeah i m no history buff but i think noah has the timeline jumbled the scholastics were in the 1200s and 1300s occam of occam s razor and thomas aquinas and them the dawn of the modern age came a little later with descartes in the 1500s and after oh crap noah s wikipedia link dates scholasticism at about 1100 to 1700 oh yeah but under early scholasticism they say charlemagne attracted scholars and by decree in ad 787 he established schools in every abbey in his empire wow he set a standard that lasted more than a thousand years only now are we trying to think it might be better to privatize schools we in our dark age thinking oh well under high scholasticism they say the 13th and early 14th centuries are generally seen as the high period of scholasticism yeah see the 1200s and 1300s then under late scholasticism there is nothing but a link to some other article i was right noah has things jumbled or maybe he s just focused on the dregs of scholasticism the unimportant part sheesh descartes it turns out was a little later than i thought the first half of the 1600s but what s interesting i think is that when descartes decided to throw away everything he knew and start from scratch the stuff he was throwing away was mostly scholasticism what he was throwing away was the stuff wikipedia describes as a method of critical thought and a program of employing that method in articulating and defending dogma interesting fellow descartes so noah but anyway this is the bias i have to overcome when thinking about big ideas in macroeconomics it definitely has the feel of a scholastic apologia the book is clearly intended as a response to the outside criticisms of academic macroeconomics that have proliferated since the 2008 crisis and recession some of the critics are bloggers like paul krugman or writers like john quiggin who criticize macro in the public sphere others are economists like dan hamermesh who had this to say in 2011 the economics profession is not in disrepute macroeconomics is in disrepute the micro stuff that people like myself and most of us do has contributed tremendously and continues to contribute our thoughts have had enormous influence it just happens that macroeconomics firstly has been done terribly and secondly in terms of academic macroeconomics these guys are absolutely useless most of them ask your brother in law i m sure he thinks as do 90 of us that most of what the macro guys do in academia is just worthless rubbish worthless useless uninteresting rubbish catering to a very few people in their own little cliques ouch a good number of people within the macro field agree of course but not all athreya seems to believe that most of macro s critics just don t know enough about the field but does this mean outside criticisms of macro should be discarded just because they come from outside athreya does acknowledge two pages later that this process can lead to capture of critics if the only legitimate critics of something are people who do it for a living then the set of potential legitimate critics is pre selected for people who will not want to be critics athreya fails to mention a second more cynical kind of capture which is that internal critics of a field are automatically pissing where they sleep this matters for society because they re the ones who pay macroeconomists salaries granted it s not a large burden if there are 3000 macroeconomics profs and govt researchers in america and they earn an average of 150 000 each then that s less than half a billion dollars total each year the cost of two or three f 35s for a field that has a shot at preventing trillions of dollars in lost output it s all gossip sure in the end it all comes down to money of course but noah s discussion is not about the economy it s about personalities and disagreements and zingers it s all gossip it s the money that s important the people who have money know it the people who don t have money know it so why is noah writing about economics why isn t he writing about the economy noah you need to throw away everything you know and start from scratch don t worry it ll be no great loss you ll be giving up nothing except a method of critical thought and a program of employing that method in articulating and defending dogma throw it away noah it s what you wanted s...