Meta tags:

Headings (most frequently used words):

august, 2016, debt, service, the, and, productivity, household, wednesday, monday, sunday, thursday, new, arthurian, economics, saturday, tuesday, friday, out, between, labor, growth, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, 31, 29, 28, 27, 25, 24, 23, 22, 21, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, closing, month, with, an, update, borrowing, hit, hard, limit, four, years, before, bottom, fell, projection, thru, 2020, bezemer, hudson, quotable, relevant, insanity, bis, on, connection, projections, potential, low, plus, growing, equals, illicit, use, of, hodrick, prescott, relation, rgdp, economic, reverse, engineering, ratio, what, said, eleven, months, back, bill, mcbride, don, expect, downturn, for, employment, any, time, soon, secret,

Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (648), and (226), debt (220), #service (121), that (116), graph (82), for (79), line (70), but (58), this (57), data (55), #productivity (55), you (54), household (52), growth (51), red (50), blue (44), money (41), from (40), years (40), will (37), have (37), more (34), what (33), economy (33), 2016 (32), then (32), was (32), trend (32), with (31), not (30), increase (29), after (29), august (28), two (27), 1990s (27), about (27), can (26), are (26), time (24), don (24), shows (24), see (23), again (23), when (23), arthurian (22), year (22), than (22), now (21), inflation (21), out (20), just (20), down (20), low (20), all (19), comments (19), good (19), crisis (19), since (19), recession (19), how (19), much (19), posted (18), base (18), get (18), vigor (18), look (18), flat (17), know (17), may (17), income (17), there (16), curve (16), new (16), here (16), has (16), dollars (16), like (15), going (15), show (15), percent (15), borrowing (15), been (15), 2013 (15), thru (15), our (15), think (14), lines (14), 2015 (14), future (14), same (14), relative (14), constant (14), excel (14), 1980 (14), they (13), economic (13), times (13), start (13), back (13), use (13), before (13), credit (13), other (13), recent (13), monthly (13), into (12), big (12), want (12), way (12), net (12), image (12), hodrick (12), prescott (12), bottom (12), gdp (12), annual (12), say (12), interest (12), billions (12), def (12), looking (11), because (11), massive (11), 2007 (11), september (11), right (11), also (11), each (11), values (11), financial (11), rise (11), value (11), green (11), bowl (11), paid (11), billion (11), fred (10), graphs (10), make (10), while (10), maybe (10), little (10), private (10), most (10), expect (10), had (10), few (10), those (10), high (10), cost (10), rgdp (10), 100 (10), one (10), only (10), where (10), recovery (10), rates (10), policy (10), payments (10), january (10), conditions (9), took (9), seems (9), too (9), does (9), says (9), take (9), next (9), file (9), first (9), very (9), different (9), used (9), quarterly (9), demand (9), spending (9), uptrend (9), february (9), march (9), april (9), june (9), july (9), october (9), november (9), december (9), did (8), which (8), happen (8), match (8), would (8), change (8), trends (8), end (8), off (8), path (8), makes (8), even (8), better (8), using (8), early (8), during (8), its (8), still (8), labor (8), 2020 (8), people (7), increased (7), happened (7), problem (7), ratio (7), post (7), 2014 (7), soon (7), last (7), put (7), push (7), means (7), let (7), rising (7), turns (7), fall (7), between (7), smoothing (7), went (7), close (7), decline (7), dots (7), three (7), bis (7), bank (6), created (6), work (6), need (6), prices (6), employment (6), peak (6), almost (6), thing (6), upward (6), longer (6), disposable (6), personal (6), bad (6), filter (6), business (6), starts (6), second (6), paying (6), pull (6), were (6), federal (5), said (5), run (5), turn (5), around (5), long (5), 2000 (5), their (5), saying (5), 2008 (5), some (5), bill (5), downturn (5), previous (5), ago (5), stuff (5), left (5), nobody (5), got (5), 1991 (5), side (5), well (5), them (5), calculation (5), smooth (5), prediction (5), should (5), things (5), falling (5), downward (5), reduced (5), 2010 (5), 1994 (5), president (5), always (5), 1600 (5), four (5), really (5), series (5), 1995 (5), quickly (5), turned (5), ready (5), period (5), goes (5), context (5), eight (5), scaled (5), downtrend (5), read (5), output (5), term (5), economics (5), louis (4), fed (4), reserve (4), stay (4), posts (4), home (4), over (4), something (4), runs (4), another (4), example (4), started (4), yes (4), tell (4), must (4), faster (4), hard (4), secret (4), mcbride (4), terms (4), 2001 (4), old (4), though (4), screen (4), black (4), actual (4), pretty (4), months (4), affects (4), saving (4), number (4), thought (4), until (4), interesting (4), numbers (4), 2009 (4), less (4), 2012 (4), sunday (4), production (4), consumers (4), slowly (4), showing (4), page (4), allow (4), bottoms (4), rises (4), 2006 (4), real (4), frequencies (4), half (4), uses (4), mid (4), goldilocks (4), 1993 (4), 2011 (4), related (4), disappointing (4), john (4), linear (4), quiet (4), understand (4), dip (4), everybody (4), expectations (4), buoyant (4), obama (4), 200 (4), neck (4), scale (3), eye (3), flatten (3), reading (3), telling (3), could (3), enough (3), today (3), create (3), problems (3), important (3), any (3), best (3), together (3), rate (3), yesterday (3), general (3), thursday (3), compared (3), recessions (3), above (3), ended (3), reached (3), friday (3), introductory (3), original (3), didn (3), gif (3), size (3), guarantee (3), anything (3), course (3), might (3), come (3), eleven (3), away (3), toward (3), past (3), consumer (3), result (3), jiggy (3), lag (3), 2018 (3), instead (3), short (3), perfect (3), drop (3), reverse (3), non (3), sector (3), consumption (3), hinders (3), probably (3), latter (3), monday (3), code (3), rapid (3), encourages (3), leads (3), increasing (3), 1997 (3), relation (3), pdf (3), ravn (3), uhlig (3), results (3), sometimes (3), both (3), find (3), sense (3), showed (3), pattern (3), extremely (3), cycle (3), frequency (3), wednesday (3), shown (3), spike (3), set (3), lower (3), pick (3), thinking (3), endless (3), point (3), guess (3), bright (3), shape (3), fell (3), feel (3), shaped (3), stop (3), made (3), mean (3), blogger (3), per (3), projections (3), words (3), through (3), investment (3), consider (3), labour (3), hand (3), prevent (3), takes (3), supply (3), sales (3), stock (3), limits (3), targets (3), labels (3), bezemer (3), hudson (3), banking (3), order (3), every (3), projection (3), small (3), month (3), sets (3), compare (3), dollar (3), pay (3), staying (3), ahead (3), limit (3), timeline (3), blog (3), org (2), newer (2), log (2), 1920s (2), 1950s (2), require (2), 1930s (2), head (2), nice (2), flattening (2), world (2), war (2), happening (2), worked (2), predict (2), else (2), wrong (2), offer (2), hint (2), adequate (2), eventually (2), solution (2), hey (2), proportion (2), your (2), price (2), sounds (2), job (2), losses (2), percentage (2), note (2), beginning (2), calculated (2), sentence (2), expects (2), stretch (2), axis (2), lets (2), capture (2), link (2), anyway (2), shot (2), paint (2), save (2), open (2), switch (2), cropped (2), place (2), dotted (2), overlay (2), follow (2), doesn (2), striking (2), similarity (2), similar (2), saturday (2), figured (2), late (2), minus (2), sign (2), signs (2), matching (2), 1985 (2), 1990 (2), higher (2), wonder (2), adding (2), add (2), weight (2), dpi (2), looked (2), added (2), looks (2), everything (2), bit (2), lagged (2), quarters (2), savings (2), engineering (2), imposed (2), households (2), remarks (2), indication (2), usual (2), mark (2), vba (2), peaks (2), slows (2), 1986 (2), tuesday (2), creates (2), give (2), changing (2), changes (2), 14400 (2), shouldn (2), default (2), larger (2), exactly (2), reason (2), trending (2), wanted (2), normally (2), variation (2), unresponsive (2), being (2), responsive (2), jan (2), recommendations (2), 1992 (2), notes (2), raises (2), observations (2), adjusting (2), standard (2), illicit (2), typically (2), least (2), oval (2), plus (2), growing (2), equals (2), circled (2), quite (2), cassidy (2), improving (2), readings (2), never (2), difference (2), climb (2), lasted (2), wants (2), becomes (2), vigorous (2), sharply (2), improve (2), suggest (2), remarkable (2), drifting (2), quarter (2), drift (2), continuing (2), far (2), determined (2), estimate (2), likely (2), factor (2), tall (2), wide (2), perhaps (2), reasonable (2), grabbed (2), duration (2), align (2), part (2), won (2), tired (2), yet (2), behind (2), current (2), couple (2), six (2), potential (2), couldn (2), once (2), heard (2), rule (2), excessive (2), experience (2), 2004 (2), grew (2), permanent (2), booms (2), misallocations (2), subsequent (2), thus (2), connection (2), mention (2), circulation (2), gets (2), extra (2), works (2), continues (2), wealthier (2), printing (2), raising (2), firms (2), activity (2), increases (2), issue (2), jobs (2), insanity (2), finte (2), report (2), crises (2), quotable (2), relevant (2), highest (2), sixth (2), crazy (2), continue (2), fourth (2), forecast (2), large (2), evidence (2), brings (2), owed (2), units (2), morning (2), coffee (2), repayment (2), fact (2), owe (2), awful (2), lot (2), principal (2), actually (2), borrowed (2), free (2), hit (2), release (2), closing (2), taxes (2), sumner (2), predicting (2), loops (2), laffer (2), krugman (2), jerry (2), historical (2), five (2), civilization (2), dave (2), ross (2), google (2), translate (2), html (2), economist (2), charts (2), tax (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, appear, courtesy, http, research, stlouisfed, fred2, lead, horse, water, him, drink, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, older, 1918, marked, lots, flats, simplified, arise, 40s, 1960, somebody, gradually, gradual, achieve, sudden, arose, required, record, everyone, otherwise, fine, loudly, wasn, bringing, lack, word, leave, missing, picture, grows, solves, reducing, appears, reliably, quantity, inflated, knowing, seek, gives, grow, keeps, stable, cover, bases, stability, ambsl, wwii, exceeding, pre, although, continued, unlike, forecasting, risk, finally, found, gonna, chop, revise, eliminate, references, present, funny, cut, ending, either, suppose, display, reverts, dashed, bars, 2030, load, magic, wand, tolerance, erase, white, background, crop, border, files, layer, twice, copy, paste, enlarged, tomorrow, downtrends, uptrends, races, stomach, whatever, political, party, power, claim, deeper, wondering, given, impression, tend, move, opposite, directions, 1982, front, formula, upside, remembered, seeing, formulas, assigning, guessed, weights, somewhat, closer, pleased, myself, picturing, except, happens, peek, getting, bring, lagging, calculate, 1952, love, story, tweaked, area, crossed, slowed, engineer, yeah, generalizations, extent, moves, undermines, confine, expenditure, former, curves, easier, print, contains, level, allows, keep, 1984, morten, harald, paper, 2002, fellows, harvard, college, massachusetts, institute, technology, topic, tweaking, function, named, range, source, amount, trick, picked, examples, why, abandoned, favor, smoothed, information, kruger, statue, commonly, article, introduced, 400, own, favorite, rather, authors, produce, ask, detail, focused, subtle, differences, wiggle, wiggly, linked, thoughts, essentially, informative, clearly, chose, purpose, till, prior, seven, follows, closely, helps, spot, evidently, macroeconomic, advisers, parameter, produces, reconsider, facts, reported, earlier, studies, cast, doubt, finding, backus, kehoe, seinfeld, eviews, user, forum, kurt, annen, applications, often, available, whereas, cases, published, question, adjust, main, properties, conserved, across, alternative, sampling, hereafter, become, method, removing, movements, literature, combines, mostly, spikes, aside, highlights, plenty, room, bottomed, obviously, lows, writes, picks, leaves, nearly, circles, dull, rapidly, sharp, bounce, running, fairly, drifted, curse, luck, ends, began, improved, mirrored, kind, idea, fast, suggests, bar, 2025, wider, severe, forward, provides, backward, exact, imagines, meanwhile, dbr, box, overlaid, moved, sooner, based, conjecture, bet, stretched, fitted, nicely, nothing, correct, handle, comes, 90s, repeated, stats, tells, washed, depression, believes, charm, wit, knew, unrealistic, realistic, possible, hungry, nonfarm, hour, persons, seasonally, adjusted, ophnfb_pc1, capturing, near, comparison, slump, yorker, messed, anticipate, brown, expectation, 1998, copied, great, person, elect, easily, elected, happy, disaster, ain, secular, stagnation, surprised, improvement, expansions, boost, gain, significance, reallocations, negative, contribution, taking, estimates, face, grown, drag, eliminated, significant, resource, particular, diverted, booming, sectors, relatively, impact, these, became, boom, bust, fallout, exacerbated, advanced, economies, token, bbc, news, needed, raise, undermine, plan, already, destroys, causes, generally, car, bigger, expansion, counted, puts, circulates, purchase, bid, effect, servicing, describes, quantitative, easing, stimulated, businesses, appropriate, response, responses, address, fight, lowering, spurs, putting, hands, making, stimulating, respond, ordering, raw, materials, spread, capital, goods, market, equity, expand, begin, especially, reaches, capacity, anna, schwartz, remains, hitting, according, central, vice, chairman, stanley, fischer, speech, colorado, policymaker, upbeat, prospects, remarkably, resilient, fuel, debate, meeting, dirk, michael, mathias, drehman, mikael, juselius, ratios, accurate, warning, signal, impending, systemic, strongly, finance, total, disturbance, points, basis, squared, kinds, polynomials, extended, many, projecting, tdsp, nine, polynomial, predicts, continuation, measure, mdsp, mortgages, recently, existing, mortgage, backed, date, hold, smaller, helped, george, bush, lose, presidency, clinton, relief, brought, rest, starting, stick, listless, consecutive, impressive, surged, measures, whole, givens, sizes, useful, learn, slowing, worth, screwy, project, dogs, asleep, sip, working, apples, oranges, reminds, okay, divide, cancels, dropped, painful, lump, talk, under, 300, certainly, imagine, parallel, thirds, decade, jumps, suddenly, falls, creating, try, troubling, round, 1300, 1350, definitely, equal, gained, convert, rose, ceiling, 2003, 2005, lenders, lend, borrowers, borrow, afford, attempt, updated, hours, alfred, changed, slightly, update, copyright, arthur, shipman, zoho, withering, shoots, waste, fraud, abuse, verdoorn, urgency, unsustainable, umic, ulc, tot, tongue, cheek, tint, knob, shift, transaction, taylor, symmetry, deception, stimulus, star, trek, deviation, stagflation, spreadsheeting, special, slack, simulated, simulacron, serfdom, sequence, scott, reviews, reduction, writing, questions, controls, pfi, parameters, oil, tools, moving, average, motives, multiplier, mmt, milton, friedman, military, medium, account, math, matched, fekete, malaise, variable, ego, captain, introduction, iceberg, sleep, humor, hover, craft, hoarding, revisionism, phase, calc, gross, domestic, gresham, law, gold, shortage, gds, gang8, fun, mpc, full, disclosure, era, fpi, forget, digit, financialization, final, feedback, fcm, fallacy, composition, failure, embrace, factors, evolution, excuse, erosion, eroc, forces, echoes, dpd, disarray, deflation, outside, reissue, inside, equilibrium, bulge, debasement, chronicles, efficiency, coping, coinage, civ, calculating, share, wealth, bullard, earthquake, downs, behavioral, greater, artish, accidental, discoveries, accelerated, call, argument, 400k, revision, 1970s, 1966, contact, website, tufte, analysis, normalized, mental, workout, numerical, ignorance, kardi, teknomo, jim, organize, supreme, court, jester, prac, vin, faq, bloogger, within, color, codes, sentral, test, help, www, schools, menu, host, tips, spoiler, theory2life, irrational, unsettling, broad, oak, redonomics, margin, freshman, dolor, rants, dredd, mayday, books, jbpeebles, truth, addicts, anon, frozen, arctic, tundra, blended, purple, candid, troublesome, action, nextblog, skeptical, optimist, worthwhile, canadian, father, tim, duy, cybereconomics, businomics, ecometry, william, hummell, flavianopolis, aquinum, razor, crystal, bull, williams, sgs, econompic, wieczorek, perot, historicalstatistics, sources, irs, corp, dates, top, usgovernmentspending, economagic, 1947, flow, funds, bls, bea, accounts, measuringworth, statistical, abstracts, gavin, kennedy, mason, paul, pages, scribd, links, 361, 571, 476, 412, 374, 283, anyone, predictor, acceleration, day, fits, endings, public, lambert, sho, emplo, producti, produ, 318, 274, 2017, archive, versions, model, accumulating, hurts, mine, preview, window, click, template, button, googledocs, stand, alone, php, version, accumulation, art, unusual, mess, overview, download, matter, life, death, policies, overlap, surprising, views, econcrit, challenging, premisses,

Text of the page (random words):
analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman wednesday august 31 2016 closing out household debt service month with an update fred says the debt service data sets were updated 20 hours ago data for q1 2016 has been added from alfred this graph shows the new release red with the previous release blue behind it not much has been changed and the new data value is down slightly from the previous number posted by the arthurian at 4 03 am 1 comments monday august 29 2016 household borrowing hit a hard limit four years before the bottom fell out take household debt and look at the change from year ago values that s household borrowing in billions of dollars that s the blue line take household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income and convert it to household debt service payments in billions of dollars that s the red line look at what happened after the 2001 recession graph 1 household borrowing in billions of dollars blue and household debt service payments in billions of dollars red household borrowing blue rose sharply until it reached the ceiling set by debt service payments then it fell back this happened in 2003 it happened again in 2004 and again in 2005 and again in 2006 it is as if lenders would lend no more than they could get paid back in a year or borrowers would borrow no more than they could afford to pay in a year in 2007 after the fourth attempt household borrowing went into free fall you know what happened after that posted by the arthurian at 8 36 am 1 comments labels limits sunday august 28 2016 household debt and debt service after spending almost this whole month on debt service i still don t know enough about the relation between debt service and debt owed here are the givens graph 1 household debt blue and household debt service payments red a small decline in debt since the crisis a big decline in debt service but the blue line uses the left scale and the red uses the right so you can t look at the two lines and see relative sizes or anything useful like that about all we can learn from this graph is that the debt service data doesn t start until 1980 here are the same two data sets the one relative to the other graph 2 household debt relative to household debt service payments well debt is high relative to debt service high and rising i don t like that too much the only good thing i can say is that the increase seems to be slowing for what that s worth but this graph shows billions of dollars of debt relative to debt service as a percent of income the units are billions of dollars relative to percent the units are screwy i don t really know what the graph is telling me don t put too much stock in this one when i started on this little project this morning i didn t have my coffee yet it was four in the morning and even the dogs were still asleep i took a sip of coffee and looked at what i was working with debt in billions on the one hand and debt repayment as a percent of income on the other apples and oranges i took the debt series household debt and made it percent of income like the debt service series graph 3 household debt as a percent of disposable personal income it s striking that big decline since the crisis reminds me of the big decline in debt service i wonder how the two compare household debt relative to income and household debt service relative to income it s okay to compare em now because both data sets are relative to income in fact when i divide debt to income by debt service to income income cancels income and i m left with debt relative to debt service billions relative to billions it shows how much debt we owe for each dollar of debt service paid graph 4 dollars of household debt for every dollar of household debt service paid so about six dollars of debt in 1985 for every debt service dollar paid about eight dollars in the mid 1990s about 10 dollars before the crisis and almost eleven after but it has dropped a bit since 2013 still very high though and with interest rates on the low side this graph says households owe an awful lot of debt an awful lot of debt compared to what we re paying back now it gets interesting instead of looking at household debt as one big painful lump let s look at how much it changes from year to year and lets compare that to how much we pay as debt service in dollars each year billions of dollars graph 5 change in household debt in billions of dollars blue and household debt service payments in billions of dollars red let me talk thru how to read this graph take 1980 as an example just when the red line starts in 1980 we paid just about 200 billion dollars in debt service interest and principal on the debt we owed that year i don t know how much was interest and how much was principal let s say half and half so we paid 100 billion interest that year and we paid off 100 billion of debt that s what the red line says that same year 1980 the blue line shows that household debt increased by just under 200 billion dollars see it on the graph the blue line just where the red line starts so in 1980 we paid off 100 billion of debt and our debt increased by about 200 billion what does this mean it means we actually borrowed about 300 billion in 1980 but since we paid off 100 billion the net increase is 200 billion and the graph shows the net increase it makes sense to show the net increase certainly but it s also important to know that we actually borrowed more than that second take the 1990s as an example the blue line is jiggy in the 1990s but if you imagine it smooth it is pretty much parallel to the red line during the period so the net increase in household debt blue increased during the period but so did debt service red it looks like we were staying ahead of our debt in those years but we were not staying ahead around the time of the 1991 recession the net increase in debt was about half as much as debt service but by the time of the 2001 recession the net increase in debt was about two thirds as much as debt service the net increase in household debt gained on debt service during the decade next look at the years just before the crisis where the blue line jumps up and runs neck and neck with the red and then suddenly falls creating the crisis during those neck and neck years the net increase in household debt was equal to our debt service payments i m not going to try to put into words how troubling this seems to me i m just going to say that this graph shows the problem that created the crisis look at 2006 there where the blue line rises above the red then turns and starts to fall in round numbers we paid about 1300 billion in debt service and the net increase in household debt was about 1350 billion the net increase in debt was more than we paid in debt service we were definitely not staying ahead that year and the next thing you know there was a crisis posted by the arthurian at 10 33 am 3 comments saturday august 27 2016 debt service projection thru 2020 one more time i grabbed all three debt service series from fred the three that i know about anyway looking only at the years since the crisis since 2008 on the graph blue is the total of red and green graph 1 measures of debt service where will debt service go next there s a little v just at the end of 2012 in all three lines on graph 1 after the v from q1 2013 to q4 2015 the lines show little disturbance to the trend i took those years after the v 12 data points on each line and used them as a basis for trend lines in excel i went looking for the highest r squared values for different kinds of trend lines and the sixth order polynomials were highest every time so i went with that but when i extended the trends out into the future the numbers got crazy i guess the sixth order line had too many turns in it and the data after the last turn determined the path of the trend line projecting tdsp for nine quarters the trend line went to more than 100 of disposable income that s crazy things are bad but not that bad look how flat the blue line is on graph 1 after the v there s no way this line will climb to 100 percent in two years so i did it again using the second order polynomial trend which i ve used before this time each trend line predicts a smooth continuation of actual recent data graph 2 debt service 2013 thru 2015 with trends thru 2020 there is no guarantee that recent trends will continue of course but if recent trends do continue the actual data will look like what this graph shows by this measure mdsp debt service payments on mortgages bottoms out in fourth quarter 2016 so if you ve recently heard that new home sales surged 12 4 percent and existing home sales had four consecutive months of impressive increases well i guess mortgage debt service payments should start going up soon graph 2 seems to offer a reasonable forecast but it is hard to see much on graph 2 because it only starts in 2013 so i backed up the start date to 1980 now we can see the debt service forecast in the context of actual experience graph 3 debt service 1980 thru 2015 with trends thru 2020 consider just the blue debt service line and its future projection we see a large bowl shape that runs from about 2008 to 2020 let me put this in terms you ll understand most of the downtrend of that large bowl was president obama s first term the bottom of the bowl was most of obama s second term the black uptrend part of the bowl is the first term of our next president what does this mean hold that thought again consider the blue line there is a smaller bowl shape from 1991 to 1995 in the blue line in 1991 and 1992 we have the downtrend of the small bowl in 1993 and early 1994 we have the bottom in latter 1994 and 1995 we have the uptrend of the small bowl the 1991 92 downtrend is related to the recession that helped george h w bush lose the presidency to bill clinton the bottom of the bowl was a period of debt relief the 1994 95 uptrend is evidence of the increased credit use that brought vigor to the u s economy for the rest of the 1990s there is no guarantee of course that the uptrend in debt service which is starting now will stick to a trend that brings vigor to the economy the way the 1994 95 uptrend did but hey our bowl had its downtrend in obama s first term our bowl had its bottom in the endless listless economy of obama s second term and now our bowl has the start of its uptrend i can see the uptrend excel can see the uptrend and i think you can see it too oh and the uptrend means vigor that s what it means the excel file posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday august 25 2016 bezemer and hudson quotable relevant from finance is not the economy by dirk bezemer and michael hudson mathias drehman and mikael juselius 2015 report that debt service ratios are an accurate early warning signal of impending systemic banking crises and strongly related to the size of the subsequent output losses posted by the arthurian at 11 08 am 1 comments labels b h finte wednesday august 24 2016 insanity bbc news federal reserve close to meeting targets for us economy the federal reserve is close to hitting its targets for us employment and 2 inflation according to the central bank s vice chairman stanley fischer in a speech in colorado the fed s number two policymaker was upbeat about the economy s recovery and prospects we are close to our targets he said on sunday adding that jobs growth had been remarkably resilient he did not mention interest rates but the remarks are likely to fuel debate about when they may rise he did not mention interest rates but i will they needed interest rates low to get economic growth so they can raise interest rates and undermine the growth this is their plan for the economy we have to stop thinking always in terms of interest rates we have to find a better way to prevent inflation on second thought no we don t have to find a better way we already have a better way to prevent inflation paying down debt destroys money paying down debt takes money out of circulation paying down debt is a way to prevent inflation paying down debt takes money that is in the economy and takes it out of the economy it s money that s in the economy that causes prices to go up new borrowing is generally for growth for a new car or a bigger home or for business expansion stuff that gets counted in gdp growth but new borrowing also puts money into the economy and after that first use the money s in the e...