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36527, 225, 36344, does, impede, 4795, looking, 4780, wandered, 781, nice, santa, clause, 2242, 2230, 2255, 2250, 155844, 15825, 400, 15697, 15763, 35954, 36077, 36187, 36265, 36200, approaching, 4677, maintain, phase, ahead, immediate, 4750, 4784, 261, 871, 217, 302, 351, 791, bleeding, stop, slowed, substantially, hopeful, brings, minimum, spiked, 4617, breach, 206, 080, 236, 170, 696, futures, est, carry, refuted, closer, significantly, rare, 522, 407, 392, 700, strangely, disconnected, general, consistent, idea, experiencing, ongoing, thrust, 2288, dead, 15852, 15538, 15607, 15512, 320, 132, 36636, 36935, 350, 36740, 155, 36890, 255, 215, obviously, moment, hung, 4805, 4819, 268, 622, 799, 214, considered, ambiguous, 2284, 2260, naqsdaq, 15733, 15785, stepped, 15820, 15832, remans, ponits, 36322, 36246, 36495, 4758, 4786, 272, 832, 187, 585, 796, weekly, contours, magnitudes, unity, guess, backwards, 2158, 2156, 2126, steadily, 14708, 14888, 14689, 14898, 35935, 35996, 35641, 472, added, tracing, diagonal, correct, 4636, 4615, 4665, 893, 911, 662, 2177, 2197, highest, peaks, roller, coaster, occurred, sits, 15245, 15260, 14782, unusually, 36312, 36514, 224, 36044, 4744, 5650, 159, 806, 381, 113, 659, extents, outlier, represents, 2195, 2210, 2169, 15263, 15319, 15117, 36336, 36453, 36168, 4729, 4749, 4707, 4720, concluded, 188, 290, 726, hang, hats, thrilling, motions, volatility, any, 2171, 2155, 2193, 1419, 14838, 105, 36059, 35769, 299, 36271, 2669, 4638, 153, 252, 713, paths, recoveries, thing, wait, 2133, 14752, 184, 14530, encouraging, ticks, surges, 36175, 35640, 592, 4582, 171, 942, 068, 670, opinion, proven, otherwise, position, justify, negate, peeked, hold, proving, formidable, 4023, downside, possibility, expect, certainly, zig, zag, 4200, 4176, falls, coincidence, climbs, confidence, 4430, 4650, 4119, 382, picture, clarify, deeper, completing, possibilities, connected, curve, contribute, 4129, retracements, resulting, 3994, respectively, terminated, 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unsustainable, underestimate, irrationality, peaked, owned, wouldn, hurry, sell, watching, carefully, signs, inevitable, collapse, distressingly, advancing, consider, lock, hefty, profit, drops, keeps, heading, dump, advance, emphasizes, unsustainability, wrote, nose, buying, opportunity, agile, trader, stomach, marginal, 496, wobbled, nowhere, 490, actually, doldrums, pays, dividend, revisited, dot, indicates, erratically, leading, course, nothing, certain, dime, plunge, admittedly, simple, minded, sequence, coupled, putting, help, identify, slipping, leveling, maintained, slopes, throughout, tepid, alive, slide, steep, ranges, sounds, fundamental, basis, determined, emotions, fundamentals, movements, reveal, emotional, stream, confirms, recommendation, isaac, groot, offers, give, humanoid, robot, blackwell, ultra, chip, drive, demand, mega, cap, firms, underperformance, anticipating, developments, expansion, robotics, diversify, reducing, semiconductor, cyclicality, danil, sereda, 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a new revenue stream expected that is expected soon confirms the buy recommendation this all sounds good on a fundamental basis but i believe that stock prices are determined by market emotions not fundamentals and that price movements reveal the current emotional climate let s have a look graph 1 shows closing prices since the beginning of 2024 graph 1 the large purple dot indicates the split date and previous values are back calculated the data is from yahoo finance you can see the prices have been erratically falling since november periods like this are not unusual in nvda s history typically leading to new highs graph 2 shows the slide from september to november 2023 prior to the steep rise in the first half of 2024 using exponential moving averages emas based on 5 to 233 day ranges graph 2 note that the emas at 89 day dark red and longer maintained positive slopes throughout this period the shorter period lines show that momentum was tepid but the longer period lines show that it was still alive now let s look at the current emas graph 3 shows all emas through 144 day blue slipping down and even leveling off at 233 days dark green graph 3 of course nothing in the real world is certain things can turn on a dime but momentum in nvda price movement has at best stalled and might be ready to plunge this analysis is admittedly simple minded but i believe the sequence of lower highs and lower lows in the 5 day ema line thin blue coupled with the faltering momentum signals that putting money into nvda stock now would be at greater than normal risk a much lower risk time to buy will probably come in a few weeks or months and a similar analysis can help to identify that time disclaimer i am not a financial or investment advisor i do these mental speculations for my own amusement and edification make your own decisions and chose wisely which is pretty damned difficult graphs are from my own files posted by jazzbumpa at 7 12 pm no comments sunday january 7 2024 nvidia revisited on august 26 2023 5 days before it a new closing hi at 493 55 i wrote a critical post about nvda the stock not the company after that the stock took a nose dive falling 16 9 to 410 17 on 9 26 23 that would have been a good buying opportunity of you were an agile trader or had a strong stomach after rising to 469 on 10 12 23 it fell to a new lo at 405 on 10 27 23 but it bounced quickly reaching a marginal new high at 496 56 on 11 14 23 in the 2 months since it s wobbled a bit going nowhere to close at 490 97 on 1 05 24 actually the stock has been in the doldrums for 4 1 2 months and pays no dividend see graph 1 graph 1 per yahoo finance the current p e is a wildly unsustainable 64 94 but never underestimate the irrationality of the market over a 24 month span the stock is up 80 while the nasdaq is off almost 3 this i believe emphasizes the unsustainability of the stock price see graph 2 graph 2 source yahoo finance the difficulty in this kind of a situation is that the stock might have peaked or it might just be building a base for a new advance if i owned this stock i do not i wouldn t be in a big hurry to sell it all but i would be watching carefully for the signs of a likely possibly even inevitable collapse it s happened before in 2022 it dropped 66 since august of 2023 it s been distressingly volatile while not advancing so i might consider selling some to lock in a hefty profit but if the 5 day ema drops below 162 and keeps heading down i d dump it see graph 3 graph 3 disclaimer i am not a financial or investment advisor i do these mental speculations for my own amusement and edification make your own decisions and chose wisely which is pretty damned difficult note graphs 1 and 3 are from my files posted by jazzbumpa at 3 01 pm no comments thursday october 19 2023 test post posted by jazzbumpa at 4 26 pm no comments saturday august 26 2023 some thought on nvidia this week nvda wildly exceeded revenue guidance posting 13 5 billion vs the expected 11 billion an increase of 101 over the same quarter last year impressive no on thursday the stock hit a new intraday hi of 502 66 just after the opening but then fell the rest of the day losing 31 points and closing at 471 63 a fraction above the day s lo graph 1 from yahoo finance graph 1 nvda 8 23 to 8 25 the most recent new closing high was 474 94 on 7 18 more than a month ago here s a hard and unpleasant fact even with this earnings blow out the p e ratio is 110 89 will you scoff at me if i suggest that this is not sustainable and the lack of a new closing high after this earnings report is not a good sign further friday s close was off 11 45 points or 2 43 i wonder at this level are there many buyers left let s take a look from a longer view graph 2 shows daily closings from the middle of last year along with trend lines and exponential moving averages data source yahoo finance graph 2 nvda closings from mid 2022 like just about everything else nvda dropped dramatically through the first 9 months of 2022 from the hi of 336 71 on 11 29 21 it slumped to a low of 112 27 on 10 14 22 a staggering loss of 66 36 then at the end of the year there was a higher lo suggesting that the drop might be complete this became an even stronger suggestion when the price crossed over the descending trend line in violet a few weeks later from there it was up up and away until the recent all time highs on 5 24 23 the stock rose 24 4 in a single day and kept climbing for almost 2 more months this leap carried the price far above the green up slanting trend line and this is what irrational exuberance looks like graph 3 is a look at exponential moving averages of daily closings from 5 day to 233 day periods graph 3 exponential moving averages the thin blue line is the 5 day ema it is more volatile and quicker moving than the longer emas after its low of 116 83 on 10 14 22 the next intermediate low was 145 29 on 1 04 23 this also suggests that the bottom was in this was confirmed by the cluster of long ema lines in early february from feb 1 to 21 the stock bounced around in the 210 to 220 range while all the ema s continued rising all the long emas 55 to 233 day continued rising right through 8 25 23 but the shorter ones have faltered the 5 ema line hit 462 9 on 7 19 then topped at 463 on 8 01 indicated on graph 3 with the red horizontal line it got close again on 8 24 and 8 25 but stalled under 462 this looks to me like topping action if 463 turns out to be a hard resistance line then nvda is going to falter right now it s hovering in tulip bulb territory and a crash could be brutal if the p e were to revert to a much more reasonable level of 30 for instance the price would have to drop to about 125 for a loss of 73 percent from the 8 25 close of 460 18 for comparison alphabet goog has a p e of 27 57 apple appl is at 29 92 and microsoft msft is at 32 46 there s a lot of if here and i don t have a crystal ball the recent stall might be a pause to consolidate before the stock price doubles again the market can stay irrational longer than most of us can stay solvent nvda ia a great company but at these prices i don t think it s a great stock edit here is an interesting insight for what its worth source https twitter com jaguaranalytics status 1695109989663219925 posted by jazzbumpa at 8 38 am no comments monday september 19 2022 taking stock sept 20 2022 the indexes stayed close to the neutral point for most of the day then turned up before 3 00 the sp 500 finished at 3899 99 less than a point below the late day hi for a gain of 26 66 0 69 this week the fed will have a two day meeting to set policy another rate increase of 0 75 or more is expected this is not surprising since as i pointed out on sept 1 the fed is far behind the market set 3 month t bill rate link below there is no surprise here so it could be that the anticipated increase is already baked into the market s reaction if that even matters meanwhile the index is hovering near the last reasonable retracement level from the 8 16 hi coincidentally located in the midst of a broad support resistance range between 3700 and 3900 for what it s worth the day s hi and lo were both marginally above those of friday s session you find whatever positives you can link posted by jazzbumpa at 4 51 pm 1 comment saturday september 17 2022 taking stock after 4 up days ending in a gain of 5 15 i was not surprised to see a pull back in the sp500 on tuesday but i was astounded by the magnitude and then the follow through at friday s lo 3837 08 the index was almost 14 points 0 36 under 3850 76 this is the 786 retracement level from the 8 16 hi the last reasonable level to support the current increasingly wobbly bull case it s also in the midst of a support resistence range between 3700 and 3900 dating back to june the only slightly bright glimmer i can find is that after hitting the day s lo shortly after noon the index rose 36 25 points 0 94 into the close at 3873 33 most of this rise happened after 2 30 p m if the index continues falling next week then the 6 17 lo is at risk then if that is breached the index could reach as lo as 3200 posted by jazzbumpa at 2 16 pm no comments thursday september 1 2022 fed schmed it seems the fed likes to keep the federal funds rate slightly above the 3 month t bill rate but the ffr almost always follows the t bill rate and almost never leads r ight now it is lagging and that might be why pundits are expecting another 75 increase in september posted by jazzbumpa at 1 05 pm 1 comment wednesday august 24 2022 taking stock tuesday august 23 2022 with updates let s assume that the 6 16 lo in the sp500 index at 3636 87 was the end of a corrective wave from the 1 03 all time high and that the action since is the beginning of the next impulse wave up to new higher highs to confirm this notion will requite identifying a five wave form up from the 6 16 lo if so then wave 1 up was a gain of 308 99 points to a local hi at 3945 86 on 6 28 wave 2 down followed the typical 3 sub wave down up down pattern to a local lo at 3790 38 on 7 14 a retracement of 50 8 then wave three up terminated at the local hi at 4325 28 on 8 16 and the index is now in wave 4 down retracements are frequently at or near 38 2 50 or 61 8 of the previous move the resulting values would be 4120 95 4057 83 and 3994 71 respectively indicated with red lines on the chart today s session was almost flat and the lo at 4129 86 is within 9 points of the 38 2 retracement level on the way up in wave 3 the index stalled in a range near 4178 heavy blue line a resistance level extending back to march 2021 when the index was on its way up to the all time hi coincidentally the 144 day exponential moving average dark purple curve on the graph is moving through that same range and can contribute to either resistance or support on the graph daily highs are connected with a thin green line lows in red and closings in blue the highs and lows are used in this analysis there are three possibilities at this point 1 the index is close to completing wave 4 down and will soon move into wave 5 up extending beyond the wave 3 hi at 4325 28 2 there will be a deeper retracement probably to another of the typical levels followed by wave 5 up 3 this entire analysis is wrong and the index will continue to fall below 3636 to new lows i think 3 is the least likely but the picture should clarify over the next several days update thursday 8 25 yesterday s sp500 lo at 4119 97 is within a single point of the 382 retracement level at 4120 85 that i mentioned on tuesday this might just be a coincidence but if the index climbs from there to close above the 8 16 hi at 4325 28 that will increase confidence that wave 4 is complete and that wave 5 will continue up to at least 4430 heavy green line on the chart and possibly as high as 4650 before the next corrective wave today it finished at 4200 54 marginally above the blue line at 4176 a support resistance level dating back to april 21 if it falls back down again wave 4 is probably still unfolding update friday 8 26 the market took a hard turn to the downside today i mentioned this possibility yesterday but did not expect it and certainly not at this magnitude the sp500 did a brief zig zag in the first half hour dropped in the next half hour then slid the rest of the day to finish at the lo the lo 4057 66 is within 34 points of the 50 retracement level at 4023 52 the chart shows all of wave 3 and the unfolding wave 4 yesterday the index peeked above the support resistance level at 4178 but it could not hold this resistance is proving to be more formidable than i thought this could still be corrective wave 4 and that will remains my opinion until proven otherwise a drop under the 7 17 lo will make this position hard to justify and a further drop below the 6 16 lo at 3636 87 will negate it completely we ll see how it plays out over the next several days posted by jazzbumpa at 1 52 pm no comments labels elliott wave stock market tuesday january 11 2022 taking stock week of january 10 2022 monday january 10 2022 sp500 at the close 4 670 29 6 74 0 14 dji30 36 068 87 162 79 0 45 nasdaq 14 942 83 6 93 0 05 russell 2000 2 171 15 8 66 0 40 the sp500 started negative took a deep dive to 4582 the lo off 95 before 11 00 and coincidentally 95 points below the critical support level but it recovered the rest of the day and finished with only a small loss the dji opened at 36175 the hi off 56 points it dropped to 35640 the lo off a stunning 592 points before 11 00 from there it also recovered finishing with a moderate loss an encouraging point is that both of these indexes finished on up ticks and volume surges the nasdaq opened at 14752 off 184 points and dropped to 14530 its lo before 11 00 it rose the rest of the day to finish at its high for a minuscule gain the russell opened flat at the day s hi and dropped near 2133 the lo before 11 00 after a slight rise it fell again hitting the lo off 45 points before 1 00 from there it rose into the close finishing with a moderate loss all the indexes followed similar paths with deep declines in the morning and strong recoveries later in the day mostly for losses if the upward momentum can continue tomorrow this could be the end of the decline but that is no sure thing so we ll have to wait and see tuesday january 11 2021 sp500 at the close 4 713 07 42 78 0 92 dji30 36 252 02 183 15 0 51 nasdaq 15 153 45 210 62 1 41 russell 2000 2 194 00 22 85 1 05 the sp500 opened at 2669 off a point and fell to 4638 the lo before 10 00 before 11 00 it started rising and ran sideways for the last hour and closed 1 point under the hi for a substantial gain the dji opened at 36059 off 10 and fell to 35769 the lo off 299 before 10 00 it then climbed hitting 36271 the hi after 3 00 then slid about 30 points into the close for a moderate gain the nasdaq opened at 1419 off 24 points it dropped to 14838 the lo off 105 at 9 45 it climbed until noon then ran mostly sideways into...
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