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ginandtacos, naked, quick, announcements, baseline, scenario, grasping, reality, hands, abby, illusion, prosperity, maduro, gone, badtux, snarky, penguin, ways, dealing, leisure, econospeak, broom, sweeping, cerebral, dept, nance, competitiveness, crooked, timber, commentary, glossary, xword, info, york, heaven, answers, wilbered, announcement, integrate, butler, service, nation, bye, confidential, run, cruciverb, hours, guilherme, gilioli, puzzledom, andrew, bacevich, caustic, critique, penchant, empire, limits, power, eric, rauchway, title, introduction, kirk, rambling, summa, apologica, conservatives, burke, eliot, hayes, johnson, indictment, reagan, administration, sleepwalking, thom, hartman, undeclared, class, thomas, paine, america, important, royalist, rabble, rousing, revolution, inspiring, polemic, sense, required, reading, king, silversonic, prized, possesion, stats, visitor, count, adventures, running, changed, 1980, wijit, economy, oddities, possible, universe, profile, mediocre, trombonist, excellent, grandfather, reasonably, decent, husband, concerned, citizen, leaning, pseudo, analytical, thinker, versifier, parodist, snarkmeister, philologist, grey, haired, cook, congenital, ass, lakes, basin, mike, kimel, check, cite, authority, proof, reputable, assertion, examples, want, seriously, rules, engagement, handed, stays, light, meant, directions, www, kitco, adviser, registered, guy, playing, ideas, telling, anybody, penny, speculating, fun, topic, label, column, welcome, readers, subscribe, atom, older, seeing, motion, 0ff, 15723, 15694, 36386, 36304, spend, 36485, surrounded, ends, 4787, vertically, 245, 644, 338, 2249, 2272, 2265, 15759, 15855, nutil, 15868, 15729, 36522, 36679, 191, 36500, wound, 36372, missed, 4794, 4809, drifted, 248, 741, 778, pushing, validate, 2237, 2253, snaked, staying, 2243, 15795, 15680, 102, 15792, 36421, 36396, 46572, 4789, 4793, 4804, 249, 488, 2261, 2275, struggled, 2257, 15895, 15901, bumpy, 15757, 114, path, 36302, 36527, 225, 36344, does, impede, 4795, looking, 4780, wandered, 781, nice, santa, clause, 2242, 2230, 2255, 2250, 155844, 15825, 400, 15697, 15763, 35954, 36077, 36187, 36265, 36200, approaching, 4677, maintain, phase, ahead, immediate, 4750, 4784, 261, 871, 217, 302, 351, 791, bleeding, stop, slowed, substantially, hopeful, brings, minimum, spiked, 4617, breach, 206, 080, 236, 170, 696, futures, est, carry, refuted, closer, significantly, rare, 522, 407, 392, 700, strangely, disconnected, general, consistent, idea, experiencing, ongoing, thrust, 2288, dead, 15852, 15538, 15607, 15512, 320, 132, 36636, 36935, 350, 36740, 155, 36890, 255, 215, obviously, moment, hung, 4805, 4819, 268, 622, 799, 214, considered, ambiguous, 2284, 2260, naqsdaq, 15733, 15785, stepped, 15820, 15832, remans, ponits, 36322, 36246, 36495, 4758, 4786, 272, 832, 187, 585, 796, weekly, contours, magnitudes, unity, guess, backwards, 2158, 2156, 2126, steadily, 14708, 14888, 14689, 14898, 35935, 35996, 35641, 472, added, tracing, diagonal, correct, 4636, 4615, 4665, 893, 911, 662, 2177, 2197, highest, peaks, roller, coaster, occurred, sits, 15245, 15260, 14782, unusually, 36312, 36514, 224, 36044, 4744, 5650, 159, 806, 381, 113, 659, extents, outlier, represents, 2195, 2210, 2169, 15263, 15319, 15117, 36336, 36453, 36168, 4729, 4749, 4707, 4720, concluded, 188, 290, 726, hang, hats, thrilling, motions, volatility, any, 2171, 2155, 2193, 1419, 14838, 105, 36059, 35769, 299, 36271, 2669, 4638, 153, 252, 713, paths, recoveries, thing, wait, 2133, 14752, 184, 14530, encouraging, ticks, surges, 36175, 35640, 592, 4582, 171, 942, 068, 670, opinion, proven, otherwise, position, justify, negate, peeked, hold, proving, formidable, 4023, downside, possibility, expect, certainly, zig, zag, 4200, 4176, falls, coincidence, climbs, confidence, 4430, 4650, 4119, 382, picture, clarify, deeper, completing, possibilities, connected, curve, contribute, 4129, retracements, resulting, 3994, respectively, terminated, confirm, notion, requite, identifying, 308, 3945, sub, pattern, 3790, ight, lagging, pundits, expecting, ffr, follows, likes, federal, funds, schmed, continues, 3200, bright, glimmer, 3873, increasingly, wobbly, bull, resistence, surprised, astounded, 3837, 3850, positives, anticipated, already, baked, reaction, matters, meeting, policy, surprising, pointed, turned, 500, 3899, https, twitter, jaguaranalytics, 1695109989663219925, interesting, insight, edit, ball, stall, pause, consolidate, solvent, comparison, alphabet, goog, apple, appl, microsoft, msft, revert, instance, 125, turns, falter, tulip, bulb, crash, brutal, ones, faltered, quicker, 116, confirmed, cluster, 220, kept, climbing, leap, carried, slanting, exuberance, dramatically, 336, staggering, suggesting, stronger, suggestion, crossed, descending, violet, away, along, unpleasant, fact, ratio, scoff, sustainable, lack, report, sign, wonder, buyers, 474, intraday, 502, 471, guidance, 101, quarter, impressive, test, unsustainable, underestimate, irrationality, peaked, owned, wouldn, hurry, sell, watching, carefully, signs, inevitable, collapse, distressingly, advancing, consider, lock, hefty, profit, drops, keeps, heading, dump, advance, emphasizes, unsustainability, wrote, nose, buying, opportunity, agile, trader, stomach, marginal, 496, wobbled, nowhere, 490, actually, doldrums, pays, dividend, revisited, dot, indicates, erratically, leading, course, nothing, certain, dime, plunge, admittedly, simple, minded, sequence, coupled, putting, help, identify, slipping, leveling, maintained, slopes, throughout, tepid, alive, slide, steep, ranges, sounds, fundamental, basis, determined, emotions, fundamentals, movements, reveal, emotional, stream, confirms, recommendation, isaac, groot, offers, give, humanoid, robot, blackwell, ultra, chip, drive, demand, mega, cap, firms, underperformance, anticipating, developments, expansion, robotics, diversify, reducing, semiconductor, cyclicality, danil, sereda, investing, criteria, paraphrased, partly, pay, perspective, 1200, 120, 135, 148, said, bottomed, launching, pad, soaring, flight, visuals, cool, regards, bewilder, disoriented, court, legend, robert, 1943, 1993, won, grand, slam, selected, davis, cup, ever, win, wimbledon, australian, stable, staple, grass, clover, alfalfa, dried, stored, fodder, animal, livestock, cattle, horses, sheep, nibble, bedding, smaller, pets, rabbits, guinea, pigs, oat, helpful, summer, refresher, suffix, lemonede, sofi, stadium, nfl, compete, member, conference, division, wraps, impression, ram, ade, addle, reel, dance, party, disc, jockey, spinning, medium, electromagnetic, transmit, air, connecting, wires, refer, underlying, communication, broadcasting, industry, electronic, guglielmo, giovanni, maria, 1874, 1st, marquess, italian, frequency, inventor, politician, creation

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nd is that after hitting the day s lo shortly after noon the index rose 36 25 points 0 94 into the close at 3873 33 most of this rise happened after 2 30 p m if the index continues falling next week then the 6 17 lo is at risk then if that is breached the index could reach as lo as 3200 posted by jazzbumpa at 2 16 pm no comments thursday september 1 2022 fed schmed it seems the fed likes to keep the federal funds rate slightly above the 3 month t bill rate but the ffr almost always follows the t bill rate and almost never leads r ight now it is lagging and that might be why pundits are expecting another 75 increase in september posted by jazzbumpa at 1 05 pm 1 comment wednesday august 24 2022 taking stock tuesday august 23 2022 with updates let s assume that the 6 16 lo in the sp500 index at 3636 87 was the end of a corrective wave from the 1 03 all time high and that the action since is the beginning of the next impulse wave up to new higher highs to confirm this notion will requite identifying a five wave form up from the 6 16 lo if so then wave 1 up was a gain of 308 99 points to a local hi at 3945 86 on 6 28 wave 2 down followed the typical 3 sub wave down up down pattern to a local lo at 3790 38 on 7 14 a retracement of 50 8 then wave three up terminated at the local hi at 4325 28 on 8 16 and the index is now in wave 4 down retracements are frequently at or near 38 2 50 or 61 8 of the previous move the resulting values would be 4120 95 4057 83 and 3994 71 respectively indicated with red lines on the chart today s session was almost flat and the lo at 4129 86 is within 9 points of the 38 2 retracement level on the way up in wave 3 the index stalled in a range near 4178 heavy blue line a resistance level extending back to march 2021 when the index was on its way up to the all time hi coincidentally the 144 day exponential moving average dark purple curve on the graph is moving through that same range and can contribute to either resistance or support on the graph daily highs are connected with a thin green line lows in red and closings in blue the highs and lows are used in this analysis there are three possibilities at this point 1 the index is close to completing wave 4 down and will soon move into wave 5 up extending beyond the wave 3 hi at 4325 28 2 there will be a deeper retracement probably to another of the typical levels followed by wave 5 up 3 this entire analysis is wrong and the index will continue to fall below 3636 to new lows i think 3 is the least likely but the picture should clarify over the next several days update thursday 8 25 yesterday s sp500 lo at 4119 97 is within a single point of the 382 retracement level at 4120 85 that i mentioned on tuesday this might just be a coincidence but if the index climbs from there to close above the 8 16 hi at 4325 28 that will increase confidence that wave 4 is complete and that wave 5 will continue up to at least 4430 heavy green line on the chart and possibly as high as 4650 before the next corrective wave today it finished at 4200 54 marginally above the blue line at 4176 a support resistance level dating back to april 21 if it falls back down again wave 4 is probably still unfolding update friday 8 26 the market took a hard turn to the downside today i mentioned this possibility yesterday but did not expect it and certainly not at this magnitude the sp500 did a brief zig zag in the first half hour dropped in the next half hour then slid the rest of the day to finish at the lo the lo 4057 66 is within 34 points of the 50 retracement level at 4023 52 the chart shows all of wave 3 and the unfolding wave 4 yesterday the index peeked above the support resistance level at 4178 but it could not hold this resistance is proving to be more formidable than i thought this could still be corrective wave 4 and that will remains my opinion until proven otherwise a drop under the 7 17 lo will make this position hard to justify and a further drop below the 6 16 lo at 3636 87 will negate it completely we ll see how it plays out over the next several days posted by jazzbumpa at 1 52 pm no comments labels elliott wave stock market tuesday january 11 2022 taking stock week of january 10 2022 monday january 10 2022 sp500 at the close 4 670 29 6 74 0 14 dji30 36 068 87 162 79 0 45 nasdaq 14 942 83 6 93 0 05 russell 2000 2 171 15 8 66 0 40 the sp500 started negative took a deep dive to 4582 the lo off 95 before 11 00 and coincidentally 95 points below the critical support level but it recovered the rest of the day and finished with only a small loss the dji opened at 36175 the hi off 56 points it dropped to 35640 the lo off a stunning 592 points before 11 00 from there it also recovered finishing with a moderate loss an encouraging point is that both of these indexes finished on up ticks and volume surges the nasdaq opened at 14752 off 184 points and dropped to 14530 its lo before 11 00 it rose the rest of the day to finish at its high for a minuscule gain the russell opened flat at the day s hi and dropped near 2133 the lo before 11 00 after a slight rise it fell again hitting the lo off 45 points before 1 00 from there it rose into the close finishing with a moderate loss all the indexes followed similar paths with deep declines in the morning and strong recoveries later in the day mostly for losses if the upward momentum can continue tomorrow this could be the end of the decline but that is no sure thing so we ll have to wait and see tuesday january 11 2021 sp500 at the close 4 713 07 42 78 0 92 dji30 36 252 02 183 15 0 51 nasdaq 15 153 45 210 62 1 41 russell 2000 2 194 00 22 85 1 05 the sp500 opened at 2669 off a point and fell to 4638 the lo before 10 00 before 11 00 it started rising and ran sideways for the last hour and closed 1 point under the hi for a substantial gain the dji opened at 36059 off 10 and fell to 35769 the lo off 299 before 10 00 it then climbed hitting 36271 the hi after 3 00 then slid about 30 points into the close for a moderate gain the nasdaq opened at 1419 off 24 points it dropped to 14838 the lo off 105 at 9 45 it climbed until noon then ran mostly sideways into the close finishing with a large gain the russell opened flat at 2171 it fell to 2155 the lo off 16 points it reached 2193 after 2 00 and then ran sideways into the close for a substantial gain all the indexes dropped early then recovered hitting their highs in the afternoon when motions were more or less flat clearly recent days have been a time of above normal volatility and that might not end any time soon hang on to your hats the ride could get thrilling wednesday january 12 2021 sp500 at the close 4 726 35 13 28 0 28 dji30 36 290 32 38 30 0 11 nasdaq 15 188 39 34 94 0 23 russell 2000 2 176 06 17 95 0 82 the sp500 opened at 4729 up 16 points it rose to 4749 the hi up 36 at 10 45 and dropped to 4707 the lo at 11 15 the rest of the day it chopped mostly sideways around 4720 and concluded with a small drop on a volume surge ending with a small gain the dji30 opened at 36336 up 84 points it reached 36453 the hi up 201 then fell to 36168 off 84 it chopped around the rest of the day dropping slightly below neutral a couple more times at the end it slid a few points into the close on a volume surge the nasdaq opened at 15263 up 110 it reached the hi 15319 at 9 45 then dropped to the lo 15117 between 11 00 and 11 30 the rest of the day was mostly sideways and slightly positive ending with a slight gain the russell 2000 opened at 2195 up less than a point it reached 2210 the hi at 10 00 then fell to 2169 the lo at 11 15 it spent the rest of the day in the red and finished with a substantial loss the other 3 indexes were positive to small extents the russell is often an outlier but represents a far greater number of issues and even in that case the day s hi and lo are both higher so the span moved up though the close was down so this day is inconclusive i hope thursday january 13 2021 sp500 at the close 4 659 03 67 32 1 42 dji30 36 113 62 176 70 0 49 nasdaq 14 806 81 381 58 2 51 russell 2000 2 159 44 16 62 0 76 the sp500 opened at 4733 up 7 points it reached 4744 up 18 points at 10 00 then fell the rest of the day it hit 5650 the lo just moments before and 9 points below the close it finished with a large loss the dji 30 opened at 36312 up 22 it hovered near 36514 up 224 from 11 30 until noon it fell in 2 steps to 36044 the lo moments before and 69 points under the close it finished with a moderate loss the nasdaq opened at 15245 up 57 and reached 15260 the hi before 10 00 it fell in 3 steps reaching 14782 the lo a few minutes before and 25 points below the close it finished with a unusually large loss the russell 2000 opened at 2177 up a point i reached 2197 the hi at 10 00 this was the first and highest of three peaks in the roller coaster ride to the bottom this occurred minutes before and 5 points below the close it finished with a substantial loss it sits now at a support level extending back a year friday january 14 2021 sp500 at the close 4 662 85 3 82 0 08 dji30 35 911 80 201 79 0 56 nasdaq 14 893 80 86 95 0 59 russell 2000 2 162 46 3 02 0 14 the sp500 opened at 4636 off 21 points it rose close to the day s hi before 10 30 but fell back to 4615 the lo before 1 30 it then rose again hitting 4665 the hi just before closing about 2 points lower for a minuscule gain i ve added a lower trend line to the chart starting at 10 4 21 the index might be tracing an ending diagonal if correct there could be a blow off ending followed by a sharp decline we ll have to see how this plays out the dji30 opened at 35996 the day s hi off 117 it dropped to 35641 the lo off 472 before 1 30 it then rose to 35935 moments before the close 23 points lower for a modest loss the nasdaq opened at 14708 off 99 points it rose to 14888 near the hi before 9 30 then dropped hitting 14689 the lo off 117 before 1 30 from there it rose again reaching 14898 the hi moments before the close for a modest gain the russell 2000 opened at 2158 off a point it reached 2156 off 3 before 10 30 it fell hovering near 2126 the lo around 1 30 it then climbed steadily to close at the hi for a small gain the indexes all had roughly similar contours but with different magnitudes at different levels diversity in unity i guess though i may have that backwards weekly changes sp500 0 30 dji30 0 88 nasdaq 0 28 russell 2000 0 80 posted by jazzbumpa at 4 30 pm no comments monday january 3 2022 monday december 31 2022 green arrow up sp500 at the close 4 796 56 30 38 0 64 dji30 36 585 06 246 76 0 68 nasdaq 15 832 80 187 83 1 20 russell 2000 2 272 56 27 24 1 21 the sp500 opened at 4778 up 12 points and after a rise dropped quickly hitting 4758 the lo before 10 00 it stayed below 4786 until 2 00 then rose to close within a fraction of the late day hi for a solid gain it achieved a new closing hi but not a new intra day hi this is an outside day with the hi higher by 10 points and the lo lower by 7 the index is still stalled near 4788 the critical resistance level identified last week the dji30 opened at 36322 off 17 it first rose then fell to 36246 the lo off 92 before 10 00 it stayed below 36495 until 2 00 then rose closing within a point of the late day hi for a solid gain it also achieved a new closing hi but not a new intra day hi it had an outside day with the hi higher by 11 points and the lo lower by 58 it also seems stalled near the earlier highs from november the naqsdaq opened at 15733 up 88 after a brief rise it fell to 15644 off a fraction before 10 00 it stayed below 15785 until after 1 30 it stepped up to 15820 after 2 30 then went mostly sideways to close at 15832 the hi for a substantial gain it had a higher higher by 55 points but the bottom was flat it remans about 70 ponits under the early november highs the russell 2000 opened at 2247 the lo up over a point it reached 2284 the hi up 38 at 10 30 it dropped to 2260 after 11 30 and stayed at that level until after 3 00 after a slight dip it rose into the close 12 points under the mid morning hi it had a clearly up day by 26 points at the top and 2 at the bottom and remains about 200 points under the early november highs all things considered this is a pretty good start to the week but the situation is still ambiguous tuesday january 4 2022 sp500 at the close 4 793 54 3 02 0 06 dji30 36 799 65 214 59 0 59 nasdaq 15 622 72 210 08 1 33 russell 2000 2 268 87 23 56 1 05 the sp500 opened at 4805 up 8 points and rose to 4819 the hi up 22 before 10 00 it then fell hitting 4774 the lo off 22 at 2 00 it climbed again hitting 4807 at 3 50 but then fell 11 points to close with a minute loss on a volume surge the index is still hung up near the 4788 critical resistance level the dji30 opened at 36636 the lo up 51 points and hit 36935 the hi up 350 before 11 00 it drooped to 36740 up 155 at 2 00 rose to 36890 at 3 50 then dropped 90 points into the close on a volume surge still the index achieved a new intra day hi by 255 points and at the closing by 215 obviously this is a clearly up day that spent every moment well into positive territory the nasdaq opened at 15852 the hi up 19 but fell to 15538 at 11 00 it stayed below 15607 until after 3 00 reaching 15512 the lo off 320 when it had a slight rise but then fell into the close on a volume surge because of the opening gain this was an outside day but the lo was lower by 132 points the russell 2000 opened at 2247 the lo up 2 points it immediately rose to 2288 the hi up 43 it then slumped reaching 2258 after 11 00 from there it meandered into the close for the day s largest gain th hi was up 4 points but the lo was dead even with yesterday s the indexes were strangely disconnected today so no general trend can be identified i m taking this to be consistent with the idea that they are experiencing an ongoing corrective wave against a higher level upward thrust though the dji and russell might be starting the next upward wave this is all very uncertain wednesday january 5 2022 red arrow down sp500 at the close 4 700 58 92 96 1 94 dji30 36 407 11 392 54 1 07 nasdaq 15 100 17 522 54 3 34 russell 2000 2 194 00 74 87 3 30 this was not very good day right from the beginning then after 2 00 it got really bad for all the indexes changes of a percent or so in either direction are not uncommon changes of 2 percent are uncommon changes of over 3 are rare the sp500 dropped almost 2 today and is now closer to the critical support level than it is to the critical resistance level i mentioned several times recently if that is breached significantly then the presumed up trend is refuted futures are close to flat but slightly positive as i write this shortly after 9 00 p m est we ll see if that can carry into the next session thursday january 6 2022 sp500 at the close 4 696 05 4 53 0 10 dji30 36 236 47 170 64 0 47 nasdaq 15 080 87 19 31 0 13 russell 2000 2 206 37 12 37 0 56 the sp500 opened and closed slightly negative in between it stayed within 25 points above ...