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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during August 2021;
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save and repair strategy immunizes a hopelessly false and irrelevant model by this i do not mean to say that empirical methods per se are so problematic that they can never be used on the contrary i am basically though not without reservations in favour of the increased use of behavioural experiments and laboratory research within economics not least as an alternative to completely barren bridge less axiomatic deductive theory models my criticism is more about aspiration levels and what we believe that we can achieve with our mediational epistemological tools and methods in the social sciences the increasing use of natural and quasi natural experiments in economics during the last couple of decades has led several prominent economists to triumphantly declare it as a major step on a recent path toward empirics where instead of being a deductive philosophy economics is now increasingly becoming an inductive science limiting model assumptions in economic science always have to be closely examined since if we are going to be able to show that the mechanisms or causes that we isolate and handle in our models are stable in the sense that they do not change when we export them to our target systems we have to be able to show that they do not only hold under ceteris paribus conditions and a fortiori only are of limited value to our understanding explanations or predictions of real economic systems ideally controlled experiments tell us with certainty what causes what effects but only given the right closures making appropriate extrapolations from ideal accidental natural or quasi experiments to different settings populations or target systems is not easy it works there is no evidence for it will work here causes deduced in an experimental setting still have to show that they come with an export warrant to the target system the causal background assumptions made have to be justified and without licenses to export the value of rigorous and precise methods is despairingly small taking assumptions like utility maximization or market equilibrium as a matter of course leads to the standing presumption in economics that if an empirical statement is deduced from standard assumptions then that statement is reliable the ongoing importance of these assumptions is especially evident in those areas of economic research where empirical results are challenging standard views on economic behaviour like experimental economics or behavioural finance from the perspective of model platonism these research areas are still framed by the superior insights associated with early 20th century concepts essentially because almost all of their results are framed in terms of rational individuals who engage in optimizing behaviour and thereby attain equilibrium while the mere emergence of research areas like experimental economics is sometimes deemed a clear sign for the advent of a new era a closer look at these fields allows us to illustrate the enduring relevance of the model platonism topos and thereby shows the pervasion of these fields with a traditional neoclassical style of thought jakob kapeller so although it is good that behavioural economists are rewarded nobel prizes and that much of their research has vastly undermined the lure of axiomatic deductive mainstream economics there is still a long way to go before economics has become a truly empirical science the great challenge for future economics is not to develop methodologies and theories for well controlled laboratories but to develop relevant methodologies and theories for the messy world in which we happen to live an economic theory that does not go beyond proving theorems and conditional if then statements and do not make assertions and put forward hypotheses about real world individuals and institutions is of little consequence for anyone wanting to use theories to better understand explain or predict real world phenomena building theories and models on patently ridiculous assumptions we know people never conform to does not deliver real science real and reasonable people have no reason to believe in as if models of rational robot imitations acting and deciding in a walt disney world characterised by common knowledge full information rational expectations zero transaction costs given stochastic probability distributions risk reduced genuine uncertainty and other laughable nonsense assumptions of the same ilk science fiction is not science for decades now economics students have been complaining about the way economics is taught their complaints are justified force feeding young and open minded people with unverified and useless autistic mainstream theories and models cannot be the right way to develop a relevant and realist economic science much work done in mainstream theoretical economics is devoid of any explanatory interest and not only that seen from a strictly scientific point of view it has no value at all it is a waste of time and as so many have been experiencing in modern times of austerity policies and market fundamentalism a very harmful waste of time an alternative to mainstream orthodoxy that has been discussed much lately is so the called complexity economics and its agent based modelling agent based models are formal models usually constructed using mathematical programming and performing simulations and artificial experiments with the intention of being able to more explicitly than in conventional mainstream game theory describe aggregate effects and dynamics of interacting individuals and socio economic structures without standardly having to assume equilibria non emergence walrasian auctioneers representative agents rational expectations etc etc agent based models come in different degrees of realism and are usually conceptualised as different kinds of self organising complex systems but one thing they all have in common is reliance on mathematical formalism in essence the agent based modelling endeavour in macroeconomics is an attempt at providing new alternative mathematical models where many of the bizarre and ridiculous known to be unrealistic assumptions in standard dsge models are replaced with other less unrealistic assumptions but the idea that mathematical modelling as such is always appropriate to apply is never seriously questioned and that s where i find it hard to follow one set of mathematical tractability assumptions are substituted for another but what if the mathematical modelling in itself is the problem what if the use of mathematical formalistic modelling in itself biases your research efforts in specific directions if it is the mathematical formalistic approach in itself that is the problem we only end up with different models based on the same unquestioned mathematical modelling strategy from my own critical realist perspective i can t see that mathematical modelling is the self evidently appropriate way to perform analyses of societies and economies the kind of closures demanded of the target systems for warranting the analyses i would argue simply often aren t there as a critique of mainstream economics yours truly fully appreciates the work done by the complexity economists but although their alternative agent based models in many ways are superior to the more traditional mainstream walt disney kind of models i am not convinced that their unquestioned attachment to mathematical formalist modelling is the right way to move forward in making economics a more realist and relevant science share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how to do philosophy 16 aug 2021 at 19 25 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on how to do philosophy a contest was announced to see who could do the best job of carving up a side of beef the judge was announced as a famous chef who had earned two michelin stars attracted by the prize money a butcher and an analytic philosopher entered the contest the analytic philosopher went first a fresh side of beef was placed on a large wooden table and he approached to begin he was dressed in freshly pressed chinos and a button down shirt the analytic philosopher laid a leather case on one corner of the table and opened it revealing a gleaming set of perfectly matched scalpels newly sharpened he selected one scalpel carefully and addressed the side of beef after inspecting its surface carefully he raised his hand and made the first cut a precise slice in a perfectly straight line working steadily but with meticulous care he proceeded to make slices and cross slices until he had completed the carving of the beef a task that took him the better part of an hour when he had finished he stepped back wiped the scalpel clean on a piece of paper toweling replaced it in the case and with a bow to the judge withdrew the butcher was next up her side of beef was on a table next to that on which the analytic philosopher had been working she was dressed in overalls and a butcher s apron on which one could see spots of blood and stains from her work she took out a cleaver a saw and a sharp butcher s knife and went to work on her side of beef wasting no time bits of fat and gristle flew here and there some ending up on her apron and even in her hair which she had covered with a net she whistled as she worked at the table until with a flourish she put down her saw bowed to the judge and stepped back the judge examined each table for no more than a moment and then without the slightest hesitation handed the prize to the butcher the analytic philosopher was stunned but he protested there is simply no comparison between the results on the two tables the butcher s table is a shambles a heap of pieces of meat with fat and bits of bone and drops of blood all over the place my table is pristine a careful display of perfectly carved cubes of meat all with parallel sides and exactly the same size why on earth have you given the prize to the butcher the judge explained the butcher has turned her side of beef into a usable array of porterhouse steaks t bone steaks sirloin steaks beef roasts and a small pile of beef scraps ready to be ground up for chop meat she clearly knew where the joints were in the beef how to cut against the grain with the tough parts where to apply her saw you on the other hand have reduced a perfectly good grade a side of beef to stew meat moral when butchering a side of beef it is best to know something about what lies beneath its surface observation this is also not a bad idea when doing philosophy robert paul wolff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky was aus dem arabischen frühling wurde 16 aug 2021 at 18 36 posted in politics society comments off on was aus dem arabischen frühling wurde share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window 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