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cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman tuesday june 30 2015 crotty keynes and commons we re up to pages 5 and 6 in james crotty s paper on the stages of development of capitalism keynes clearly distinguished two historical stages of capitalist development pre world war i or nineteenth century capitalism which i label stage one and post world war i or modern or twentieth century capitalism which i label stage two he argued that these stages had qualitatively different economic outcomes because they had qualitatively distinct institutions and agent practices in a number of writings keynes asserted that while freedom of trade and of capital flows brought peace and prosperity in the nineteenth century the same international system produced imperialism war and depression in the twentieth century a point to which i return in a similar vein keynes often observed that britain s domestic nineteenth century capitalism was characterized by reasonably steady growth price stability adequate employment and rising living standards all produced by a strong and relatively steady pace of capital accumulation in the general theory keynes made the point as follows during the nineteenth century there existed a schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital which allowed a reasonably satisfactory average level of employment to be compatible with a rate of interest high enough to be psychologically acceptable to wealth owners there is evidence that for a period of almost one hundred and fifty years rates of interest were modest enough to encourage a rate of investment consistent with a rate of employment which was not intolerably low keynes 1964 pp 307 8 later in the book he commented on the exuberance of the greatest age of the inducement to invest in nineteenth century england keynes 1964 p 353 and in the economic consequences of the peace he argued that before world war i europe was so organized socially and economically as to secure the maximum of capital accumulation with some continuous improvement in the daily conditions of life of the mass of the population keynes 1920 p 18 second note keynes s belief in the need for a theory that could explain the evolution of qualitatively distinct stages of economic development he aligned himself with commons s view that economic theory had to reflect the existence of three epochs three economic orders upon the third of which we are entering the first according to keynes was a precapitalist era of scarcity with a maximum of communistic feudalistic or governmental coercion which was dominant through the sixteenth century and survived to some degree into the eighteenth century then came the era of abundance with the maximization of individual liberty the minimum of coercive control through government and individual bargaining in the nineteenth century this epoch culminated gloriously in the victories of laissez faire and historic liberalism keynes 1963 p 334 but keynes continued we are now passing through a period of turbulence into a new stage of capitalism an era of stabilization in which societal or governmental controls will replace laissez faire the coming era will require a transition from economic anarchy to a regime which deliberately aims at controlling and directing economic forces in the interests of social justice and social stability keynes 1963 p 335 the era of scarcity the era of abundance and the era of stabilization three stages of capitalist development proposed by professor john commons and as crotty says developed by john maynard keynes jim crotty already made the point we quoted it yesterday i argue that keynes provided the outlines of a theory of the evolution of two distinct stages of capitalist development and anticipated the transition toward a third in which each stage is assumed to possess unique institutions and agent practices that differentiate its processes and outcomes from the other as for myself i think it s optimistic to say we are now passing through a period of turbulence into a new stage of capitalism an era of stabilization why would the economy stabilize isn t stable the same as in equilibrium it is convenient to think about the economy in equilibrium or approaching equilibrium sure but that doesn t mean we ever get there so if we have a time of abundance or let s say a time of generally improving conditions and then the improvement tapers off and if we don t achieve an era of stabilization what happens it s easy if the trend doesn t continue to climb and it refuses to run flat then the only direction left to go is down so we would have rise to a peak rise and decline it would look like part of a business cycle it would look like only part of a business cycle because we re not looking at the whole picture we re only looking at a few hundred years a few hundred years near the peak keynes described the peak he called it the greatest age of the inducement to investment and he said it lasted 150 years if the peak lasted 150 years you re not going to see the whole cycle if you consider only 400 years or so don t think in terms of nations think in terms of civilizations and cycles of civilization thousands of years it s just a business cycle really nothing out of the ordinary out of the ordinary would be to achieve stabilization an age of stabilization that would be special something to shoot for but not part of the natural course of events we ll have to earn it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday june 29 2015 crotty challenges samuelson s keynes when i type marxists into the url box in my browser i get links to the first few chapters of the general theory and to the last couple not so much to the middle chapters where one finds the highly abstract argument and the much controversy that keynes promised in his preface i don t often go to the middle chapters i always figured that was because i m not an economist and the middle chapter stuff has a hard time getting thru my thick skull i still figure that s true but now i have another reason for preferring the first and last parts of keynes s book i found james crotty s pdf on the stages of development of the capitalist economy crotty writes the generally accepted interpretation of the general theory pioneered and popularized by paul samuelson suggests that the consumption marginal efficiency of capital liquidity preference and labor supply functions constitute the scientific core of the book the comments observations and asides that surround this core it is assumed have little scientific value my favorite parts of the book have little scientific value ouch but they re still the best parts jim crotty doesn t accept the generally accepted interpretation if that interpretation is correct he says then the general theory must be a model of capitalism in general equally applicable in all times and in all places where the capitalist system dominates economic activity i argue to the contrary that such a characterization of keynes s theory is profoundly mistaken furthermore he says in the general theory and elsewhere keynes made evident his belief that no all purpose institutionally abstract macromodel can adequately capture the processes and outcomes of distinct phases or stages of capitalist development now we re getting to the good stuff the stages of capitalist development and indeed the title of crotty s pdf should have given me a clue the thick skull strikes again if keynes s macrotheory is indeed historically contingent then he should have developed different versions of his theory to describe and analyze institutionally distinct historical stages of capitalism i argue that keynes provided the outlines of a theory of the evolution of two distinct stages of capitalist development and anticipated the transition toward a third in which each stage is assumed to possess unique institutions and agent practices that differentiate its processes and outcomes from the other in other words if crotty is right about this then we would expect to find in keynes s work a partitioning of capitalism into stages and crotty says we do find this partitioning into stages to me this is exciting stuff i have always been fascinated by the many brief moments in the general theory where the evolution of capitalism is brought to light both the general theory and essays in persuasion i wrote of it last year and five years back crotty continues specifically keynes argues that nineteenth century capitalism differed in institutional and class structure as well as in agent behavior patterns from post world war i capitalism because of these institutional differences nineteenth century capitalism exhibited impressive economic growth and stability whereas twentieth century capitalism was prone to stagnation depression as well as to bouts of extreme instability it becomes important we re talking about a time when capitalism was good and a time now when capitalism is not so good and in this time when capitalism is not so good there is a sort of nostalgia for the better times we see many politicians and economists call for a return to the policies of the nineteenth century in hopes of restoring good to capitalism foolhardy i think i sympathize with their goal but not their methods not sure yet where crotty stands on that but let me quote him one more time to wrap up what he has been saying clearly these sets of profoundly different outcomes cannot be comfortably generated by a single keynesian theory of something called competitive capitalism in the abstract this being the case the question naturally arises as to precisely what the general theory is a theory of and in what sense it is general that leaves us at the top of page two in j r crotty s 16 page pdf posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday june 28 2015 small world recently i found a reddit link on how sovereign debt accelerated the first industrial revolution oh i said i know about that retrieving what i know brought me back to tales of debt mountain 31 august 2010 and that brought me back to that thing keynes said for nothing short of the exuberance of the greatest age of the inducement to investment could have made it possible to lose sight of the theoretical possibility of its insufficiency so i googled the phrase the greatest age of the inducement to invest only a few results turned up mostly my own here on the blog and in comments on other blogs but there was one solid hit that wasn t mine john maynard keynes critical assessment second series by john cunningham wood in the google books in wood s book is the article keynes on the stages of development of the capitalist economy the institutional foundation of keynes s methodology by j r crotty from the journal of economic issues september 1990 vol 24 no 3 in crotty s article google found two hits for the the greatest age phrase i was reading the article for a while finding much that i like and only a little to raise an eyebrow at unusual i know suddenly i got feedback from my brain j r crotty i think i ve seen that name before so i did a google search for it on the blog yup i referenced him before small world seeming agreement remarkable alignment and all that pretty cool as i read more of crotty s article i kept finding quotable stuff so welcome to crotty week posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday june 27 2015 off the mark via reddit from the imf the working paper what really drives public debt a holistic approach pdf 25 pages from the intro recent years have witnessed a rapid increase in public debt in 2007 gross general government debt in advanced economies stood at around 70 percent of gdp by 2013 this had risen to over 105 percent imf 2014 concerns over sovereign debt sustainability have led to significant financial and economic disruption and the optimal policy response to these elevated debt levels is a topic of controversy amongst policymakers and academics the proximate causes of this rapid increase in debt are well know deep recessions reduced nominal gdp and caused primary balances to deteriorate banking sector recapitalisation forced step changes in the debt level and in some cases sovereign bond yields spiked increasing the cost of debt but what is less clear is how these various drivers of debt interacted with each other to propagate or mitigate the eventual impact on the debt level yeah ain t that cute a look at public debt the world begins in 2007 these people can t be that stupid they have to know that for the 60 years before 2007 private debt increased and private debt increased and private debt increased some more they recognize that banking sector recapitalisation was occurring for example and yet their focus is sovereign debt sustainability an overview of their conclusion this paper explores how the various drivers of sovereign debt the primary balance the interest rate growth and inflation interact with each other sovereign credit markets do not seem to systematically respond to sh...
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