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death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 quick and dirty tcmdo per gdp 1960 1975 the limbo cfpy unfinished thoughts islamic finance krugman s graph severity the limbo before 1980 assumptions harvey s new assumptions first robin of spring the limbo infinite diversity in infinite combinations too giamatti to fail the other big debt i can t get no satisfaction a new look at debt if it cost nothing debt would be no problem the trouble with bill mitchell changes indirection but it rhymes speaks for itself invert that thing irony and strange bedfellows 60 times 3 60 times 2½ 60 times 2 and happy birthday aaron assessment 60 times afterthought 2 60 times afterthought 1 60 times catch 22 why capacity utilization matters ambsl gdp gnp nnp ni pi bea nipa 1 7 5 what s normalized and more good trivia the real deal the slowdown akerlof shiller eichengreen grately unless the debt is deliberately eliminated the whole footnote april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman tuesday may 31 2011 quick and dirty tcmdo per gdp 1960 1975 following up on unfinished thoughts total debt relative to nominal gdp a general uptrend from 1960 to 1965 while the cpi increased 9 percent a general downtrend from 1965 to 1969 while the cpi increased 16 percent a general uptrend from 1969 to 1975 while the cpi increased 46 percent can that be right a general uptrend overall while the cpi increased 82 percent inflation as a solution to the debt problem is at best unreliable posted by the arthurian at 6 21 am 0 comments the limbo cfpy it occurs to me that if i take the limbo graph eliminate the early years where there s no data something i have only started to think about in the past few days and take a look at percent change from year ago values i ll get a look at the varying slope of the graph this could be useful because the slope is related to economic performance graph 1 there ya go ah but what do the tea leaves say that is the question first thing i notice is a trend of peaks starting with the first peak after 1960 running to the highest peak in 1983 there are four peak points that lie on a straight line five if you count the low high point of 1971 this rising trend indicates some kind of increasing severity perhaps next thing i notice is the peaks seem to be associated with recessions almost without fail at the right end we have the spike associated with the paulson crisis tallest thing on the graph probably the height of a point indicates not so much severity as the strength of the federal response to recession on the other hand note that before 1974 the entire trend line is below zero this means that the federal debt was growing more slowly than everybody else s debt generally 5 to 10 percent more slowly until 1974 the private economy s strength gave out with that 1974 recession i also observe a peak in 1991 followed by a long and atypical decline lasting until 1998 or so in the middle of that decline there are two breaks at perhaps 1993 and 1996 which make the decline something of a zig zag i think something happened in there to make this decline atypical i think if this part of the trend was typical the 1993 1996 downtrend would have been an uptrend and maybe the 1998 low would not have been as low as it turned out to be graph 2 come to think of it the 1993 1996 period was when the federal budget was moving toward balance graph 3 and just before that there was an unusual increase in the growth of m1 money in the early 1990s graph 4 which followed on the heels of a significant decline in the growth of debt that began in the mid 1980s graph 5 all in all creating a noticeable swoop in the debt per dollar graph from 1990 to 1994 just before the good years just paving the way for the good years that began in 1995 good years that permitted the federal budget to be briefly balanced before things went bad again yeah the slope of the limbo is related to economic performance posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday may 30 2011 unfinished thoughts deflation in a time of excessive debt is the worst possible solution because debt does not deflate with income inflation in a time of excessive debt reduces the debt problem because debt does not inflate with income the notion that inflation can be used to solve our debt problem is a tempting one but it depends on our ability to increase the quantity of money without increasing the accumulation of debt if debt grows as fast as money or faster the debt problem is not resolved capiche our most significant inflation occurred between 1965 and the early 1980s as the blue line shows the red line shows that total debt increased continuously relative to money during that period in other words debt grew so fast in those years that the debt per dollar ratio was not reduced despite the printing of money enough to cause all that inflation the imbalance between money and debt was not corrected despite all that inflation suppose we look at it another way the existing accumulation of debt becomes easier to bear after a period of inflation that is paul krugman s argument right here s my argument the accumulation of debt becomes easier to bear after inflation if and only if the accumulation of debt does not grow faster than prices go up the increase of prices is given by the consumer price index if i divide total debt by the cpi and the trend line goes down then debt grew more slowly than prices went up and inflation solved the problem but if the trend line goes up then debt grew more rapidly than prices went up and inflation did not solve the problem even during the inflation of the 1970s total debt increased more quickly than prices went up inflation did not solve the debt problem krugman s solution was tried and failed in the 1970s oh but i have forgotten to allow for the increase of real output very well then let us look at total debt relative to nominal gdp so that we allow for both real growth and price inflation at the same time if the trend line continues to increase during the inflationary period then again we must say that krugman s solution has failed the rate of increase was noticeable slow in the 1965 1980 period but the trend line continues upward debt increased faster that real output and the price level combined in other words the inflation of those years did not reduce the burden of debt in our economy but we didn t really need to look at another graph to know it we knew it already because the 1970s were sluggish not golden and the 1980s were not much better posted by the arthurian at 5 04 pm 2 comments islamic finance prompted by an article on islamic finance in the financial times the us moves are under way to lower barriers changes in tax law are being considered says aline van duyn many years ago i learned that the church in europe forbade charging interest on loans in the middle ages and that islamic law forbids it still to this day my reaction then as now is that these two religious institutions agreed on the trouble interest and debt can bring upon society and agreed in their reaction against it in europe or so i have read somewhere the church s rule opened the door for jews to become europe s bankers and then it seems to me the troubles that arise from excessive interest became in the practical but small minds of christian europeans of the time troubles arising from jews i m not making this up i m just putting fragments together whether any of them are true i cannot say but lacking any other story i take it for history it was longshanks king of england in the braveheart movie who expelled the jews from england because nobody liked them because of the banking thing centuries before hitler little fragments i know nothing of islamic law but islam arose after the fall of rome and i can imagine that concentrations of wealth and income were far greater then than now and interest was just that much more of a burden and two religions had the same reaction to it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments sunday may 29 2011 krugman s graph from paul krugman s inflation and debt wonkish may 28 2011 10 44 am household debt as of personal disposable income the rapid increase of household debt between 1950 and 1965 created the demand that drove the golden age economy the lack of increase between 1965 and 1985 brought the golden age to an end and produced a listless economy the large deficits and optimistic expectations of the reagan era gave consumer spending a boost in the mid 80s consumer debt growth slowed then in the late 80s and continued at a slower pace for a decade probably because the tax deduction for interest expense was eliminated rapid debt growth resumed after 2000 perhaps in part because of pent up demand from the previous decade and then the inevitable crisis changed everything posted by the arthurian at 9 38 pm 1 comments labels 1966 severity the text following graph 3 of the earlier post today boldly presumes that the 1974 recession was substantially more severe than the 1970 and 1980 recessions following a link from jzb s gdp revisited part 1 to calculated risk turns up this graph the container article introduces gdi as the income measurement version of gdp gdp is the output measurement version income equals output but measurements are imperfect the graph shows both gdi and gdp and there are discrepancies the graph is constructed as a percent of the previous peak in both gdp and gdi this shows when the indicator has bottomed and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak if the indicator is at a new peak the value is 100 for my purpose here i m looking at the bottoms the low poin...
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