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al trend was a steep increase in debt from 1700 to 1820 and after more than a century of persistent increase in public debt gdp was growing like never before graph 3 debt numbers for graph 3 come from robert j barro in macroeconomics a modern approach chapter 14 page 342 barro s mountain figure 14 2 page 344 is smaller than chantrill s graph 1 above but both show a mountain when debt is compared to gdp this look at the raw numbers shows that public debt in the uk did not peak it simply stabilized after 1820 it was the growth of gdp that made public debt seem to shrink the increase in government debt comes before the increase in growth we have public debt increasing 1740 1790 increasing rapidly 1790 1820 then stabilizing at a high level we have real gdp stable before 1759 increasing slightly at the beginning of the industrial revolution 1759 1811 accelerating 1811 1830 and then achieving the sort of growth we long for today we have the increase in public debt first followed by the increase in gdp then there is an acceleration of public debt first followed by acceleration in gdp and then we have public debt stabilizing while gdp growth continues causing the long decline in debt as a percent of gdp that appears on graph 1 in these events we witness the birth of capitalism the industrial revolution began in england around the year 1800 why because society was ready and technology was ready but most of all because net financial assets were available in sufficient quantity posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 10 comments saturday august 30 2014 was an industrial revolution inevitable part two today s post is a direct continuation from yesterday s gregory clark s paper is the sixteen page economic history of the world recommended by integralds at reddit on page three of his paper gregory clark writes thus world economic history poses three interconnected problems why did the malthusian trap persist for so long why did the initial escape from that trap in the industrial revolution occur on one tiny island england in 1800 why was there the consequent great divergence this book proposes an swers to all three of these puzzles answers that point up the connections among them the explanation for both the timing and the nature of the in dustrial revolution and at least in part for the great divergence lies in pro cesses that began thousands of years ago deep in the malthusian era clark asks why did the initial escape from that trap in the industrial revolution occur on one tiny island england in 1800 integralds asks why britain why not japan china india or europe yeah so what does gregory clark have to say about it his is an odd analysis and i have some trouble with it because of the way i was brought up clark s processes that began thousands of years ago is a euphemism for ongoing human evolution for openers he writes in this model the economy of humans in the years before 1800 turns out to be just the natural economy of all animal species with the same kinds of factors determining the living conditions of animals and humans in the years before 1800 clark suggests we were still like dogs and cats and goldfish he writes the darwinian struggle that shaped human nature did not end with the neolithic revolution but continued right up until the industrial revolution note the darwinian struggle for gregory clark this is not a metaphor it is an explanation not only did we evolve from apes later we evolved from cave men we evolved from hunter gatherers into agricultural societies and then at least some of us evolved yet again and it became possible to have an industrial revolution and then i suppose we evolved further because we had an industrial revolution clark plays fast and loose with the concept of evolution for me human nature is human nature that s what makes us human for me human nature doesn t change i m not offering evidence to support my view i m just telling you what i have always thought i read something one time about hitler and his master race and how after world war two in the u s we have de emphasized the idea of genetic superiority as a causal factor and i think that s probably true and i think that s how i was raised and i have to say that for me the idea of human evolution as the cause of the industrial revolution is way off base clark writes for england we will see compelling evidence of differential survival of types in the years 1250 1800 in particular economic success translated powerfully into reproductive success the richest men had twice as many surviving chil dren at death as the poorest the poorest individuals in malthusian england had so few surviving children that their families were dying out the genes of poor people were filtered out of the gene pool and the genes of rich people spread i have trouble evaluating this idea because it s creepy plus i want to say it is wrong people are not poor because of their genes it s a there but for the grace of god thing you know those whose courage and initiative have not been supplemented by exceptional skill or unusual good fortune and yet clark seems to be backing his argument with data all i have is the word creepy clark the attributes that would ensure later economic dynamism patience hard work ingenuity innovativeness education were thus spread ing biologically throughout the population yeah i still have creepy clark softens his touch saying the economy of the preindustrial era was shaping people at least culturally and perhaps also genetically emphasis added perhaps but i cannot evaluate the merits of his idea what i can say is it s not my kind of economics economists always seem to want to manipulate people to change people s behavior in particular ways so as to create particular economic effects i think that s bullshit i think the economists who do that are the ones who don t have a clue about the economy and that s just what gregory clark is doing with evolution one more quote from clark this must be the one integralds had in mind why an industrial revolution in england why not china india or japan the answer hazarded here is that england s advantages were not coal not colonies not the protestant reformation not the enlightenment but the accidents of institutional stability and demography in particular the extraordinary stability of england back to at least 1200 the slow growth of english population between 1300 and 1760 and the extraordinary fecundity of the rich and economically successful the embedding of bourgeois values into the culture and perhaps even the genetics was for these reasons the most advanced in england fecundity and genetics and values oh my posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 6 comments friday august 29 2014 was an industrial revolution inevitable part one i know i just dissed reddit and now i m back well it s not like that really i went back to reddit because i was working on this industrial revolution post this one right here and while i was at reddit i read the rules and took offense to rule two i think those rules were recently changed maybe not maybe i ve been going there for n years and never noticed rule two before i don t think so maybe i m being overly sensitive i don t think so maybe i am thanks g but anyway that s not why we re here right now i went back to r economics for the discussion at the link mberre put up was an industrial revolution inevitable economic growth over the very long run who could resist a title like that not me besides the discussion there s a link to a 54 page pdf by charles i jones bearing the same title as mberre s link it is an nber working paper paper 7375 dated october 1999 and i should get this out of the way first thing the paper is 1999 by charles i jones all rights reserved having said that it seems i am now allowed to quote short sections not over two paragraphs in length without first getting permission i want to quote a short section from the introduction of the jones paper conservative estimates suggest that humans were already distinguishable from other primates 1 million years ago imagine placing a time line corresponding to this million year period along the length of a football field on this time line humans were hunters and gatherers until the agricultural revolution perhaps 10 000 years ago that is for the first 99 yards of the field the height of the roman empire occurs only 7 inches from the rightmost goal line and the industrial revolution begins less than one inch from the field s end large sustained increases in standards of living our working definition of an industrial revolution have occurred during a relatively short time equivalent to the width of a golf ball resting at the end of a football field i like that imagery let me jump back now from the jones pdf to the discussion at mberre s link no says integralds you will not drag me into an industrial revolution discussion today but this paper gives me ideas for an article of the week around november december you can tell from reading his stuff integralds has the perspectives of an economist nobody s gonna boot his stuff off the site you can tell he s good you can t i can t tell he s a he but i m gonna take that bet to keep the text flow going what did you have in mind mberre replies integralds then identifies three papers he might want to recommend for article of the week and says he s already got other papers to recommend for september and october so it looks like november or later for his contribution to the industrial revolution discussion and then he says i think the idea that the ir was the single important macro event in history is still underappreciated by some the discussions of why britain why not japan china india or europe are still interesting the discussion of where the ir came from is interesting ain t it though it s enough to bring you back to reddit despite rule two the first of the three papers integralds identifies is gregory clark s sixteen page economic history of the world who could resist a title like that not me before i get into the 16 page paper i want to quote another short section from the jones paper this time from the conclusion a long time ago the world population was relatively small and the productivity of this population at producing ideas was relatively low in part because of the absence of institutions such as property rights for example in the year 25000 b c the model suggests that it took several hundred years before the society of 3 34 million people produced a single new idea once this idea was discovered however consumption and fertility rose producing a rise in population growth so that there were more people available to find new ideas and the next new idea was discovered more quickly in the model this feedback leads to accelerating rates of population growth and consumption growth provided the aggregate production technology is characterized by increasing returns to accumulable factors in the absence of shocks this general feedback seems capable of producing something like an industrial revolution however the quantitative analysis suggests that changes in institutions to support innovation have been extremely important the rise and decline of institutions such as property rights could be responsible for the rise and decline of great civilizations in the past i didn t read all 54 pages i skipped to the conclusion slow reader but hey i don t want his whole argument i want his idea and i don t want to wait several hundred years to get it the idea is well this will be crude there is maybe one good new idea in maybe two billion man years of human existence it took several hundred years before the society of 3 34 million people produced a single new idea say 600 years 600 years times 3 34 million people is just over two billion man years oh i m doing it again just over two billion person years does that comfort you for charles i jones when a good idea comes along and works its way into the culture society can support a little larger population than it did before and then with a larger population it takes fewer years to accumulate the next two billion man years so the next good idea comes along a little sooner then again the good idea leads to a society that can support more people and the larger population means the next new idea will again come along a little sooner the next time kinda clever kinda mundane not the most interesting analysis i ve ever read but it s a place to start after all as integralds said the discussions of why britain why not japan china india or europe are still interesting the discussion of where the ir came from is interesting it gets interesting so the other guy gregory clark 16 pages here s his opening paragraph the basic outline of world economic history is surprisingly simple indeed it can be summarized in one diagram figure 1 1 before 1800 income per person the food clothing heat light and housing available per head varied across societies and epochs but there was no upward trend a simple but powerful mechanism explained in this book the malthusian trap ensured that short term gains in income through technological advances were inevitably lost through population growth okay it s interesting already clark says a good idea comes along and pushes up per capita income then the population expands and per capita goes down again the best part is clark and jones totally contradict one another they agree that a good idea or a technological advance makes people better off but they go two different directions from there jones says the population increases so good ideas come sooner clark says the population increases so the per capita gains are lost this is a classic contradiction i love it here s the thing for jones the graph of human progress would look like a very slow very long term exponential rise it s always upward it just takes a really really long time to get to the far end of the football field for clark it s not always upward for clark it s up and down here s his figure 1 1 clark figure 1 1 world economic history in one picture incomes rose sharply in many countries after 1800 but declined in others i think clark s graph is more realistic than the one i made up for jones but i have to raise an eyebrow at figure 1 1 it goes back in time some three thousand years and the graph shows all that detail tell you the truth i was drawing wavy lines like that underlining passages in my printout of clark s pdf so far i prefer clark s 16 page argument but we ll see how it goes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments thursday august 28 2014 an open economy maybe an open r economics no posts from perspectives other than those of economists will be removed sayonara r economics posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments wednesday august 27 2014 what do we gain by this we reduce what it costs to have a money supply and that s a big deal it means we reduce the cost push pressures that have troubled our economy since the 1960s at the guardian nobel winning economists chall...
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