Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
june, 2011, the, in, and, debt, thursday, wednesday, don, it, of, krugman, my, world, red, blue, new, arthurian, economics, tuesday, monday, sunday, saturday, friday, evidence, this, long, up, not, style, on, clinton, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, 30, 29, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, yes, if, you, call, interest, really, fewer, by, half, breakout, bearwatch, gedankenexperiment, couldn, interrupt, video, way, blame, obama, for, bush, 2009, deficit, ball, twine, why, is, saying, twenty, cent, trends, must, read, pce, cpi, term, screw, follow, focusing, evolution, thoughtful, from, michael, hudson, at, gang8, point, information, oh, thumbs, down, clarity, ratio, to, money, can, comment, there, so, ll, post, here, singin, different, tune, no, fate, but, what, we, make, as, defines, too, much, better, handle, solution, are, taxes, high, or, low,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (773), and (240), that (188), debt (140), for (89), but (80), money (75), you (69), this (68), not (61), from (59), have (54), tax (53), with (52), there (51), are (48), graph (44), economy (43), what (41), then (41), line (39), one (38), can (37), growth (36), was (35), federal (34), red (34), they (34), more (34), comments (33), #arthurian (33), would (33), think (32), than (32), blue (31), taxes (31), posted (30), post (30), krugman (30), reserve (29), june (29), economic (28), problem (28), will (27), which (26), out (26), all (25), first (25), rate (24), like (24), when (24), much (24), financial (24), interest (24), how (23), don (23), say (23), 2011 (23), make (22), policy (22), just (21), total (21), trend (20), has (20), our (20), high (20), dollar (20), about (19), long (19), percent (19), reserves (19), bank (18), after (18), were (18), new (18), income (18), rates (18), into (17), keen (17), look (17), years (17), really (17), time (17), equilibrium (16), other (16), reduce (16), may (15), thing (15), see (15), does (15), economics (15), get (15), here (15), amount (15), created (15), half (14), been (14), now (14), only (14), year (14), well (14), excessive (14), world (14), government (14), credit (14), some (13), since (13), why (13), crisis (13), way (13), them (13), analysis (13), inflation (13), corporate (13), hudson (13), fred (12), take (12), thoma (12), his (12), two (12), numbers (12), same (12), back (12), could (12), had (12), know (12), down (12), people (12), deposits (12), recession (12), zero (12), multiplier (12), increase (12), required (12), november (12), spending (12), private (12), def (12), graphs (11), economists (11), their (11), higher (11), because (11), evidence (11), decline (11), deficit (11), gdp (11), relative (11), loans (11), sector (11), cost (11), january (11), model (10), says (10), lines (10), writes (10), want (10), use (10), again (10), data (10), must (10), between (10), still (10), let (10), things (10), fiscal (10), gross (10), top (10), less (10), read (10), comment (10), ratio (10), per (10), second (10), spend (10), september (10), trends (10), october (10), december (10), yesterday (9), goes (9), doesn (9), never (9), system (9), something (9), domestic (9), last (9), far (9), also (9), bill (9), mitchell (9), should (9), pay (9), save (9), obama (9), february (9), march (9), april (9), july (9), august (9), any (8), right (8), both (8), actual (8), off (8), better (8), future (8), where (8), looking (8), even (8), its (8), always (8), who (8), average (8), banks (8), currency (8), end (8), actually (8), wrong (8), process (8), done (8), requirement (8), dollars (8), every (8), real (8), issue (8), those (8), rent (8), static (7), picture (7), put (7), good (7), saying (7), these (7), shows (7), different (7), most (7), little (7), maybe (7), budget (7), many (7), wealthy (7), among (7), changes (7), recent (7), blog (7), deposit (7), fractional (7), before (7), lend (7), supply (7), her (7), clinton (7), too (7), point (7), options (7), himself (7), 2009 (7), 1990 (7), came (6), conclusion (6), left (6), using (6), made (6), dynamic (6), relation (6), yet (6), problems (6), until (6), everything (6), paid (6), monetary (6), thinks (6), three (6), lower (6), big (6), cut (6), exactly (6), unemployment (6), low (6), very (6), reading (6), keynes (6), context (6), quote (6), did (6), 1974 (6), golden (6), age (6), few (6), difference (6), possible (6), faster (6), each (6), kept (6), another (6), customer (6), number (6), draw (6), work (6), your (6), key (6), looked (6), seems (6), while (6), debts (6), page (6), cause (6), role (6), longer (6), focus (6), marginal (6), perhaps (6), kelton (6), yellow (6), mosler (6), fed (5), posts (5), simple (5), interesting (5), ceiling (5), matter (5), past (5), myself (5), important (5), concept (5), yes (5), mean (5), reason (5), such (5), cannot (5), according (5), change (5), conclusions (5), day (5), term (5), effective (5), republicans (5), corporations (5), america (5), 2008 (5), argument (5), times (5), said (5), mid (5), 1980 (5), 2000 (5), grew (5), original (5), bad (5), joke (5), getting (5), going (5), try (5), completely (5), tell (5), showing (5), call (5), eight (5), didn (5), create (5), lends (5), adjusted (5), creation (5), cent (5), incomes (5), side (5), base (5), profits (5), fygfd (5), agree (5), overhead (5), place (5), stuff (5), michael (5), thought (5), without (5), paul (5), largely (5), includes (5), deficits (5), surprising (5), downtrend (5), louis (4), horse (4), hover (4), upon (4), seen (4), approach (4), rising (4), below (4), old (4), making (4), previous (4), mine (4), hit (4), series (4), means (4), today (4), rise (4), above (4), introduction (4), keep (4), thinking (4), reaching (4), importance (4), starting (4), including (4), bartlett (4), statutory (4), almost (4), vertical (4), 1947 (4), flat (4), troubles (4), gold (4), during (4), parallel (4), looks (4), changed (4), run (4), close (4), lot (4), piece (4), explanation (4), weeks (4), come (4), 100 (4), lending (4), small (4), gave (4), middle (4), equal (4), started (4), step (4), question (4), whether (4), occurred (4), five (4), depression (4), order (4), market (4), requirements (4), banking (4), 000 (4), persuading (4), thumbs (4), 2010 (4), based (4), accumulation (4), large (4), print (4), couldn (4), whole (4), sure (4), brought (4), being (4), relatively (4), savings (4), recovery (4), decade (4), option (4), investment (4), trillion (4), annual (4), twenty (4), sees (4), majority (4), either (4), part (4), style (4), wealth (4), green (4), period (4), 1986 (4), tom (4), profit (4), writing (3), steve (3), sets (3), wikipedia (3), via (3), dynamics (3), natural (3), against (3), compared (3), others (3), eventually (3), least (3), office (3), makes (3), simply (3), show (3), exists (3), talk (3), though (3), spreadsheet (3), row (3), remaining (3), doing (3), choose (3), size (3), follows (3), canadian (3), argued (3), ago (3), general (3), modern (3), added (3), neither (3), nor (3), sense (3), objective (3), understand (3), along (3), bring (3), mind (3), cube (3), broad (3), growing (3), accumulating (3), example (3), wednesday (3), bruce (3), white (3), house (3), treasury (3), congress (3), president (3), measure (3), revenues (3), needs (3), comparison (3), ways (3), richest (3), deductions (3), capital (3), plus (3), revenue (3), believe (3), anything (3), raise (3), stop (3), entirely (3), thursday (3), 1970 (3), rapidly (3), around (3), went (3), 1971 (3), beginning (3), runs (3), 1990s (3), balance (3), 2001 (3), shooting (3), slow (3), curve (3), 1970s (3), near (3), drops (3), happened (3), together (3), gets (3), loan (3), happen (3), bar (3), away (3), available (3), greater (3), suppose (3), square (3), shade (3), shaded (3), area (3), known (3), ten (3), okay (3), deposited (3), through (3), works (3), reader (3), add (3), over (3), great (3), ever (3), fall (3), enough (3), wants (3), later (3), borrow (3), guess (3), relevant (3), historical (3), fact (3), smaller (3), give (3), rest (3), reality (3), heading (3), solve (3), wanted (3), century (3), trying (3), double (3), information (3), full (3), meat (3), human (3), veins (3), crash (3), reduction (3), led (3), indeed (3), free (3), crashes (3), plaque (3), prices (3), gang8 (3), evaluated (3), third (3), blogger (3), effect (3), having (3), control (3), image (3), 2003 (3), nonfinancial (3), thus (3), john (3), healthy (3), 1991 (3), 2006 (3), health (3), restore (3), answer (3), evolution (3), rather (3), stimulus (3), gonna (3), evaluate (3), defines (3), pdf (3), summary (3), widely (3), best (3), words (3), solution (3), mess (3), remains (3), view (3), set (3), hampering (3), sales (3), job (3), careful (3), irrelevant (3), computer (3), smith (3), machine (3), screw (3), similarity (3), expectations (3), given (3), video (3), interrupt (3), bush (3), surprise (3), consumer (3), following (3), art (3), jim (3), clonal (3), undeserved (3), timeline (3), productivity (3), finance (3), 2016 (2), appear (2), org (2), newer (2), labels (2), craft (2), consumers (2), simplicity (2), flow (2), toss (2), air (2), masquerading (2), mark (2), calls (2), plucking (2), versions (2), fits (2), moving (2), essentially (2), title (2), return (2), normal (2), statement (2), predicting (2), record (2), apart (2), politics (2), certain (2), falls (2), straight (2), reasonable (2), rows (2), calculated (2), depends (2), bigger (2), isn (2), notice (2), taking (2), account (2), expect (2), default (2), worthwhile (2), doubt (2), kuznets (2), surprised (2), failure (2), models (2), particular (2), word (2), continuing (2), 2007 (2), stepping (2), stone (2), element (2), theory (2), emphasis (2), preface (2), perfectly (2), figure (2), discusses (2), figured (2), meant (2), zen (2), babu (2), presents (2), organize (2), tools (2), notion (2), became (2), remained (2), anybody (2), else (2), she (2), declining (2), capacity (2), utilization (2), perpetually (2), ignoring (2), macro (2), fate (2), wrote (2), running (2), historically (2), share (2), divided (2), 1950 (2), week (2), plan (2), principal (2), businesses (2), maintain (2), quite (2), largest (2), code (2), sources (2), explain (2), service (2), 1992 (2), 400 (2), truth (2), united (2), states (2), further (2), asserted (2), level (2), singin (2), tune (2), jazz (2), soon (2), ascribe (2), rule (2), assume (2), galbraith (2), homework (2), appears (2), downward (2), ended (2), stagflation (2), disarray (2), rises (2), turns (2), friday (2), fascinated (2), balancing (2), percentage (2), fell (2), billions (2), saturday (2), pretty (2), compare (2), impression (2), war (2), sunday (2), next (2), brings (2), jake (2), links (2), collapse (2), epic (2), sequence (2), 1000 (2), final (2), neglects (2), teacher (2), explaining (2), bit (2), cents (2), decimal (2), places (2), however (2), additional (2), fractions (2), amounts (2), paper (2), unshaded (2), portion (2), forever (2), approximate (2), limit (2), calculator (2), slightly (2), accurate (2), clear (2), glad (2), true (2), kinda (2), correct (2), history (2), circulating (2), watching (2), peak (2), deny (2), happens (2), need (2), constant (2), 1980s (2), shown (2), become (2), newly (2), assuming (2), funds (2), butter (2), hang (2), 810 (2), kim (2), dedicated (2), econompic (2), jobs (2), stupid (2), clarity (2), under (2), false (2), raising (2), solving (2), saving (2), help (2), monday (2), board (2), governors (2), owed (2), increases (2), current (2), repetition (2), several (2), list (2), tuesday (2), none (2), phrase (2), related (2), fires (2), severe (2), bankruptcies (2), edifice (2), care (2), wiped (2), books (2), saved (2), administration (2), wall (2), street (2), 19th (2), buildup (2), arteries (2), physical (2), value (2), upswing (2), costs (2), production (2), oak (2), thoughtful (2), chip (2), nifty (2), graphic (2), table (2), column (2), addition (2), present (2), sort (2), causal (2), fix (2), choice (2), instead (2), might (2), increased (2), stimulate (2), assets (2), implausible (2), pawlenty (2), nice (2), taylor (2), fairness (2), eye (2), beholder (2), 1951 (2), 1961 (2), 1981 (2), paradigms (2), ruin (2), hand (2), conservatives (2), reviews (2), woodford (2), worrying (2), persuasive (2), arguments (2), temporary (2), disagree (2), chance (2), directly (2), moreover (2), induced (2), massive (2), presumably (2), already (2), accompanied (2), played (2), preventing (2), handle (2), act (2), liquidity (2), chances (2), seem (2), medium (2), focusing (2), dream (2), leave (2), showed (2), consider (2), horses (2), own (2), short (2), forget (2), paragraphs (2), changing (2), behind (2), silver (2), lining (2), science (2), otherwise (2), mmt (2), nation (2), follow (2), adam (2), skinner (2), systems (2), connect (2), movements (2), nations (2), pce (2), cpi (2), fault (2), trade (2), ball (2), twine (2), prefer (2), ideas (2), tongue (2), daniel (2), critics (2), blame (2), host (2), chart (2), policies (2), took (2), variable (2), 700k (2), bearwatch (2), gedankenexperiment (2), stability (2), instability (2), 1989 (2), factor (2), found (2), deduction (2), markup (2), corresponds (2), card (2), deductible (2), breakout (2), class (2), report (2), item (2), fewer (2), hickey (2), 24th (2), baird (2), antibody (2), unearned (2), someone (2), price (2), unspent (2), backed (2), treasuries (2), backing (2), bankrupt (2), likely (2), deflation (2), 2018 (2), sumner (2), household (2), loops (2), laffer (2), jerry (2), civilization (2), push (2), 2013 (2), dave (2), ross (2), google (2), translate (2), html (2), economist (2), charts (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, courtesy, http, research, stlouisfed, fred2, lead, water, him, drink, stay, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, home, older, finished, imagines, producers, motion, eliminates, sake, diagram, uptrend, moment, stops, starts, falling, ground, admitted, represents, represent, slash, repeated, overlay, mouse, identical, reference, benchmark, whichever, predictions, opening, pushback, displayed, 1870, pretend, forecasting, staff, sitting, harvard, cea, conceptual, performance, equally, throw, imagine, label, columns, categories, aggregate, plug, couple, perpetual, extending, conditions, emerge, asteroid, unless, destroys, emerging, outcomes, tomorrow, wisely, downturn, due, pluck, predictive, upturn, slope, correlation, ikedim, observe, potential, output, oriented, attempts, build, multisectoral, statics, fetish, abandoned, games, moniker, stochastic, describe, bastardized, ramsay, solow, dominate, disaster, followers, direct, converted, latter, body, cardinally, rebuilt, discussed, efficiently, 1930, 422, 428, 435, 436, scheme, entirety, essence, basis, towards, proper, discussion, helps, happy, postpone, waiting, balances, across, arranged, collection, theories, remarkable, effort, considered, suddenly, elevated, undefined, write, especially, smooth, sailing, steady, imbalances, predict, axes, former, adviser, department, apparently, guy, starve, beast, highlighting, broadest, product, congressional, estimated, consume, listens, burden, constraint, holding, released, provision, individuals, global, competitors, able, excessively, concentrating, solely, often, manipulated, note, applies, earned, substantially, taxpayers, exclusions, credits, dividends, gains, adjustments, permitted, alternative, internal, reducing, blown, proportion, offered, republican, cutting, self, evident, lowest, york, philipji, com, philip, thanks, quick, impressions, maynard, popped, head, consist, provide, shall, extensive, treatise, consists, ricardo, excoriates, james, 11th, gray, stripes, recessions, lasted, 1973, sweeping, 1960s, becoming, occur, keynesian, ronald, reagan, crossing, quickly, undiscovered, country, 1995, subtract, sniff, points, meaning, course, apparent, closeness, understanding, reviewing, month, debtwatch, myth, chunk, irritating, lendings, generating, 8900, 10000, eternity, relendings, thousand, orange, subsequent, lent, becomes, loaned, reminds, chemistry, told, wasn, approaching, 116, rounds, 250, pennies, richard, prior, paycheck, superman, movie, approaches, reaches, maximum, shading, undone, determined, logic, textbooks, written, divide, tells, error, billy, similar, steps, observes, inadequate, wordy, depiction, operate, characterised, fiat, flexible, exchange, guys, type, nothing, determining, raised, smoke, screen, distract, confuse, hear, aside, hypotheses, arise, references, study, opposite, creates, except, therefore, thrilled, idea, rose, ensued, 1933, significant, policymakers, 1930s, harder, tie, loose, anyway, normally, rejection, stronger, picked, 200, figures, 1200, tenth, hopefully, possibly, fathom, hey, statistics, exceed, representing, initial, case, sequences, resolve, iterations, succesive, formula, determination, multiplied, rrr, alleged, explained, hold, person, recipient, keeping, dissolve, pound, eat, hunger, macroeconomics, textbook, retain, fraction, sue, printed, notes, obliged, allowed, 900, bills, keeps, 729, kevin, iterative, consisting, injection, conventional, analysing, cavaliers, employee, killed, dealmaking, creativity, devoted, expanding, loads, stagnant, hesitate, deceiving, hiding, intent, arisen, arose, drove, fine, lowering, simplifying, accountants, broadening, competitive, loopholes, unfair, disparities, contribute, meet, shared, challenges, responsibilities, lists, clock, relentlessly, overnight, ends, wonder, match, checking, morning, noticed, items, listed, paragraph, highlight, parts, worked, independently, absolutely, shabby, highlighted, histories, bits, regarding, recover, offering, oddball, notions, methods, practical, nah, excerpts, agenda, driven, boring, prevention, forest, frequent, whaddya, chain, reaction, blink, twice, ruins, prevented, dark, ages, unique, aftermath, usual, lenders, speculators, loss, intervening, bonds, managers, emerged, downturns, 1945, taken, understood, hundred, phenomenon, wiping, sheet, property, intact, although, transferred, debtors, creditors, positive, claims, replaced, equity, ownership, housing, affordable, rental, goods, services, incorporate, charges, built, minimized, bringing, clearing, circulatory, freed, resume, gained, momentum, exponentially, crashed, recommended, sackerson, state, fight, survival, truthout, shirley, theme, shouldn, missed, liked, suggested, unwise, improved, ridiculous, econospeak, exl, evolved, grow, bloom, flawed, premise, contradict, horizontal, roll, flutter, avoid, tied, buy, hair, tail, wagged, dog, worth, unfortunately, holdings, liquid, favor, politically, acceptible, claim, accompanying, article, americans, gates, pink, polo, shirt, interactive, instituting, afterthought, proposition, postwar, standards, 1940, citizens, triple, nill, thoughts, mike, bound, describes, funny, spends, prob, austerian, strengthen, position, embedding, include, introduces, offers, heh, commitment, ahead, unwilling, unable, arguing, solutions, quantity, method, indirect, affects, crucial, sez, reduces, specifically, furthermore, outcome, renewed, doubtless, begin, destroy, destroying, unresolved, succeed, practice, constantly, encounter, moderns, sharply, stage, overhang, continues, drag, informal, deleveraging, trap, fair, playing, stars, possibility, expecting, shaped, persuade, commit, permanent, target, convince, markets, seemed, turned, hope, bother, understate, overstate, ing, stephanie, skip, donut, find, asks, formulas, wondering, mostly, algebra, considers, goal, evidently, bottom, remain, employment, zeroes, bold, washington, concerned, pointing, agreement, independent, stopped, strong, hoping, drawn, depending, sympathy, stands, irrelevancies, accept, fluff, filler, complete, diet, donuts, imagery, purpose, dispute, treat, regardless, demonstrate, bailout, central, explains, public, obligations, electronically, keyboards, social, security, medicare, shortfall, inability, american, rebuild, infrastructure, penguin, classics, abridgement, andrew, comparable, complex, friend, haywire, bunch, settings, once, worse, methodical, remember, lessons, teaches, messing, carelessly, liable, respects, resemble, machines, perform, efforts, artist, occasion, imaginary, invented, fancy, effects, performed, beckworth, lots, retirement, blues, musings, brief, excel, downhill, 60s, spirits, cheer, wait, boost, preference, widespread, constraints, players, advantage, china, company, parent, entertainment, bludgeoned, forked, sentence, observation, sounds, arrive, supposing, altogether, deal, theoretically, misguided, sometimes, listening, radio, program, tripled, assertion, understandable, jumped, 450, billion, illustrates, explosion, detail, assumption, blamed, casual, observer, untrue, began, nearly, four, months, entire, lambasting, productive, attack, puts, merely, symptom, underlying, disease, cato, liberty, 245k, 945k, 700, 945, check, classes, tcmdo, variety, eyeballed, colors, indicate, shape, significance, caught, everyone, passed, unnoticed, eyeballing, misreading, easy, leg, hard, reasons, toward, obvious, advice, phasing, attractive, repeating, pattern, facts, appropriate, huh, remarks, expense, eliminated, gradually, gives, hint, memory, dip, early, occurs, plain, caused, reform, personal, fallen, returns, car, boat, phased, los, angeles, select, totals, breakouts, heck, slowing, visible, business, decreasing, estate, commercial, industrial, date, rcfd2170, finds, quotes, response, drew, forth, warren, responds, move, topics, commenting, biggest, stretch, equipment, marxist, problematic, distinction, wages, derivative, source, elaborated, counterpart, hence, serviced, limited, nominal, proviso, spent, shareholders, interests, recirculated, afflicted, exponential, canard, circular, nature, payments, inevitable, govt, issued, excess, rules, haven, cover, leads, effectively, continuously, continue, serious, issues, scenario, lifestyle, degree, supporting, increasing, contract, enormous, implosion, moral, hazard, betting, path, prosperity, exports, workers, working, resources, indirectly, insidious, game, paying, appetite, copyright, arthur, shipman, zoho, withering, shoots, waste, fraud, abuse, verdoorn, urgency, unsustainable, umic, ulc, tot, cheek, tint, knob, shift, transaction, symmetry, deception, star, trek, standard
Text of the page (random words):
1200 of debt per dollar of required reserves that s less than one tenth of one percent in reserve hopefully i m looking at the wrong data posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday june 19 2011 the world in red and blue 3 my graph 3 from yesterday graph 1 domestic financial gross federal debt billions red is federal blue is financial looks like the red and blue lines run really close together for a really long time well they could be pretty far apart and still look close because the recent numbers are so very very big so i want to compare the red and blue lines with a ratio graph 2 federal debt per dollar of financial debt graph 3 financial debt per dollar of federal debt oh just so you don t get the wrong impression the red line on graph 4 below is the same as the blue line on graph 3 above after world war ii there was a lot more government debt but not any more posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday june 18 2011 the world in red and blue 2 my graph from yesterday graph 1 domestic financial gross federal debt relative to gdp red is federal blue is financial i am fascinated by the parallel of the red and blue lines between 1980 and 1995 or so i want to look at the difference between the red and blue lines if i take the graph above take the red line and subtract the blue line from it it looks like the graph below graph 2 gross federal less domestic financial debt relative to gdp well look at that the golden age curve is now a golden age straight line decline from 1950 all the way to the 1974 recession then there is a possible sniff of decline from 1974 to 1980 but the line is really very flat from the mid 1970s to the mid 1990s that is the time of parallel and near parallel red and blue lines on graph 1 then beginning in the mid 1990s with the balancing of the federal budget our trend line drops to zero and drops rapidly to near 50 percentage points below zero meaning that the gross federal debt fell to about half the level of domestic financial debt or to put it more in the context of what actually happened domestic financial debt grew far far faster than the gross federal debt graph 3 domestic financial gross federal debt billions red is federal blue is financial until the crisis of course the crisis changed everything but now i m fascinated by the apparent long running closeness of the red and blue lines posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday june 17 2011 the world in red and blue this is the last graph from my homework post of the 11th domestic financial debt compared to the gross federal debt graph 3 the blue line on graph 3 is financial debt as a percent of gdp the red line is the gross federal debt as a percent of gdp the vertical gray stripes are recessions the graph shows a recession at 1970 and then one at 1974 among others economists say there was a golden age for our economy that lasted from 1947 to 1973 that golden age appears on this graph in the red line starting at the left sweeping downward rapidly then less rapidly then less again until the 1974 recession when the line goes flat and that is when the golden age ended there were some troubles in the economy around 1970 there was stagflation and we went off gold in 1971 and since the mid 1960s inflation was becoming a problem these troubles occur during the slow decline of the red line then with the 1974 recession the red line goes flat it is the end of the golden age the end of keynesian economics and the beginning of a time of disarray with ronald reagan in 1980 everything changes the red line rises and runs parallel to the blue line for 15 years and then in the 1990s we balance the federal budget the red line turns downward crossing the blue after 2000 or 2001 the budget goes into deficit again and the red line rises not much for a few years but then more quickly at the end and at the end we see the red line shooting up and the blue line shooting down that shooting is the crisis at right after the red and blue lines stop the white is the undiscovered country posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday june 16 2011 i can t comment there so i ll post here at philipji com the top post today is james k galbraith has not read keynes philip is new to me thanks jazz and i m just reading quick to get some impressions but i had to stop when i read this keynes did not ascribe any importance to banks in his model money consists entirely of currency exactly as in the ricardo that galbraith excoriates soon as i read that something maynard said popped into my head as a rule i shall as in my treatise on money assume that money is co extensive with bank deposits so keynes does ascribe importance to banks i think money does not consist entirely of currency for keynes but of bank deposits for the context of the keynes quote i provide see my may day post posted by the arthurian at 8 05 pm 4 comments singin a different tune bruce bartlett former economic adviser in the white house the treasury department and congress apparently the same guy who wrote starve the beast writes in the new york times may 31 2011 6 00 am are taxes in the u s high or low by bruce bartlett historically the term tax rate has meant the average or effective tax rate that is taxes as a share of income the broadest measure of the tax rate is total federal revenues divided by the gross domestic product by this measure federal taxes are at their lowest level in more than 60 years the congressional budget office estimated that federal taxes would consume just 14 8 percent of g d p this year the last year in which revenues were lower was 1950 yet if one listens to republicans one would think that taxes have never been higher that an excessive tax burden is the most important constraint holding back economic growth and that a big tax cut is exactly what the economy needs to get growing again just last week house republicans released a new plan to reduce unemployment its principal provision would reduce the top statutory income tax rate on businesses and individuals to 25 percent from 35 percent no evidence was offered for the republican argument that cutting taxes for the well to do and big corporations would reduce unemployment it was simply asserted as self evident if taxes are low historically and in comparison with our global competitors how are republicans able to maintain that taxes are excessively high they do so by ignoring the effective tax rate and concentrating solely on the statutory tax rate which is often manipulated to make it appear that rates are much higher than they really are the economic importance of statutory tax rates is blown far out of proportion by republicans looking for ways to make taxes look high when they are quite low and they almost never note that the statutory tax rate applies only to the last dollar earned or that the effective tax rate is substantially lower even for the richest taxpayers and largest corporations because of tax exclusions deductions credits and the 15 percent top rate on dividends and capital gains the many adjustments to income permitted by the tax code plus alternative tax rates on the largest sources of income of the wealthy explain why the average federal income tax rate on the 400 richest people in america was 18 11 percent in 2008 according to the internal revenue service down from 26 38 percent when these data were first calculated in 1992 among the top 400 7 5 percent had an average tax rate of less than 10 percent 25 percent paid between 10 and 15 percent and 28 percent paid between 15 and 20 percent the truth of the matter is that federal taxes in the united states are very low there is no reason to believe that reducing them further will do anything to raise growth or reduce unemployment highlighting added well ya never know maybe he s running for president posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments wednesday june 15 2011 no fate but what we make let me preface this by saying that the way i do economics is to just keep thinking about things until they make sense to me it helps that i am perfectly happy to postpone reaching conclusions i figure the conclusions are there waiting for me my objective is to understand little things along the way the reason i bring this up is that this post discusses equilibrium in economics i always just figured equilibrium meant something like everything balances out and i paid it no mind then one day i came across zen babu s macro cube the post presents a cube upon which are arranged a broad collection of economic theories in a remarkable effort to organize them the three axes of zen babu s cube are monetary policy fiscal policy and equilibrium analysis now for years i have considered that monetary and fiscal are the two tools of economic policy suddenly the notion of equilibrium became elevated in importance in my mind yet it remained essentially undefined so i have had equilibrium in the back of my mind for the past year and a half or so and now with this post and the previous two the term is starting to make sense to me and that s why i have to write this preface what i think equilibrium is may not be what anybody else thinks it is including or especially economists but i have to say it so that i know what i m starting to think i m thinking equilibrium is smooth sailing steady as she goes in equilibrium if the economy s not growing it s static if growing there are no imbalances no inflation no declining capacity utilization and no perpetually accumulating debt for example equilibrium is the trend economists use to predict the future they use it ignoring inflation declining capacity utilization and perpetually accumulating debt after i finished writing yesterday s post i came upon this from the conclusion of a steve keen post i doubt that kuznets would have been surprised by the failure of equilibrium oriented attempts to build dynamic multisectoral models of economic growth since he argued long ago that dynamics had to be different to statics and in particular that the fetish with equilibrium had to be abandoned according to the economists of the past and to most of their modern followers static economics is a direct stepping stone to the dynamic system and may be converted into the latter by the introduction of the general element of change according to other economists the body of economic theory must be cardinally rebuilt if dynamic problems are to be discussed efficiently the static scheme in its entirety in the essence of its approach is neither a basis nor a stepping stone towards a proper discussion of dynamic problems kuznets s 1930 pp 422 428 435 436 emphasis added yet the static approach masquerading as dynamics via word games such as using the moniker dynamic stochastic general equilibrium to describe bastardized ramsay solow equilibrium growth models still dominate economics even after the continuing disaster of the crisis of 2007 a static economy may be seen in any simple picture of the economy that imagines producers and consumers and sets the thing in motion but eliminates growth for the sake of simplicity as in this flow diagram from wikipedia via worthwhile canadian if you take that picture and toss it into the air you have the static approach masquerading as dynamics as keen put it as the picture goes up into the air the uptrend of it is growth not a good economic model you re saying that s not the half of it after a moment the picture stops rising and starts falling to the ground these graphs which yesterday i admitted were interesting are from mark thoma on the left is what thoma calls the natural rate model and on the right the plucking model the blue line on both graphs represents the ceiling trend thoma says in his post the red lines represent two versions of how we think actual growth fits the ceiling slash trend why and how actual growth can rise above the ceiling i cannot say but i observe that the same relation exists between actual and potential output thoma s graphs are repeated below as an overlay using the ikedim hover default graph plucking hover graph natural rate by moving the mouse on and off this graph you can see that the blue line or ceiling trend is essentially identical in the two graphs the blue line is a reference line or benchmark against which actual growth may be compared as thoma writes notice that the size of the downturn from the ceiling from a b due to the pluck is predictive of the size of the upturn from b c that follows taking account of the slope of the trend in a natural rate model there is no reason to expect such a correlation isn t it interesting the thing is thoma and others want to use the blue line and whichever red line they like better to make predictions about future economic growth again the title of thoma s post is will the economy return to the old normal and his opening statement is there s been some pushback against the statement i made that the economy would eventually return to the trend rate of growth it has displayed since at least 1870 and thoma says i don t pretend to have as good a forecasting staff sitting in my harvard office as the cea has it s all about predicting the future that s what makes it interesting doesn t matter thoma s blue line there if it is more that simply conceptual is a record of past performance it shows the past it does not show the future but economists like to think of that blue line as an equilibrium trend that exists apart from policy and politics like thoma economists want to put it into graphs and use it to talk about the future as though the future and the past are equally certain if you throw the static picture up it goes up then it falls there is no straight line trend but thoma s blue line never falls when i imagine making a model of the economy i see myself using a spreadsheet i label my columns for my important categories of aggregate numbers and i plug some reasonable numbers into the first row or two of data then for the remaining rows the numbers have to be calculated from the numbers on the previous row or couple of rows and from other numbers on the same row that s it where we are now depends on where we were yesterday and on what we re doing now there is no trend there is no perpetual equilibrium extending into the future i think my concept of a model of a dynamic economy is more like keen s than thoma s in mine there is no trend the new conditions simply emerge and yes looking back on it as long as we re not hit by an asteroid and unless policy destroys it the emerging series of outcomes could look like a trend but that does not mean that tomorrow will be bigger and better than yesterday it only means we must choose wisely today posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels hover craft newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of fed...
|
