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mediocre, trombonist, excellent, grandfather, reasonably, decent, husband, concerned, citizen, leaning, pseudo, analytical, thinker, versifier, parodist, snarkmeister, philologist, grey, haired, cook, congenital, ass, lakes, basin, mike, kimel, check, cite, authority, proof, reputable, assertion, examples, want, seriously, rules, engagement, handed, stays, light, meant, directions, www, kitco, adviser, registered, guy, playing, ideas, telling, anybody, penny, speculating, fun, topic, label, column, welcome, readers, subscribe, atom, older, seeing, motion, 0ff, 15723, 15694, 36386, 36304, spend, 36485, surrounded, ends, 4787, vertically, 245, 644, 338, 2249, 2272, 2265, 15759, 15855, nutil, 15868, 15729, 36522, 36679, 191, 36500, wound, 36372, missed, 4794, 4809, drifted, 248, 741, 778, pushing, validate, 2237, 2253, snaked, staying, 2243, 15795, 15680, 102, 15792, 36421, 36396, 46572, 4789, 4793, 4804, 249, 488, 2261, 2275, struggled, 2257, 15895, 15901, bumpy, 15757, 114, path, 36302, 36527, 225, 36344, does, impede, 4795, looking, 4780, wandered, 781, nice, santa, clause, 2242, 2230, 2255, 2250, 155844, 15825, 400, 15697, 15763, 35954, 36077, 36187, 36265, 36200, approaching, 4677, maintain, phase, ahead, immediate, 4750, 4784, 261, 871, 217, 302, 351, 791, bleeding, stop, slowed, substantially, hopeful, brings, minimum, spiked, 4617, breach, 206, 080, 236, 170, 696, futures, est, carry, refuted, closer, significantly, rare, 522, 407, 392, 700, strangely, disconnected, general, consistent, idea, experiencing, ongoing, thrust, 2288, dead, 15852, 15538, 15607, 15512, 320, 132, 36636, 36935, 350, 36740, 155, 36890, 255, 215, obviously, moment, hung, 4805, 4819, 268, 622, 799, 214, considered, ambiguous, 2284, 2260, naqsdaq, 15733, 15785, stepped, 15820, 15832, remans, ponits, 36322, 36246, 36495, 4758, 4786, 272, 832, 187, 585, 796, weekly, contours, magnitudes, unity, guess, backwards, 2158, 2156, 2126, steadily, 14708, 14888, 14689, 14898, 35935, 35996, 35641, 472, added, tracing, diagonal, correct, 4636, 4615, 4665, 893, 911, 662, 2177, 2197, highest, peaks, roller, coaster, occurred, sits, 15245, 15260, 14782, unusually, 36312, 36514, 224, 36044, 4744, 5650, 159, 806, 381, 113, 659, extents, outlier, represents, 2195, 2210, 2169, 15263, 15319, 15117, 36336, 36453, 36168, 4729, 4749, 4707, 4720, concluded, 188, 290, 726, hang, hats, thrilling, motions, volatility, any, 2171, 2155, 2193, 1419, 14838, 105, 36059, 35769, 299, 36271, 2669, 4638, 153, 252, 713, paths, recoveries, thing, wait, 2133, 14752, 184, 14530, encouraging, ticks, surges, 36175, 35640, 592, 4582, 171, 942, 068, 670, opinion, proven, otherwise, position, justify, negate, peeked, hold, proving, formidable, 4023, downside, possibility, expect, certainly, zig, zag, 4200, 4176, falls, coincidence, climbs, confidence, 4430, 4650, 4119, 382, picture, clarify, deeper, completing, possibilities, connected, curve, contribute, 4129, retracements, resulting, 3994, respectively, terminated, confirm, notion, requite, identifying, 308, 3945, sub, pattern, 3790, ight, lagging, pundits, expecting, ffr, follows, likes, federal, funds, schmed, continues, 3200, bright, glimmer, 3873, increasingly, wobbly, bull, resistence, surprised, astounded, 3837, 3850, positives, anticipated, already, baked, reaction, matters, meeting, policy, surprising, pointed, turned, 500, 3899, https, twitter, jaguaranalytics, 1695109989663219925, interesting, insight, edit, ball, stall, pause, consolidate, solvent, comparison, alphabet, goog, apple, appl, microsoft, msft, revert, instance, 125, turns, falter, tulip, bulb, crash, brutal, ones, faltered, quicker, 116, confirmed, cluster, 220, kept, climbing, leap, carried, slanting, exuberance, dramatically, 336, staggering, suggesting, stronger, suggestion, crossed, descending, violet, away, along, unpleasant, fact, ratio, scoff, sustainable, lack, report, sign, wonder, buyers, 474, intraday, 502, 471, guidance, 101, quarter, impressive, test, unsustainable, underestimate, irrationality, peaked, owned, wouldn, hurry, sell, watching, carefully, signs, inevitable, collapse, distressingly, advancing, consider, lock, hefty, profit, drops, keeps, heading, dump, advance, emphasizes, unsustainability, wrote, nose, buying, opportunity, agile, trader, stomach, marginal, 496, wobbled, nowhere, 490, actually, doldrums, pays, dividend, revisited, dot, indicates, erratically, leading, course, nothing, certain, dime, plunge, admittedly, simple, minded, sequence, coupled, putting, help, identify, slipping, leveling, maintained, slopes, throughout, tepid, alive, slide, steep, ranges, sounds, fundamental, basis, determined, emotions, fundamentals, movements, reveal, emotional, stream, confirms, recommendation, isaac, groot, offers, give, humanoid, robot, blackwell, ultra, chip, drive, demand, mega, cap, firms, underperformance, anticipating, developments, expansion, robotics, diversify, reducing, semiconductor, cyclicality, danil, sereda, investing, criteria, paraphrased, partly, pay, perspective, 1200, 120, 135, 148, said, bottomed, launching, pad, soaring, flight, visuals, cool, regards, bewilder, disoriented, court, legend, robert, 1943, 1993, won, grand, slam, selected, davis, cup, ever, win, wimbledon, australian, stable, staple, grass, clover, alfalfa, dried, stored, fodder, animal, livestock, cattle, horses, sheep, nibble, bedding, smaller, pets, rabbits, guinea, pigs, oat, helpful, summer, refresher, suffix, lemonede, sofi, stadium, nfl, compete, member, conference, division, wraps, impression, ram, ade, addle, reel, dance, party, disc, jockey, spinning, medium, electromagnetic, transmit, air, connecting, wires, refer, underlying, communication, broadcasting, industry, electronic, guglielmo, giovanni, maria, 1874, 1st, marquess, italian, frequency, inventor, politician, creation
Text of the page (random words):
ter henry ford s son edsel ford it is infamous for being a massive corporate failure and a textbook case of ill timed marketing and product design but all these years later it is a valued collector s item 53 highland dances reels they re reel good 54 bewilder addle to make someone feel confused disoriented or unable to think clearly 57 court legend arthur ashe arthur robert ashe jr 1943 1993 was an american professional tennis player he won three grand slam titles in singles and two in doubles ashe was the first black player selected to the united states davis cup team and the only black man ever to win the singles titles at wimbledon the us open and the australian open 59 stable staple hay hay typically refers to grass clover or alfalfa that has been cut and dried it is primarily used as stored fodder animal food for livestock like cattle horses and sheep or as nibble and bedding for smaller pets like rabbits and guinea pigs i had oat that was not helpful 60 summer refresher suffix ade as in frex lemonede 61 sofi stadium nfl player ram the los angeles rams are a professional american football team based in the greater los angeles area the rams compete in the national football league as a member of the national football conference west division this wraps up today s puzzle i hope it made a good impression cool regards jzb posted by jazzbumpa at 1 30 am no comments labels puzzles sunday march 23 2025 another look a nvda i ve looked at nvda a couple times in august 2023 and january 2024 on saturday 8 26 23 i said the action in nvda stock looked like it was topping it had closed the day before at 460 18 it topped out at 493 55 on 8 31 then fell less than a month later on 9 21 23 it bottomed out at 410 17 a loss of 16 89 from there it bounced up to close at 469 45 on 10 12 23 still 4 88 under the 8 31 hi it quickly dropped again to 405 00 on 10 17 23 17 94 under the 8 31 hi but that became the launching pad for a soaring flight to record new highs for visuals see the graphs at the earlier posts so i was kind of right in the very short term but very wrong from a longer perspective the price reached over 1200 before the 10 for 1 split on june 7 2024 closing post split on that date at 120 89 it then chopped around between about 100 and 135 until 10 14 24 it climbed to a new high at 148 88 on 11 07 24 and has not yet reached that level again it closed at 117 70 on friday 3 21 25 a march 19 th article by danil sereda who leads beyond the wall investing rates nvda a buy based on the following criteria paraphrased from the article which is partly behind a pay wall expansion into ai robotics will diversify the business reducing semiconductor cyclicality recent market underperformance make it a buy anticipating new developments in other words buy the dip the new blackwell ultra chip is expected to drive demand from mega cap tech firms the open source isaac groot model offers to give them a substantial share of the growing humanoid robot market opening a new revenue stream expected that is expected soon confirms the buy recommendation this all sounds good on a fundamental basis but i believe that stock prices are determined by market emotions not fundamentals and that price movements reveal the current emotional climate let s have a look graph 1 shows closing prices since the beginning of 2024 graph 1 the large purple dot indicates the split date and previous values are back calculated the data is from yahoo finance you can see the prices have been erratically falling since november periods like this are not unusual in nvda s history typically leading to new highs graph 2 shows the slide from september to november 2023 prior to the steep rise in the first half of 2024 using exponential moving averages emas based on 5 to 233 day ranges graph 2 note that the emas at 89 day dark red and longer maintained positive slopes throughout this period the shorter period lines show that momentum was tepid but the longer period lines show that it was still alive now let s look at the current emas graph 3 shows all emas through 144 day blue slipping down and even leveling off at 233 days dark green graph 3 of course nothing in the real world is certain things can turn on a dime but momentum in nvda price movement has at best stalled and might be ready to plunge this analysis is admittedly simple minded but i believe the sequence of lower highs and lower lows in the 5 day ema line thin blue coupled with the faltering momentum signals that putting money into nvda stock now would be at greater than normal risk a much lower risk time to buy will probably come in a few weeks or months and a similar analysis can help to identify that time disclaimer i am not a financial or investment advisor i do these mental speculations for my own amusement and edification make your own decisions and chose wisely which is pretty damned difficult graphs are from my own files posted by jazzbumpa at 7 12 pm no comments sunday january 7 2024 nvidia revisited on august 26 2023 5 days before it a new closing hi at 493 55 i wrote a critical post about nvda the stock not the company after that the stock took a nose dive falling 16 9 to 410 17 on 9 26 23 that would have been a good buying opportunity of you were an agile trader or had a strong stomach after rising to 469 on 10 12 23 it fell to a new lo at 405 on 10 27 23 but it bounced quickly reaching a marginal new high at 496 56 on 11 14 23 in the 2 months since it s wobbled a bit going nowhere to close at 490 97 on 1 05 24 actually the stock has been in the doldrums for 4 1 2 months and pays no dividend see graph 1 graph 1 per yahoo finance the current p e is a wildly unsustainable 64 94 but never underestimate the irrationality of the market over a 24 month span the stock is up 80 while the nasdaq is off almost 3 this i believe emphasizes the unsustainability of the stock price see graph 2 graph 2 source yahoo finance the difficulty in this kind of a situation is that the stock might have peaked or it might just be building a base for a new advance if i owned this stock i do not i wouldn t be in a big hurry to sell it all but i would be watching carefully for the signs of a likely possibly even inevitable collapse it s happened before in 2022 it dropped 66 since august of 2023 it s been distressingly volatile while not advancing so i might consider selling some to lock in a hefty profit but if the 5 day ema drops below 162 and keeps heading down i d dump it see graph 3 graph 3 disclaimer i am not a financial or investment advisor i do these mental speculations for my own amusement and edification make your own decisions and chose wisely which is pretty damned difficult note graphs 1 and 3 are from my files posted by jazzbumpa at 3 01 pm no comments thursday october 19 2023 test post posted by jazzbumpa at 4 26 pm no comments saturday august 26 2023 some thought on nvidia this week nvda wildly exceeded revenue guidance posting 13 5 billion vs the expected 11 billion an increase of 101 over the same quarter last year impressive no on thursday the stock hit a new intraday hi of 502 66 just after the opening but then fell the rest of the day losing 31 points and closing at 471 63 a fraction above the day s lo graph 1 from yahoo finance graph 1 nvda 8 23 to 8 25 the most recent new closing high was 474 94 on 7 18 more than a month ago here s a hard and unpleasant fact even with this earnings blow out the p e ratio is 110 89 will you scoff at me if i suggest that this is not sustainable and the lack of a new closing high after this earnings report is not a good sign further friday s close was off 11 45 points or 2 43 i wonder at this level are there many buyers left let s take a look from a longer view graph 2 shows daily closings from the middle of last year along with trend lines and exponential moving averages data source yahoo finance graph 2 nvda closings from mid 2022 like just about everything else nvda dropped dramatically through the first 9 months of 2022 from the hi of 336 71 on 11 29 21 it slumped to a low of 112 27 on 10 14 22 a staggering loss of 66 36 then at the end of the year there was a higher lo suggesting that the drop might be complete this became an even stronger suggestion when the price crossed over the descending trend line in violet a few weeks later from there it was up up and away until the recent all time highs on 5 24 23 the stock rose 24 4 in a single day and kept climbing for almost 2 more months this leap carried the price far above the green up slanting trend line and this is what irrational exuberance looks like graph 3 is a look at exponential moving averages of daily closings from 5 day to 233 day periods graph 3 exponential moving averages the thin blue line is the 5 day ema it is more volatile and quicker moving than the longer emas after its low of 116 83 on 10 14 22 the next intermediate low was 145 29 on 1 04 23 this also suggests that the bottom was in this was confirmed by the cluster of long ema lines in early february from feb 1 to 21 the stock bounced around in the 210 to 220 range while all the ema s continued rising all the long emas 55 to 233 day continued rising right through 8 25 23 but the shorter ones have faltered the 5 ema line hit 462 9 on 7 19 then topped at 463 on 8 01 indicated on graph 3 with the red horizontal line it got close again on 8 24 and 8 25 but stalled under 462 this looks to me like topping action if 463 turns out to be a hard resistance line then nvda is going to falter right now it s hovering in tulip bulb territory and a crash could be brutal if the p e were to revert to a much more reasonable level of 30 for instance the price would have to drop to about 125 for a loss of 73 percent from the 8 25 close of 460 18 for comparison alphabet goog has a p e of 27 57 apple appl is at 29 92 and microsoft msft is at 32 46 there s a lot of if here and i don t have a crystal ball the recent stall might be a pause to consolidate before the stock price doubles again the market can stay irrational longer than most of us can stay solvent nvda ia a great company but at these prices i don t think it s a great stock edit here is an interesting insight for what its worth source https twitter com jaguaranalytics status 1695109989663219925 posted by jazzbumpa at 8 38 am no comments monday september 19 2022 taking stock sept 20 2022 the indexes stayed close to the neutral point for most of the day then turned up before 3 00 the sp 500 finished at 3899 99 less than a point below the late day hi for a gain of 26 66 0 69 this week the fed will have a two day meeting to set policy another rate increase of 0 75 or more is expected this is not surprising since as i pointed out on sept 1 the fed is far behind the market set 3 month t bill rate link below there is no surprise here so it could be that the anticipated increase is already baked into the market s reaction if that even matters meanwhile the index is hovering near the last reasonable retracement level from the 8 16 hi coincidentally located in the midst of a broad support resistance range between 3700 and 3900 for what it s worth the day s hi and lo were both marginally above those of friday s session you find whatever positives you can link posted by jazzbumpa at 4 51 pm 1 comment saturday september 17 2022 taking stock after 4 up days ending in a gain of 5 15 i was not surprised to see a pull back in the sp500 on tuesday but i was astounded by the magnitude and then the follow through at friday s lo 3837 08 the index was almost 14 points 0 36 under 3850 76 this is the 786 retracement level from the 8 16 hi the last reasonable level to support the current increasingly wobbly bull case it s also in the midst of a support resistence range between 3700 and 3900 dating back to june the only slightly bright glimmer i can find is that after hitting the day s lo shortly after noon the index rose 36 25 points 0 94 into the close at 3873 33 most of this rise happened after 2 30 p m if the index continues falling next week then the 6 17 lo is at risk then if that is breached the index could reach as lo as 3200 posted by jazzbumpa at 2 16 pm no comments thursday september 1 2022 fed schmed it seems the fed likes to keep the federal funds rate slightly above the 3 month t bill rate but the ffr almost always follows the t bill rate and almost never leads r ight now it is lagging and that might be why pundits are expecting another 75 increase in september posted by jazzbumpa at 1 05 pm 1 comment wednesday august 24 2022 taking stock tuesday august 23 2022 with updates let s assume that the 6 16 lo in the sp500 index at 3636 87 was the end of a corrective wave from the 1 03 all time high and that the action since is the beginning of the next impulse wave up to new higher highs to confirm this notion will requite identifying a five wave form up from the 6 16 lo if so then wave 1 up was a gain of 308 99 points to a local hi at 3945 86 on 6 28 wave 2 down followed the typical 3 sub wave down up down pattern to a local lo at 3790 38 on 7 14 a retracement of 50 8 then wave three up terminated at the local hi at 4325 28 on 8 16 and the index is now in wave 4 down retracements are frequently at or near 38 2 50 or 61 8 of the previous move the resulting values would be 4120 95 4057 83 and 3994 71 respectively indicated with red lines on the chart today s session was almost flat and the lo at 4129 86 is within 9 points of the 38 2 retracement level on the way up in wave 3 the index stalled in a range near 4178 heavy blue line a resistance level extending back to march 2021 when the index was on its way up to the all time hi coincidentally the 144 day exponential moving average dark purple curve on the graph is moving through that same range and can contribute to either resistance or support on the graph daily highs are connected with a thin green line lows in red and closings in blue the highs and lows are used in this analysis there are three possibilities at this point 1 the index is close to completing wave 4 down and will soon move into wave 5 up extending beyond the wave 3 hi at 4325 28 2 there will be a deeper retracement probably to another of the typical levels followed by wave 5 up 3 this entire analysis is wrong and the index will continue to fall below 3636 to new lows i think 3 is the least likely but the picture should clarify over the next several days update thursday 8 25 yesterday s sp500 lo at 4119 97 is within a single point of the 382 retracement level at 4120 85 that i mentioned on tuesday this might just be a coincidence but if the index climbs from there to close above the 8 16 hi at 4325 28 that will increase confidence that wave 4 is complete and that wave 5 will continue up to at least 4430 heavy green line on the chart and possibly as high as 4650 before the next corrective wave today it finished at 4200 54 marginally above the blue line at 4176 a support resistance level dating back to april 21 if it falls ba...
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