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a rockies uniform this may or may not be the last bad altitude post ever if it is you can read my ongoing tv and film writing including my third year of american idol handicapping at this new page thanks to everybody who read commented e mailed and especially to ken and the other toaster ers who gave me the opportunity to speak my mind permalink comments 7 the state of the hall 2009 2009 01 20 20 16 author mike carminati blog mike s baseball rants loyalty to petrified opinions never yet broke a chain or freed a human soul in this world and never will inscription under mark twain s bust in the new york university hall of fame the hall of fame voting for 2009 is in the books and the net result is that three new members will be greeted in the hallowed halls or hall actually of cooperstown rickey henderson a no brainer jim rice in his last year of eligibility and joe gordon by the easier of the two bifurcated veterans committees bbwaa vote henderson was arguably the best player eligible not in hall it would be difficult to argue against that assertion given he is the all time leader in stolen bases times caught stealing runs and leadoff home runs and walks when he retired and he had 3000 hits and 535 win shares the only argument seemed to be how a handful of dolts could leave rickey off their ballots henderson appeared on 511 of the 539 ballots cast or rather did not appear on 28 of them however his 94 81 voting percentage was twelfth all time and was just slightly ahead of willie mays not such bad company after all also henderson was 106 votes above the number he needed for election 405 that s the five most votes over the number needed all time behind ripken gwynn ryan and brett here are the top 15 hall of famers by voting percentage pct name yr votes needed diff 98 84 tom seaver 1992 425 323 102 98 79 nolan ryan 1999 491 373 118 98 53 cal ripken 2007 537 409 128 98 23 ty cobb 1936 222 170 52 98 19 george brett 1999 488 373 115 97 83 hank aaron 1982 406 312 94 97 61 tony gwynn 2007 532 409 123 96 52 mike schmidt 1995 444 345 99 96 42 johnny bench 1989 431 336 95 95 82 steve carlton 1994 436 342 94 95 13 babe ruth 1936 215 170 45 94 81 rickey henderson 2009 511 405 106 94 68 willie mays 1979 409 324 85 94 63 carl yastrzemski 1989 423 336 87 93 75 bob feller 1962 150 120 30 henderson is behind some players even contemporaries who were clearly inferior players though hall of famers all gwynn in particular seems unfair but it s hard to gripe when you reach such deservedly rarified air the other two men who will be enshrined were far more controversial because of their selection not omission the argument against rice starts with his being a sentimental pick given he was in the last year of eligibility on the baseball writers ballot at least some have argued that he played in a hitter s park and didn t produce on the road some will say his career was too short he was a defensive liability and that he was a slug around the bases some including me would argue that his teammate and follow outfielder dwight evans was a better player and he fell of the ballot years ago as rob neyer most acerbically put it w e can simply add him to the list of good players bruce sutter catfish hunter and orlando cepeda come to mind who don t really belong in the hall of fame but are there anyway t he election of rice will do little to lower the standards of the institution as it s unlikely that players like dave parker albert belle dick allen and big frank howard now will be knocking on the coop s door even though it should be said all of them were at least rice s equal to quote tina fey cat sound wow albert belle is a hard case to make but luckily for neyer he rarely deigns to make it and what no mention of the execrable choices like tommy mccarthy or the spate of other veterans committee choices more on joe gordon later there are valid arguments in there clearly rice was not a first ballot type candidate but the question remains as to whether he was a viable candidate for enshrinement like mr owl let s find out first as a thumb rule and a thumb rule only where does rice fall in the career win shares list for eligible players who are not in the hall as of 2009 henderson comes in first nearly 150 win shares ahead of the next highest player with 535 rice is tied for 69th with boog powell a player who has more chance to land in the advertising hall of fame at 282 gordon is even lower tied at 155th at 242 win shares but as i said more on him later next we can look at some of the standards that mssr neyer s mentor put together in his hall of fame book many years ago these sorts of arguments are the ones that james cites ad nauseum to make a point in that work the point is anyone can manipulate the facts to meet his opinion james strove to set up some of independent set of tools to analyze candidates in addition what makes rice an ideal candidate for this treatment is that he is the perfect high peak short career type player james designed his tools to weight career milestones as well as single season highlights here are the results for all of the candidates on the 2009 bbwaa ballot note that i added one for meeting the criterion of average hofer win share total 337 name first year yrs elig left black ink avg 40 p 26 b hof avg gray ink avg 185 p 144 b hof avg hof standard avg 50 hof avg hof monitor likely 100 likely hof similar in hall sim elig similar in hall 50 win shares hof avg 336 89 passed bert blyleven 1999 5 16 no 239 yes 50 0 yes 120 5 yes 8 10 yes 339 yes 83 andre dawson 2002 8 11 no 164 yes 43 7 no 118 0 yes 5 8 yes 340 yes 67 tommy john 1995 1 8 no 137 no 44 0 no 111 0 yes 7 10 yes 289 no 33 don mattingly 2001 7 23 no 111 no 34 1 no 133 5 yes 2 7 no 263 no 17 jack morris 2000 6 20 no 190 yes 39 0 no 122 5 yes 6 8 yes 225 no 50 dale murphy 1999 5 31 yes 147 yes 34 3 no 115 5 yes 1 8 no 294 no 50 dave parker 1997 3 26 no 145 yes 41 1 no 125 5 yes 2 8 no 327 no 33 jim rice 1995 1 33 yes 176 yes 42 9 no 146 5 yes 4 6 yes 282 no 67 lee smith 2003 9 12 no 48 no 13 0 no 136 0 yes 1 5 no 198 no 17 alan trammell 2002 8 0 no 48 no 40 4 no 118 5 yes 1 5 no 318 no 17 mark mcgwire 2007 13 36 yes 110 no 42 0 no 169 5 yes 2 4 yes 343 yes 67 harold baines 2007 13 3 no 40 no 43 5 no 66 5 no 3 8 no 307 no 0 rickey henderson 2009 15 50 yes 143 no 52 6 yes 183 5 yes 5 8 yes 535 yes 83 tim raines 2008 14 20 no 114 no 46 6 no 89 5 no 4 7 yes 390 yes 33 mark grace 2009 15 3 no 86 no 38 0 no 60 5 no 1 9 no 294 no 0 matt williams 2009 15 8 no 58 no 29 4 no 70 0 no 1 9 no 241 no 0 mo vaughn 2009 15 4 no 78 no 29 9 no 86 5 no 0 5 no 200 no 0 jay bell 2009 15 0 no 32 no 26 9 no 30 5 no 0 8 no 245 no 0 jesse orosco 2009 15 1 no 17 no 13 0 no 62 0 no 0 8 no 140 no 0 david cone 2009 15 19 no 165 no 39 0 no 103 0 yes 2 9 no 205 no 17 ron gant 2009 15 0 no 52 no 26 0 no 41 5 no 0 6 no 206 no 0 greg vaughn 2009 15 0 no 22 no 25 0 no 50 0 no 0 8 no 199 no 0 dan plesac 2009 15 0 no 17 no 8 0 no 54 0 no 0 7 no 113 no 0 note that henderson and bert blyleven are best candidates by this method meeting 83 of the criteria anyone who is familiar with era is already on the blyleven bandwagon so i will let that dog lie however the next set at 67 is comprised of rice along with andre dawson another oft dissed candidate and mark mcgwire who would be in the hall probably first ballot as well if not for the steroid scandal the next tier at 50 is jack morris and dale murphy two more highly controversial candidates unfortunately tim raines who ranks second in win shares among the bbwaa candidates and who is the one candidate that i would champion above all the rest if i went in for such things comes in at just 33 along with tommy john and dave parker and yet more controversy are these tests conclusive no but it s a preferable approach to searching for facts to fit ones opinion it puts all the candidates on the same level playing field is rice a hofer apparently so according to the standards established for the hall by the players yet far selected is he the best candidate no but one could make an argument that he was a good choice he is better than the 69th showing he put up in career win shares as for my personal opinion of rice for full disclosure frankly me dear i don t give a damn i considered rice a great hitter in my youth but clearly he was not as complete a player as say henderson he is a borderline candidate so why not the hall members make the decision based on their own makeup and before i get to gordon i should mention a number of phantoms who stayed only too briefly on the bbwaa ballot before falling into a pre vets committee purgatory there are a number of very good candidates that got short shrift from the writers some seemed like writer faves like will clark so maybe it s not just personality that causes the writers to overlook or underlook a candidate e g the 28 missing votes for henderson the forgotten and other crappy julianne moore movies with misplaced alien encounters of the top 25 eligible candidates not in the hall based on career win shares just eleven of them were on one of the various hall ballots this year here they are rank win shares name voted by on ballot inducted 1 535 rickey henderson bbwaa y y 2 399 tony mullane veterans 3 394 bill dahlen veterans y 4 390 tim raines bbwaa y 5 363 darrell evans bbwaa 6 358 rusty staub veterans 7 354 sherry magee veterans y 8 351 lou whitaker bbwaa 9 347 dwight evans bbwaa 10 344 george van haltren veterans 11 343 mark mcgwire bbwaa y 12 342 dick allen veterans y 13 340 andre dawson bbwaa y 14 339 jimmy sheckard veterans 14 339 bert blyleven bbwaa y 16 337 bob caruthers veterans 17 334 jim mccormick veterans 18 331 will clark bbwaa 19 329 bobby grich veterans 20 328 tommy leach veterans 21 327 dave parker bbwaa y 22 325 reggie smith veterans 23 324 ron santo veterans y 24 322 willie davis veterans 25 321 vada pinson veterans y 25 321 graig nettles veterans so one could argue that not only are the best candidates not being picked they do not even appear on any ballot bbwaa candidates today either seem to take one of three routes 1 quick election usually in the first year 2 life in limbo staying on the ballot until their time runs out or 3 failing to get the requisite 5 vote to remain on the ballot and falling quickly into oblivion the five percent rule is arbitrary and unfair there are good many current hall of famers for good or ill who would never have made it to the hall had they been dumped upon failing to reach this magic number newly minted hofer joe gordon got just 1 vote in 251 ballots in his first year of eligibility and did not exceed the magic 5 number for another nine before getting the necessary 75 this year he never exceeded 29 in the 17 previous elections and runoffs though to be fair that includes one vote he received in 1945 when he was at war but i digress perhaps using win shares alone is not the best way to gauge whether the best candidates are getting looked at by one of the ballots as with rice we can look at the bill james tests for each to determine his worthiness let s take a look at the eligible players no longer on the bbwaa ballot either off the ballot altogether or shifted to one of the vets committees here they are sorted by win shares vets ineligibles black ink avg 40 p 26 b hof avg gray ink avg 185 p 144 b hof avg hof standard avg 50 hof avg hof monitor likely 100 likely hof similar in hall similar in hall 50 win shares hof avg 336 89 passed tony mullane 28 no 202 yes 51 0 yes 169 0 yes 7 yes 399 yes 83 bill dahlen 4 no 96 no 44 9 no 78 5 no 7 yes 394 yes 33 darrell evans 8 no 82 no 40 3 no 42 0 no 2 no 363 yes 17 rusty staub 4 no 89 no 38 2 no 58 0 no 2 no 358 yes 17 sherry magee 35 yes 210 yes 35 0 no 60 5 no 2 no 354 yes 50 lou whitaker 1 no 31 no 42 8 no 92 0 no 2 no 351 yes 17 dwight evans 15 no 113 no 43 3 no 69 5 no 3 no 347 yes 17 george van haltren 10 no 138 no 57 2 yes 111 0 yes 8 yes 344 yes 67 dick allen 27 yes 159 yes 38 7 no 99 0 no 0 no 342 yes 50 jimmy sheckard 19 no 124 no 29 1 no 43 5 no 1 no 339 yes 17 bob caruthers 27 no 159 no 65 0 yes 174 0 yes 3 no 337 yes 50 jim mccormick 40 yes 220 yes 51 0 yes 184 5 yes 4 no 334 no 67 will clark 13 no 94 no 42 0 no 83 5 no 1 no 331 no 0 bobby grich 8 no 40 no 31 7 no 42 0 no 0 no 329 no 0 tommy leach 11 no 114 no 25 7 no 27 5 no 3 no 328 no 0 reggie smith 4 no 124 no 34 7 no 63 0 no 0 no 325 no 0 ron santo 11 no 147 yes 40 9 no 88 0 no 4 no 324 no 17 willie davis 2 no 64 no 27 5 no 39 5 no 0 no 322 no 0 graig nettles 4 no 56 no 30 8 no 63 0 no 3 no 321 no 0 vada pinson 18 no 135 no 36 3 no 95 0 no 2 no 321 no 0 jack clark 9 no 87 no 34 4 no 27 0 no 0 no 316 no 0 jimmy ryan 12 no 122 no 48 3 no 84 5 no 6 yes 316 no 17 stan hack 11 no 125 no 37 9 no 76 0 no 2 no 316 no 0 ted simmons 0 no 95 no 44 5 no 125 0 yes 4 yes 315 no 33 norm cash 7 no 104 no 29 0 no 50 0 no 0 no 315 no 0 joe torre 12 no 71 no 39 9 no 96 0 no 5 yes 315 no 17 jose cruz 3 no 71 no 27 7 no 27 0 no 0 no 313 no 0 willie randolph 2 no 39 no 32 9 no 92 0 no 3 no 312 no 0 keith hernandez 14 no 118 no 32 0 no 86 0 no 0 no 311 no 0 jimmy wynn 4 no 94 no 30 3 no 36 0 no 0 no 305 no 0 al oliver 16 no 127 no 40 3 no 116 5 yes 4 no 305 no 17 ken singleton 1 no 69 no 30 4 no 38 0 no 0 no 302 no 0 bobby bonds 6 no 132 no 36 0 no 65 5 no 0 no 302 no 0 buddy bell 2 no 33 no 29 7 no 67 0 no 0 no 301 no 0 jim kaat 19 no 128 no 44 0 no 120 5 yes 7 yes 268 no 33 joe gordon 2 no 111 no 29 9 no 87 5 no 0 no 242 no 0 using this method a strong argument could be made for antediluvian pitcher tony mullane sherry magee george van haltren dick allen bob caruthers and jim mccormick of these just magee and allen appeared on a ballot why joe gordon you will note in the comparison above that joe gordon does not meet one of the criteria not one there s not really any kind of coherent argument you could make for gordon s election he s about 100 win shares below the average hall of famer had a remarkably short career he was washed up by age 34 though some credit should be given for his years lost to wwii and had some very sub par years mixed in even before his precipitous decline 1943 his last full season before the war was execrable 79 ops besides his peak was never all that great his best ops was an impressive but far from earth shattering 155 and his career average even with the quick hook was 120 the best argument for gordon s election is that the newly constantly revamped veterans committee had to pick a player before they were jettisoned for good they had to split the vote down to pre 1943 and post 1942 before they could election someone and gordon s ballot consisted of just ten men with 12 voters we are getting closer to ted williams cajoling a couple of minions into picking his old buddies like dom dimaggio the kind of cronyism that the new veterans committee was supposed to stem to be continued permalink comments 2 movin on 2008 10 27 05 13 author alex belth blog bronx banter in 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