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ters such as charles tilly samuel p huntington peter ammann and arthur l stinchcombe followed a political science path and looked at pluralist theory and interest group conflict theory those theories view events as outcomes of a power struggle between competing interest groups in such a model revolutions happen when two or more groups cannot come to terms within the current political system s normal decision making process and when they possess the required resources to employ force in pursuit of their goals 10 the second generation theorists regarded the development of revolutionary situations as a two step process first a pattern of events arises that somehow marks a break or change from previous patterns this change then affects some critical variable the cognitive state of the masses the equilibrium of the system or the magnitude of conflict and resource control of competing interest groups if the effect on the critical variable is of sufficient magnitude a potentially revolutionary situation occurs 10 once this point is reached a negative incident a war a riot a bad harvest that in the past might not have been enough to trigger a revolt will now be enough however if authorities are cognizant of the danger they can still prevent revolution through reform or repression 10 in his influential 1938 book the anatomy of revolution historian crane brinton established a convention by choosing four major political revolutions england 1642 thirteen colonies of america 1775 france 1789 and russia 1917 for comparative study 28 he outlined what he called their uniformities although the american revolution deviated somewhat from the pattern 29 as a result most later comparative studies of revolution substituted china 1949 in their lists but they continued brinton s practice of focusing on four 2 in subsequent decades scholars began to classify hundreds of other events as revolutions see list of revolutions and rebellions their expanded notion of revolution engendered new approaches and explanations the theories of the second generation came under criticism for being too limited in geographical scope and for lacking a means of empirical verification also while second generation theories may have been capable of explaining a specific revolution they could not adequately explain why revolutions failed to occur in other societies experiencing very similar circumstances 2 the criticism of the second generation led to the rise of a third generation of theories put forth by writers such as theda skocpol barrington moore jeffrey paige and others expanding on the old marxist class conflict approach they turned their attention to rural agrarian state conflicts state conflicts with autonomous elites and the impact of interstate economic and military competition on domestic political change 2 in particular skocpol s states and social revolutions 1979 was a landmark book of the third generation skocpol defined revolution as rapid basic transformations of society s state and class structures accompanied and in part carried through by class based revolts from below and she attributed revolutions to a conjunction of multiple conflicts involving state elites and the lower classes 1 in the late 1980s a new body of academic work started questioning the dominance of the third generation s theories the old theories were also dealt a significant blow by a series of revolutionary events that they could not readily explain the iranian and nicaraguan revolutions of 1979 the 1986 people power revolution in the philippines and the 1989 autumn of nations in europe asia and africa saw diverse opposition movements topple seemingly powerful regimes amidst popular demonstrations and mass strikes in nonviolent revolutions 11 2 for some historians the traditional paradigm of revolutions as class struggle driven conflicts centered in europe and involving a violent state versus its discontented people was no longer sufficient to account for the multi class coalitions toppling dictators around the world consequently the study of revolutions began to evolve in three directions as goldstone describes it scholars of revolution extended the third generation s structural theories to a more heterogeneous set of cases well beyond the small number of great social revolutions 2 called for greater attention to conscious agency and contingency in understanding the course and outcome of revolutions observed how studies of social movements for women s rights labor rights and u s civil rights had much in common with studies of revolution and could enrich the latter thus a new literature on contentious politics has developed that attempts to combine insights from the literature on social movements and revolutions to better understand both phenomena 2 the fourth generation increasingly turned to quantitative techniques when formulating its theories political science research moved beyond individual or comparative case studies towards large n statistical analysis assessing the causes and implications of revolution 30 the initial fourth generation books and journal articles generally relied on the polity data series on democratization 31 such analyses like those by a j enterline 32 zeev maoz 33 and edward d mansfield and jack snyder 34 page needed identified a revolution by a significant change in the country s score on polity s autocracy to democracy scale since the 2010s scholars like jeff colgan have argued that the polity data series which evaluates the degree of democratic or autocratic authority in a state s governing institutions based on the openness of executive recruitment constraints on executive authority and political competition is inadequate because it measures democratization not revolution and doesn t account for regimes which come to power by revolution but fail to change the structure of the state and society sufficiently to yield a notable difference in the polity score 35 instead colgan offered a new data set to single out governments that transform the existing social political and economic relationships of the state by overthrowing or rejecting the principal existing institutions of society 36 this data set has been employed to make empirically based contributions to the literature on revolution by finding links between revolution and the likelihood of international disputes revolutions have been further examined from an anthropological perspective drawing on victor turner s writings on ritual and performance bjorn thomassen suggested that revolutions can be understood as liminal moments modern political revolutions very much resemble rituals and can therefore be studied within a process approach 37 this would imply not only a focus on political behavior from below but also a recognition of moments where high and low are relativized subverted or made irrelevant and where the micro and macro levels fuse together in critical conjunctions economist douglass north raised a note of caution about revolutionary change how it is never as revolutionary as its rhetoric would have us believe 38 while the formal rules of laws and constitutions can be changed virtually overnight the informal constraints such as institutional inertia and cultural inheritance do not change quickly and thereby slow down the societal transformation according to north the tension between formal rules and informal constraints is typically resolved by some restructuring of the overall constraints in both directions to produce a new equilibrium that is far less revolutionary than the rhetoric 38 studies have been made on the stability of governments that took by revolution 39 according to academics steven levitsky and lucan way regimes that came to power during revolutions such as china cuba iran and vietnam tend to be among the most durable and long lasting 6 their studies showed that autocracies that emerged from revolutions lasted on average as long as three times as nonrevolutionary regimes and collapsed at a one fifth at the rate of nonrevolutionary systems 40 additionally revolutionary regimes tend to face contestation such as coups and large scale protests at a smaller rate and have more tools to thwart them when such threats emerge 41 revolutionary regimes have cohesive elite structures that minimize the chances of defections and tend to stay loyal during times of turmoil 42 they have strong coercive institutions including loyal militaries that protect the ruling regime s status 43 regimes that emerged from social revolutions also tend to lack independent centers of power that allow for opposition 44 the storming of the bastille 14 july 1789 during the french revolution george washington leader of the american revolution vladimir lenin leader of the bolshevik revolution of 1917 sun yat sen leader of the chinese xinhai revolution in 1911 khana ratsadon a group of military officers and civil officials who staged the siamese revolution of 1932 the fall of the berlin wall and most of the events of the autumn of nations in europe 1989 were sudden and peaceful see also edit age of revolution counterrevolution list of revolutions and rebellions passive revolution political warfare rebellion reformism revolutionary wave right of revolution social movement subversion user revolt references edit 1 2 skocpol theda 1979 states and social revolutions a comparative analysis of france russia and china cambridge university press doi 10 1017 cbo9780511815805 isbn 978 0 521 22439 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 goldstone jack 2001 towards a fourth generation of revolutionary theory annual review of political science 4 139 187 doi 10 1146 annurev polisci 4 1 139 1 2 stone lawrence 1966 theories of revolution world politics 18 2 159 176 doi 10 2307 2009694 issn 1086 3338 jstor 2009694 s2cid 154757362 gunitsky 2018 page needed gunitsky 2017 page needed gunitsky 2021 page needed reus smit 2013 page needed fukuyama 1992 page needed getachew 2019 page needed 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