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a different way this time jazz says i like to look at this kind of stuf as yoy change me too so that s what i did graph 4 the orange line shows year on year percent change for the blue line the numbers on the right hand scale show the percent change values for the orange line the high point something over 30 comes in 1981 it looks to me like there was a general upward trend from 1951 to 1981 and a general downward trend after 1981 i added exponential trends lines for the periods through 1981 and since 1981 graph 5 percent change with exponential trends the exponentials cross directly under that 1981 peak this graph tells us that the difference between overall and primary was accelerating until 1981 and since 1981 has been decelerating graph 3 shows faster exponential growth taking over around 1973 this does not contradict graph 5 it tells us you should find on graph 5 a faster increase from 1973 to 1981 than in the years before 1973 taken together these graphs show increase from 1950 to 1973 faster increase from 1973 to 1981 and decline after 1981 jazzbumpa wants to use these data to argue that reagan blew up the primary budget after 1981 sorry jazz can t be done posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments thursday june 18 2015 i argue that the increase started well before the 1980s yesterday i looked at a graph from j w mason s the myth of reagan s debt the graph shows the overall and primary budget balances for the federal government since 1960 mason says the balances are shown in percent of gdp he adds that troubles my friend jazzbumpa jazz asks mason how do your graphs look as straight values not as ratios to gdp i m always suspicious of the denominator effect following up on his own blog jazzbumpa says j w m is looking at surplus or deficit as a of gdp conclusions based on ratios always make me want to take a different look and then jazz did take a different look he found a source for overall and primary budget balance numbers he made a graph comparable to mason s but showing budget balance in billions of dollars rather than in percent of gdp i grabbed jazzbumpa s source data stuffed it into a spreadsheet and duplicated his graph graph 1 overall orange and primary blue federal budget balance comparing the straight values graph to mason s percent of gdp graph jazzbumpa observed there may not be much distortion from a denominator effect in this specific case and again for the period in question this straight values graph does not look substantially different from jwm s graph with data as percentage of gdp okay that s why we do graphs you know to see how they turn out i had a sudden urge then to subtract the primary balance from the overall balance so that i might see the shape of the space between the two the subtraction would show me the portion of the deficit caused by the payment of interest so to speak it was simple enough to perform the subtraction seeing as how jazz had already done all the legwork graph 2 take graph 1 and subtract the blue line from the orange line well now that is one heck of a lot smoother than what we see on graph 1 allow me to remind you that jazzbumpa created his graph 1 as a version of jw mason s graph that is not expressed as a ratio jazz omits gdp from the calculation because he is concerned that the changes in gdp will give rise to changes in the ratio and that we the viewers of graphs will mistakenly attribute those changes to the numerator to the federal budget deficits when they might in fact arise from the changes in gdp an excellent precaution however looking at graph 2 here at graph 1 and then graph 2 again i want to say that in graph 1 jazz did not manage to eliminate the denominator effect oh he eliminated the denominator for sure but the jogs and jags on his graph are intimately related to gdp the denominator that he eliminated jazz eliminated gdp from his calculation but that did not eliminate the effects of gdp from the federal deficit numbers the federal government always runs big deficits at times of recession graph 3 from november 2010 removing gdp from the debt to gdp calculation does not eliminate the tendency for federal deficits to rise during times of recession removing gdp from the calculation does not remove the effects of changes in gdp from the federal budget balance subtracting the primary deficit from the total deficit eliminated most of those effects that s what the smoothness of graph 2 tells me oh and by the way graph 2 shows a big increase in deficits in the 1980s an increase that began i m tempted to say in the 1950s posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments wednesday june 17 2015 gentlemen start your deficits in the recent post jw mason writes here first are the overall and primary budget balances for the federal government since 1960 the primary budget balance is simply the balance excluding interest payments that is current revenue minus non interest expenditure the balances are shown in percent of gdp with surpluses as positive values and deficits as negative the vertical black lines are drawn at calendar years 1981 and 1990 marking the last pre reagan and first post reagan budgets the black line shows the familiar story the federal government ran small budget deficits through the 1960s and 1970s averaging a bit more than 0 5 percent of gdp then during the 1980s the deficits ballooned to close to 5 percent of gdp during reagan s eight years mason doesn t focus on reagan i stopped the quote there and it sounds like he does but he doesn t also he doesn t buy the familiar story but you probably know that here s what i see in mason s graph using a technique i got from jazzbumpa drawing trend channel lines if there s a proper technique for doing it i don t know i m just connecting low points for one channel line and connecting high points for the other graph 2 the familiar story describes the deficit trend as a flat stable trend at 0 5 percent of gdp in the 1960s and 1970s i don t see that i see a well defined downtrend an expansion of deficits that begins in the 1960s mason does not seem to dispute the familiar story he only says a different story is more important his story is about the red line rather than the black the primary balance rather than the overall balance i won t look at that today today i m just looking at the black line the overall balance and trying to figure out how anyone can claim to see small budget deficits through the 1960s and 1970s averaging a bit more than 0 5 percent of gdp let me add two more lines to the graph to represent that viewpoint graph 3 this is a much smaller channel it starts earlier but it is forced to end sooner in the early 1970s and it is already pierced in the 1960s by an expanding deficit mason argues that the increase in federal borrowing during the 1980s was mostly due to higher interest rate not tax and spending decisions i argue that the increase started well before the 1980s posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments tuesday june 16 2015 inflation was still high from idiosyncratic whisk and look at what happened when the reagan era supply side policies replaced the demand side policies of the 1970s i think most people would be surprised to learn that nonfinancial corporate profits didn t top the 1979 level until 1992 after 12 years of the reagan and bush presidencies during a decade when democrats sponsored tax cuts and the new york times was against the minimum wage and these are nominal figures while inflation was still high during this period inflation was still high during the 1979 1992 period that s not the point of kevin erdman s post it s more like deep background but i focus on those words because this is the second time i ve seen that thought expressed in less than a week jw mason writes inflation was still quite high in the early 80s quite high is not a quantitative statement or maybe it is but you cannot divide something by quite high so it s tough to argue with mason it s a little easier to argue with erdman who says inflation was still high to me inflation was still high before the 1982 recession but not after graph 1 three measures of inflation the big drop is obvious maybe erdman is thinking over three percent is high inflation and under three percent is not then i guess maybe he could argue inflation was high until 1992 i guess inflation was way lower after 1983 than before 1983 using annual numbers figuring price level changes for 20 year periods for all three series and averaging the three prices rose 204 during the 1963 1983 period compared to 71 during the 1983 2003 period 71 is too much yeah but it is way less than 204 figuring 10 year periods prices rose 112 during the 1973 1983 period versus 40 during the 1983 1993 period again way less after 1983 prices rose less after 1983 than before a lot less if you want to say inflation was still high or even quite high after 1983 fine whatever but inflation was way less after 1983 than before oh and inflation came down a lot quicker than the federal funds rate graph 2 three measures of inflation again and the federal funds rate black well i thought i was done revising this post but then i found a bonus quote jw mason commented on the myth of reagan s debt at his old blog if we are comparing the 1980s to the 1960s and 1970s the denominator does not make much difference nominal gdp growth was roughly equal in all these decades for more recent periods the denominator has a bigger effect that s phrased in a way that i can check the numbers that s what i like nominal gdp annual percent change from ten years earlier year percent change 1960 81 1970 98 1980 166 1990 109 2000 72 2010 46 well ngdp growth in the 1980s 109 was more than it was in the 1960s 98 roughly equal is a crude approximation but i take mason s point okay and yes growth drops off in recent years so i have to accept this quote from jw mason but i don t have to like it the breakdown of data by decade is convenient but it smothers key facts for example it combines the low inflation of the early 1960s with the high inflation of the late 1960s it combines the falling from peak inflation of the early 1980s with the already having fallen inflation of the mid and later 1980s these facts are key because high inflation is at times a huge part of nominal gdp growth and mason is evaluating the growth of nominal gdp talking about data in terms of decades rather than in terms of trend paths lets generalizations arise that are more tidy than precise all of this matters to me because i have focused on inflation and i think i have a good feel for how inflation affects the debt to growth ratio but i have not considered the level of interest rates mason considers both and finds the level of interest rates the more significant factor it s interesting to me because if mason is right then maybe i m wrong that s always an interesting thing to find out posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments monday june 15 2015 technology from technology in the medieval age agricultural tools the way the crops were grown changed in medieval europe when farmers changed from a two field crop rotation to a three field crop rotation beginning in the 8th century according to white 1962 charlemagne himself thought of this agricultural innovation under a two field rotation half the land was planted in a year while the other half lay fallow then in the next year the two fields were reversed under three field rotation the land was divided into three parts one section was planted in the fall with winter wheat or rye the next spring the second field was planted with other crops such as peas lentils or beans and the third field was left fallow the three fields were rotated in this manner so that every three years a field would rest and be unplanted under the two field system if one has a total of 600 fertile acres of land one would only plant 300 acres under the new three field rotation system one would plant and thereby harvest 400 acres but the additional crops had a more significant effect than mere productivity since the spring crops were mostly legumes they increased the overall nutrition of the people of northern europe this too the plow is considered to be one of the most important and oldest technologies developed in fact the history of the plow stretches back to the neolithic new stone age that began about 8000 bc in mesopotamia in the middle ages however the plow was radically improved and was used with multiple oxen teams this innovation facilitated the clearing of the forests of fertile northwest europe gies gies 1994 before this time because of the nature of the soil it was difficult to plow these fields and obviously this inability to cultivate these fields reduced the population of northwest europe after the redesign of the plow allowing the plow to plow the heavier and wetter soil of northwest europe there was a dramatic increase in agricultural productivity and subsequently the population of these areas finally from medieval technology pages horse harness the horse collar seems first to have been used in europe around the 8th or 9th century white p 61 this may have been a northern european development or as both white white 1962 p 61 and usher usher 1954 p 183 suggest imported from the east the horse collar rests on both the shoulders and the breast of the horse the traces and thus the traction points are over the horse s shoulders not high on the horse s back this allows the horse to develop much more power without putting any pressure on its neck use of the horse collar seems to have spread rapidly though not uniformly through european agriculture and heavy freight hauling though in neither case did the use of oxen ever totally vanish langdon 1986 pp 19 20 oxen were cheaper than horses but horses are 50 faster than oxen and can work more hours during the day but they were no stronger than oxen in total pulling force were more difficult to care for and required specialized and more expensive food nevertheless by the late middle ages the use of the horse in agriculture became very common gimpel 1976 p 35 three field rotation an improved plow and the horse collar i love this stuff credits the technology in the medieval age page is under the supervision of dr patricia backer the chair of the department of technology and the department of aviation at san jose state university in san jose ca that page links to the horse harness page the medieval technology pages horse harness page is maintained by paul j gans copyright paul j gans 1997 2002 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday june 14 2015 recap that stimulus money the guy says shovel ready jobs two trillion dollars he says that money went all around the world they didn t spend any of it here i m not sure exactly what the guy s complaint is as of 13 june 2015 two trillion dollars zero point seven eight seven trillion more like 787 billion two trillion would have been a good number if they spent the whole thing in about 365 days but...
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